PROGRAM
Days: Thursday, January 25th Friday, January 26th
Thursday, January 25th
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
09:00-10:30 Session 2A: Oil Shocks
Chair:
Location: Room D102
09:00 | Identification of expectational shocks in the oil market using OPEC announcements (abstract) |
09:20 | Oil shocks and US banks: a SVAR approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Marco Lorusso |
09:40 | An empirical inquiry into the redistributive nature of energy price shocks (abstract) PRESENTER: Mario Martinoli |
10:00 | Partially identified heteroskedastic SVARs: an application to the market for crude oil (abstract) PRESENTER: Emanuele Bacchiocchi |
09:00-10:30 Session 2B: ESG and Commodity Prices
Chair:
Location: Room D103
09:00 | ESG risk exposure: a tale of two tails (abstract) PRESENTER: Runfeng Yang |
09:20 | Tail risks of energy transition metal prices for energy and non-energy commodity prices (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Ugolini |
09:40 | What common structure behind the ESG ratings? (abstract) PRESENTER: Gianluca Gucciardi |
10:00 | Higher moments in the fundamental specification of electricity forward prices (abstract) PRESENTER: Angelica Gianfreda |
09:00-10:30 Session 2C: Macroeconomics, Energy and the Russia-Ukraine War
Chair:
Location: Room E422
09:00 | Monitoring the economy in real time: trends and gaps in real activity and prices (abstract) PRESENTER: Filippo Pellegrino |
09:20 | The role of energy consumption on economic growth in the decarbonization era. Evidence from panels of heterogeneous countries. (abstract) |
09:40 | International market analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war (abstract) PRESENTER: Caterina Morelli |
10:00 | The economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European countries – a SVAR approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Jonas Bruhin |
10:30-11:00Coffee Break
11:00-12:30 Session 3A: Energy and Inflation
Chair:
Location: Room D102
11:00 | Natural gas prices and unnatural propagation effects: the role of inflation expectations in the Euro area (abstract) PRESENTER: Maximilian Boeck |
11:20 | The effects of temperature shocks on energy prices and inflation in the Euro Area (abstract) PRESENTER: Marta Maria Pisa |
11:40 | Gas price shocks and euro area inflation (abstract) PRESENTER: Jakob Feveile Adolfsen |
12:00 | Energy shocks in the Euro area: disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation (abstract) PRESENTER: Chiara Casoli |
11:00-12:30 Session 3B: Climate Economic Effects
Chair:
Location: Room D103
11:00 | Intermittency and the potential of wind energy for CO2 abatement (abstract) PRESENTER: Bent Jesper Christensen |
11:25 | From climate chat to climate shock: Non-linear impacts of transition risk in CDS markets (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca De Angelis |
11:50 | Raided by the storm: impacts on income and wages from three decades of U.S. thunderstorms (abstract) PRESENTER: Matteo Coronese |
11:00-12:30 Session 3C: Methods/1
Chair:
Location: Room E423
11:00 | A new way to Regime Switching Autoregressions (abstract) PRESENTER: Frederik Krabbe |
11:20 | Invalid proxies and changes in volatility (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Fanelli |
11:40 | Unobserved component models, approximate filters and dynamic adaptive mixture models (abstract) PRESENTER: Enzo D'Innocenzo |
12:00 | Estimating nonparametric conditional frontiers and efficiencies: a new approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Camilla Mastromarco |
11:00-12:30 Session 3D: Climate Forecasting
Chair:
Location: Room E422
11:00 | Taking advantage of biased proxies for forecast evaluation (abstract) PRESENTER: Giorgio Vocalelli |
11:20 | Adaptive now- and forecasting of global temperatures under smooth structural changes (abstract) |
11:40 | Forecasting global temperatures by exploiting cointegration with radiative forcing (abstract) |
12:00 | Evolving climate risk in Europe (abstract) |
12:30-13:30Lunch Break
13:30-14:00 Session 4: Book Presentation
Chair:
Location: Room D102
13:30 | Fundamentals of Supervised Machine Learning: With Applications in Python, R, and Stata (abstract) |
14:00-15:00 Session 5: Keynote/1
Chair:
Location: Room D102
14:00 | A Full-Information Approach to Granular Instrumental Variables (abstract) |
15:00-16:30 Session 6A: Commodity Prices
Chair:
Location: Room D102
15:00 | Global money supply and energy and non-energy commodity prices: A MS-TV-VAR approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Stefano Grassi |
