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Improving Australian Commercial Property Market Forecasting by Mapping Structural Changes in Built Environment

14 pagesPublished: October 23, 2017


Property market forecasting is an integral element of decision-making. It is critical that property analysts employ a wide - range of models and techniques for property forecasting. These models have one overriding aim of predicting reasonable estimates of key dependent variables (demand, supply, rent, yield, vacancy and net absorption) based on the independent variables of core economic activities. However, a broad-fronted social, economic, technical, political and ecological evolution can throw up sudden, unexpected shocks that result in a possibility of sceptical to unknown risk factors. These structural changes decrease, even eliminate predictability of property market performance. Hence, forecasting beyond econometrics is raised as the research problem in this study. This study follows a qualitative research approach, conducting semi-structured interviews with open-ended questions. The primary data were collected from 22 property stakeholders within Australia. Structural changes framework in the built environment is developed and categorised under PESTEL (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) factors. This framework was developed theoretically and subjected to empirical validation and improvement. Property conversions, integrated property functions in a single location, ‘Give and Take’ effect in property markets, NABERS compliance could be seen as emerging structural changes in the Australian commercial property markets. The understanding of the impact on the property market will provide a subjective overlay to improve the econometric forecasts.

Keyphrases: built environment, Commercial Property Market, Forecasting, structural changes

In: Marsha Lamb (editor). AUBEA 2017: Australasian Universities Building Education Association Conference 2017, vol 1, pages 87--100

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