IWEEE 2024: FOURTH ITALIAN WORKSHOP OF ECONOMETRICS AND EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS: "CLIMATE AND ENERGY ECONOMETRICS"
PROGRAM

Days: Thursday, January 25th Friday, January 26th

Thursday, January 25th

View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview

09:00-10:30 Session 2A: Oil Shocks
Location: Room D102
09:00
Identification of expectational shocks in the oil market using OPEC announcements (abstract)
09:20
Oil shocks and US banks: a SVAR approach (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marco Lorusso
09:40
An empirical inquiry into the redistributive nature of energy price shocks (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mario Martinoli
10:00
Partially identified heteroskedastic SVARs: an application to the market for crude oil (abstract)
09:00-10:30 Session 2B: ESG and Commodity Prices
Location: Room D103
09:00
ESG risk exposure: a tale of two tails (abstract)
PRESENTER: Runfeng Yang
09:20
Tail risks of energy transition metal prices for energy and non-energy commodity prices (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Ugolini
09:40
What common structure behind the ESG ratings? (abstract)
10:00
Higher moments in the fundamental specification of electricity forward prices (abstract)
09:00-10:30 Session 2C: Macroeconomics, Energy and the Russia-Ukraine War
Location: Room E422
09:00
Monitoring the economy in real time: trends and gaps in real activity and prices (abstract)
09:20
The role of energy consumption on economic growth in the decarbonization era. Evidence from panels of heterogeneous countries. (abstract)
09:40
International market analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war (abstract)
PRESENTER: Caterina Morelli
10:00
The economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European countries – a SVAR approach (abstract)
PRESENTER: Jonas Bruhin
10:30-11:00Coffee Break
11:00-12:30 Session 3A: Energy and Inflation
Location: Room D102
11:00
Natural gas prices and unnatural propagation effects: the role of inflation expectations in the Euro area (abstract)
PRESENTER: Maximilian Boeck
11:20
The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marta Maria Pisa
11:40
Gas price shocks and euro area inflation (abstract)
12:00
Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation (abstract)
PRESENTER: Chiara Casoli
11:00-12:30 Session 3B: Climate Economic Effects
Location: Room D103
11:00
Intermittency and the potential of wind energy for CO2 abatement (abstract)
11:25
From climate chat to climate shock: Non-linear impacts of transition risk in CDS markets (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca De Angelis
11:50
Raided by the storm: impacts on income and wages from three decades of U.S. thunderstorms (abstract)
PRESENTER: Matteo Coronese
11:00-12:30 Session 3C: Methods/1
Location: Room E423
11:00
A new way to Regime Switching Autoregressions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Frederik Krabbe
11:20
Invalid proxies and changes in volatility (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Fanelli
11:40
Unobserved component models, approximate filters and dynamic adaptive mixture models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Enzo D'Innocenzo
12:00
Estimating nonparametric conditional frontiers and efficiencies: a new approach (abstract)
11:00-12:30 Session 3D: Climate Forecasting
Location: Room E422
11:00
Taking advantage of biased proxies for forecast evaluation (abstract)
11:20
Adaptive now- and forecasting of global temperatures under smooth structural changes (abstract)
11:40
Forecasting global temperatures by exploiting cointegration with radiative forcing (abstract)
12:00
Evolving climate risk in Europe (abstract)
12:30-13:30Lunch Break
13:30-14:00 Session 4: Book Presentation
Location: Room D102
13:30
Fundamentals of Supervised Machine Learning: With Applications in Python, R, and Stata (abstract)
14:00-15:00 Session 5: Keynote/1
Location: Room D102
14:00
A Full-Information Approach to Granular Instrumental Variables (abstract)
15:00-16:30 Session 6A: Commodity Prices
Location: Room D102
15:00
Global money supply and energy and non-energy commodity prices: A MS-TV-VAR approach (abstract)
PRESENTER: Stefano Grassi
15:20
Causality, connectedness and volatility pass-through among energy-metal-stock-carbon markets: new evidence from the EU (abstract)
PRESENTER: Parisa Pakrooh
15:40
Understanging the future of critical raw materials for the energy transition: a SVAR model for the US market (abstract)
PRESENTER: Ilenia Romani
16:00
Revisiting the dynamic factor approach for yield curve modelling (abstract)
15:00-16:30 Session 6B: Energy Markets
Location: Room D103
15:00
Estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand in correlated random coefficient models with endogeneity (abstract)
PRESENTER: Michael Bates
15:20
Structural change in asset correlations and macroeconomic fundamentals: Application to crack spreads (abstract)
15:40
Tail events in the oil market (abstract)
16:00
Is the price cap for gas useful? Evidence from European countries (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Rossini
15:00-16:30 Session 6C: Climate and the Macroeconomy
Location: Room E422
15:00
Climate risk and investment in equities in Europe: a Panel SVAR approach (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Cipollini
15:20
The time-evolving impact of climate and macroeconomic uncertainty (abstract)
15:40
Macroeconomic spillovers of weather shocks across U.S. states (abstract)
16:00
Parallel PAThs: structural scenarios for environmental impacts in a Bayesian Structural GVAR model (abstract)
PRESENTER: Daniele Valenti
15:00-16:30 Session 6D: Methods/2
Location: Room E423
15:00
Judgment can spur long memory (abstract)
15:20
Adaptive local VAR for dynamic economic policy uncertainty spillover (abstract)
PRESENTER: Niels Gillmann
15:40
Observation-driven models with non-stationary stochastic trends and mixed causal non-causal dynamics (abstract)
PRESENTER: Gabriele Mingoli
16:00
LASSO-based outlier detection and estimation for structural time series (abstract)
PRESENTER: Paolo Maranzano
16:30-17:00Coffee Break
17:00-18:30 Session 7A: Methods/3
Location: Room D102
17:00
Changepoint detection in functional data with empirical energy distances (abstract)
PRESENTER: Lorenzo Trapani
17:20
Robust estimation for Threshold Autoregressive Moving-Average models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Greta Goracci
17:40
Impulse response functions in nonlinear VARs: time varying VARs (abstract)
PRESENTER: Elena Pesavento
18:00
Fully Modified OLS Estimation and Inference for Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions with Common Integrated Regressors (abstract)
PRESENTER: Martin Wagner
17:00-18:30 Session 7B: Forecasting in the Energy Sector
Location: Room E423
17:00
Forecasting oil consumption and production using the Statistical Review of World Energy (abstract)
PRESENTER: Jan Ditzen
17:20
Renewable sources and short-to mid-term electricity price forecasting (abstract)
17:40
Corporate failure prediction in the U.S. energy sector: a survival analysis approach (abstract)
18:00
Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Onorante
17:00-18:30 Session 7C: Methods/4
Location: Room D103
17:00
Hierarchical DCC-HEAVY model for high-dimensional covariance matrices (abstract)
17:20
The fixed-b limiting distribution and the ERP of HAR tests under nonstationarity (abstract)
17:40
The spherical parametrization for correlation matrices and its computational advantages (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Pedini
18:00
Consistent and efficient misspecification resistant model selection for vectorial time series models (abstract)
17:00-18:30 Session 7D: Climate Dynamics
Location: Room E422
17:00
Climate policy analysis: efficient estimation of a semiparametric panel data model with spatial and factor dependence (abstract)
17:25
Explaining glacial dynamics with singular and non-Gaussian Vector Autoregressions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Alessio Moneta
17:50
Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate (abstract)
Friday, January 26th

