A Quantitative Model of the Urban Rail Congestion Propagation under Oversaturated Conditions

EasyChair Preprint no. 228

Abstract

Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper proposes a quantitative model for capturing the congestion prorogation process through formalizing the propagation by a congestion susceptibility recovery process. Apart from that, a model for calculating congestion propagation rate is constructed, which is the key parameter in the former quantitative model. A grey system model is also introduced to quantify the propagation rate under the joint effect of six influential factors: passenger flow, train headway, passenger transfer convenience, time of congestion occurring, initial congested station and station capacity. A numerical example is used to illustrate the congestion propagation process and to demonstrate the improvements after taking corresponding measures.

Keyphrases: congestion propagation model, congestion propagation rate, grey system model, oversaturated conditions

@Booklet{EasyChair:228,
  author = {Ziling Zeng and Taixun Li},
  title = {A Quantitative Model of the Urban Rail Congestion Propagation under Oversaturated Conditions  },
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 228},
  doi = {10.29007/4q5z},
  year = {EasyChair, 2018}}