15:20 | Causality, connectedness and volatility pass-through among energy-metal-stock-carbon markets: new evidence from the EU (abstract) PRESENTER: Parisa Pakrooh |
15:40 | Understanging the future of critical raw materials for the energy transition: a SVAR model for the US market (abstract) PRESENTER: Ilenia Romani |
16:00 | Revisiting the dynamic factor approach for yield curve modelling (abstract) PRESENTER: Riccardo Lucchetti |
15:00-16:30 Session 6B: Energy Markets
Chair:
Location: Room D103
15:00 | Estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand in correlated random coefficient models with endogeneity (abstract) PRESENTER: Michael Bates |
15:20 | Structural change in asset correlations and macroeconomic fundamentals: Application to crack spreads (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesca Di Iorio |
15:40 | Tail events in the oil market (abstract) PRESENTER: Massimiliano Marcellino |
16:00 | Is the price cap for gas useful? Evidence from European countries (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Rossini |
15:00-16:30 Session 6C: Climate and the Macroeconomy
Chair:
Location: Room E422
15:00 | Climate risk and investment in equities in Europe: a Panel SVAR approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Cipollini |
15:20 | The time-evolving impact of climate and macroeconomic uncertainty (abstract) |
15:40 | Macroeconomic spillovers of weather shocks across U.S. states (abstract) PRESENTER: Graziano Moramarco |
16:00 | Parallel PAThs: structural scenarios for environmental impacts in a Bayesian Structural GVAR model (abstract) PRESENTER: Daniele Valenti |
15:00-16:30 Session 6D: Methods/2
Chair:
Location: Room E423
15:00 | Judgment can spur long memory (abstract) |
15:20 | Adaptive local VAR for dynamic economic policy uncertainty spillover (abstract) PRESENTER: Niels Gillmann |
15:40 | Observation-driven models with non-stationary stochastic trends and mixed causal non-causal dynamics (abstract) PRESENTER: Gabriele Mingoli |
16:00 | LASSO-based outlier detection and estimation for structural time series (abstract) PRESENTER: Paolo Maranzano |
16:30-17:00Coffee Break
17:00-18:30 Session 7A: Methods/3
Chair:
Location: Room D102
17:00 | Changepoint detection in functional data with empirical energy distances (abstract) PRESENTER: Lorenzo Trapani |
17:20 | Robust estimation for Threshold Autoregressive Moving-Average models (abstract) PRESENTER: Greta Goracci |
17:40 | Impulse response functions in nonlinear VARs: time varying VARs (abstract) PRESENTER: Elena Pesavento |
18:00 | Fully Modified OLS Estimation and Inference for Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions with Common Integrated Regressors (abstract) PRESENTER: Martin Wagner |
17:00-18:30 Session 7B: Forecasting in the Energy Sector
Chair:
Location: Room E423
17:00 | Forecasting oil consumption and production using the Statistical Review of World Energy (abstract) PRESENTER: Jan Ditzen |
17:20 | Renewable sources and short-to mid-term electricity price forecasting (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesco Ravazzolo |
17:40 | Corporate failure prediction in the U.S. energy sector: a survival analysis approach (abstract) |
18:00 | Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Onorante |
17:00-18:30 Session 7C: Methods/4
Chair:
Location: Room D103
17:00 | Hierarchical DCC-HEAVY model for high-dimensional covariance matrices (abstract) PRESENTER: Emilija Dzuverovic |
17:20 | The fixed-b limiting distribution and the ERP of HAR tests under nonstationarity (abstract) |
17:40 | The spherical parametrization for correlation matrices and its computational advantages (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Pedini |
18:00 | Consistent and efficient misspecification resistant model selection for vectorial time series models (abstract) PRESENTER: Simone Giannerini |
17:00-18:30 Session 7D: Climate Dynamics
Chair:
Location: Room E422
17:00 | Climate policy analysis: efficient estimation of a semiparametric panel data model with spatial and factor dependence (abstract) PRESENTER: Massimiliano Mazzanti |
17:25 | Explaining glacial dynamics with singular and non-Gaussian Vector Autoregressions (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessio Moneta |
17:50 | Entry, exit, and market structure in a changing climate (abstract) PRESENTER: Michele Cascarano |
Friday, January 26th
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