View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview

09:00-10:30 Session 8A: Energy Transition and Resources
Location: Room E423
09:00
The capitalization of energy labels into house prices. Evidence from Italy. (abstract)
09:25
Accounting for spillovers effects and temporal dynamics on the impact of renewables on labour force: a world perspective (abstract)
09:50
Resource depletion, technological change and market structure (abstract)
09:00-10:30 Session 8B: Energy Price Forecasting
Location: Room D102
09:00
Quantifying uncertainty in electricity prices forecasting: models and methods (abstract)
09:25
Forecasting natural gas prices with spatio-temporal copula-based time series models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Antonia Pappert
09:50
Forecasting the real price of carbon (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Bastianin
09:00-10:30 Session 8C: Green Finance
Location: Room D103
09:00
Green risk in Europe (abstract)
PRESENTER: Elisa Ossola
09:20
Unpacking the ESG ratings: does one size fit all? (abstract)
PRESENTER: Monica Billio
09:40
Paying or being paid to be green? (abstract)
PRESENTER: Rupali Vashisht
10:00
Greeness confusion and the greenium (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca De Angelis
09:00-10:30 Session 8D: Climate Economics
Location: Room E422
09:00
Informal employment from migration shocks (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marica Valente
09:25
Financing constraints, climate policies and carbon emissions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mattia Guerini
09:50
Critical minerals and Artificial Intelligence: a theory of the back-ended risk premium (abstract)
10:30-11:00Coffee Break
11:00-12:30 Session 9A: Methods/5
Location: Room D102
11:00
Bootstrap inference in the presence of bias (abstract)
PRESENTER: Edoardo Zanelli
11:20
Bootstrapping trending time-varying coefficient panel models (abstract)
11:40
(Quantile) spillover indexes: simulation-based evidence, confidence intervals and a decomposition (abstract)
12:00
Heterogeneous Panel VAR model with unknown group factor structure (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marco Barassi
11:00-12:30 Session 9B: Temperature Economic Effects
Location: Room E423
11:00
Temperature and growth: a Panel Mixed Frequency VAR analysis using NUTS2 data (abstract)
PRESENTER: Fabio Parla
11:25
What does it take to control global temperatures? A toolbox for estimating the impact of economic policies on climate. (abstract)
11:50
Temperature and health capital: long-term consequences of exposure in early childhood (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giulia Valenti
11:00-12:30 Session 9C: Oil Markets
Location: Room D103
11:00
How political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices? (abstract)
PRESENTER: Jamel Saadaoui
11:20
Reasons behind words: OPEC narratives and the oil market (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marc Joëts
11:40
The blind spot of the efficient market hypothesis, uncertainty, and a great pool with varying depth: tales from global crude oil markets (abstract)
PRESENTER: Sania Wadud
12:00
Not all oil types are alike (abstract)
PRESENTER: Peter Öhlinger
11:00-12:30 Session 9D: Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting
Location: Room E422
11:00
Nowcasting inflation at quantiles: causality from commodities (abstract)
PRESENTER: Sara Boni
11:25
Modelling and forecasting energy market cycles: a Generalized Smooth Transition approach (abstract)
11:50
Identifying the effects of financial and housing shocks on economic activity: A medium- run SVAR perspective (abstract)
PRESENTER: Federico Giri
11:00-12:30 Session 9E: Energy Shocks
Location: Room E312
11:00
Sudden stop: supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market (abstract)
PRESENTER: Jochen Güntner
11:20
Identifying oil supply news shocks and their effects on the global oil market (abstract)
PRESENTER: Arthur Thomas
11:40
Energy shocks, pandemics and the macroeconomy (abstract)
PRESENTER: Aldo Paolillo
12:00
Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Gazzani
12:30-14:00Lunch Break
14:00-15:00 Session 10: Keynote/2
Location: Room D102
14:00
Econometric Forecasting of Climate Change (abstract)