09:00-10:30 Session 8A: Energy Transition and Resources
Chair:
Location: Room E423
09:00 | The capitalization of energy labels into house prices. Evidence from Italy. (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessandro Mistretta |
09:25 | Accounting for spillovers effects and temporal dynamics on the impact of renewables on labour force: a world perspective (abstract) PRESENTER: Anna Gloria Billè |
09:50 | Resource depletion, technological change and market structure (abstract) PRESENTER: Vincenzo De Lipsis |
09:00-10:30 Session 8B: Energy Price Forecasting
Chair:
Location: Room D102
09:00 | Quantifying uncertainty in electricity prices forecasting: models and methods (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessandro Giovannelli |
09:25 | Forecasting natural gas prices with spatio-temporal copula-based time series models (abstract) PRESENTER: Antonia Pappert |
09:50 | Forecasting the real price of carbon (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Bastianin |
09:00-10:30 Session 8C: Green Finance
Chair:
Location: Room D103
09:00 | Green risk in Europe (abstract) PRESENTER: Elisa Ossola |
09:20 | Unpacking the ESG ratings: does one size fit all? (abstract) PRESENTER: Monica Billio |
09:40 | Paying or being paid to be green? (abstract) PRESENTER: Rupali Vashisht |
10:00 | Greeness confusion and the greenium (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca De Angelis |
09:00-10:30 Session 8D: Climate Economics
Chair:
Location: Room E422
09:00 | Informal employment from migration shocks (abstract) PRESENTER: Marica Valente |
09:25 | Financing constraints, climate policies and carbon emissions (abstract) PRESENTER: Mattia Guerini |
09:50 | Critical minerals and Artificial Intelligence: a theory of the back-ended risk premium (abstract) PRESENTER: Joaquin Vespignani |
10:30-11:00Coffee Break
11:00-12:30 Session 9A: Methods/5
Chair:
Location: Room D102
11:00 | Bootstrap inference in the presence of bias (abstract) PRESENTER: Edoardo Zanelli |
11:20 | Bootstrapping trending time-varying coefficient panel models (abstract) PRESENTER: Bernhard van der Sluis |
11:40 | (Quantile) spillover indexes: simulation-based evidence, confidence intervals and a decomposition (abstract) |
12:00 | Heterogeneous Panel VAR model with unknown group factor structure (abstract) PRESENTER: Marco Barassi |
11:00-12:30 Session 9B: Temperature Economic Effects
Chair:
Location: Room E423
11:00 | Temperature and growth: a Panel Mixed Frequency VAR analysis using NUTS2 data (abstract) PRESENTER: Fabio Parla |
11:25 | What does it take to control global temperatures? A toolbox for estimating the impact of economic policies on climate. (abstract) PRESENTER: Guillaume Chevillon |
11:50 | Temperature and health capital: long-term consequences of exposure in early childhood (abstract) PRESENTER: Giulia Valenti |
11:00-12:30 Session 9C: Oil Markets
Chair:
Location: Room D103
11:00 | How political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices? (abstract) PRESENTER: Jamel Saadaoui |
11:20 | Reasons behind words: OPEC narratives and the oil market (abstract) PRESENTER: Marc Joëts |
11:40 | The blind spot of the efficient market hypothesis, uncertainty, and a great pool with varying depth: tales from global crude oil markets (abstract) PRESENTER: Sania Wadud |
12:00 | Not all oil types are alike (abstract) PRESENTER: Peter Öhlinger |
11:00-12:30 Session 9D: Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting
Chair:
Location: Room E422
11:00 | Nowcasting inflation at quantiles: causality from commodities (abstract) PRESENTER: Sara Boni |
11:25 | Modelling and forecasting energy market cycles: a Generalized Smooth Transition approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessandra Canepa |
11:50 | Identifying the effects of financial and housing shocks on economic activity: A medium- run SVAR perspective (abstract) PRESENTER: Federico Giri |
11:00-12:30 Session 9E: Energy Shocks
Chair:
Location: Room E312
11:00 | Sudden stop: supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market (abstract) PRESENTER: Jochen Güntner |
11:20 | Identifying oil supply news shocks and their effects on the global oil market (abstract) PRESENTER: Arthur Thomas |
11:40 | Energy shocks, pandemics and the macroeconomy (abstract) PRESENTER: Aldo Paolillo |
12:00 | Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Gazzani |
12:30-14:00Lunch Break
14:00-15:00 Session 10: Keynote/2
Chair:
Location: Room D102
14:00 | Econometric Forecasting of Climate Change (abstract) |