AIWEST-DR 2022: THE 14TH ACEH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP AND EXPO ON SUSTAINABLE TSUNAMI DISASTER RECOVERY
PROGRAM FOR THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29TH
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08:00-09:00 Registration and Breakfast

Danishes and quiches will be available along with coffee and tea. 

Location: ABS Lobby
09:00-10:00 Session A1: Opening Remarks

Dr Aaron Opdyke and Dr Liberty de Rivera (Conference Co-Chairs, The University of Sydney)

Professor Syamsidik (Director, Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center, Universitas Syiah Kuala)

Professor Marwan (Rector, Universitas Syiah Kuala)

10:00-10:45 Session K1: Thoughts and provocations for re-imagining disaster

Professor JC Gaillard (Waipapa Taumata Rau / The University of Auckland)

10:45-11:00 Break and Group Photo

Coffee and tea will be available.

11:00-12:00 Session K2: Half-way through Sendai Framework - Capturing the progress on including persons with disabilities in DRR

Dr Alex Robinson (The University of Melbourne)

Dr Michelle Villeneuve (The University of Sydney)

Ms Leyla Craig (The University of Sydney)

Mr Rofikul Hidayat (Arbeiter Samariter Bund Office)

12:00-13:00 Lunch

Sandwiches and drinks will be provided. Halal and vegetarian options will be available.

Location: ABS Lobby
13:00-14:15 Session 1A: Priority 1 - Education and knowledge production in DRR
13:00
The possibility of geographic area and time distribution of DRR education to represent disaster collective memory: A time geographic study of newspapers in Japan
PRESENTER: Ryo Saito

ABSTRACT. Measuring memory is constructed in a group (i.e., collective memory) is relatively difficult, but the measurement is important. In disaster science, collective memory of disasters (disaster collective memory) drive to prepare for the future disasters. Revealing how such memory is encoded, stored, and forgotten, as well as how it expands, will enhance understanding not only of the features of collective memory in itself, but of a preparing process. A previous study has discussed the trends in fading memories of the disasters and how to prevent them (e.g., Shuto, 2008). The study has hypothesized six-phase of disaster memory fading, and suggested two methods to prevent. One is “disaster for disaster” and the other is “campaign”. The former means to experience disaster again. The latter is “a reminder driving to preparation”. In this study, it may be one of the campaigns, DRR education at schools and in local communities can be thought an effort to keep memory from fading away. It could be assumed, as shown below, that a disaster collective memory is inherent in DRR education. Enhancement of traffic safety education in a particular area, for example, implies the presence of a tragic accident in that area. This in turn leads to encoding and consolidation of collective memory of the accident (sharing the fact). The education remains for a while and makes any serious accidents no longer happen, but the education suffers to become a formality as time goes by, the memory will be gradually forgotten, and the education will no longer provided. This means the memory will no longer be retrieved at last. A relation between education and memory could also appear between disaster collective memory and DRR education. The assumption could bring to light the possibility that examining the time and area distribution of DRR education led to an inquiry into disaster collective memory. This study examined articles (in a Japanese newspaper [one company]) contained the keyword “DRR education ([bosai kyouiku] in Japanese)” in the local section. Area names and publication dates were used to identify prefectures and time periods, and plotted on a timeline and in a geographic space. The results showed that the number of articles increased immediately after the disaster, but gradually decreased, as well as articles observed mainly in the affected areas, but few found in the surroundings. This study suggests that (1) the degree of disaster collective memory (the degree of disaster education) increases immediately after the disaster, but quickly decreases, and (2) disaster collective memory (disaster education) is consolidated in the disaster area but does not easily transfer outside. These findings could be in line with our folk beliefs of the difficulty in keeping the memory of the disaster from fading away with time, as well as the challenge of sharing with the outside people. This study shed light on the possibility to analyses DRR education equals to examine disaster collective memory. Further research is needed by using other datasets in order to validate the relation, and to inquiry memory in general.

13:12
Indonesia disaster knowledge updates: Trends, patterns, and leverage points for harvesting knowledge to enhance disaster management

ABSTRACT. Despite the continuous increase of disaster-related publications about Indonesia, the big picture of the knowledge landscape is still unknown to stakeholders. One factor is the absence of a user-friendly tool for this purpose. This leads to our creation of CARI! Disaster-Knowledge Management engine, which automatically collated disaster-related research articles about Indonesia sourced from three major indexing systems. Until 2022, more than 285,000 articles were curated in CARI! engine, with more than 53,000 articles geotagged due to its local relevance. In the absence of periodic review on this knowledge proliferation, Indonesia Disaster Knowledge Update (IDKU) is published monthly since June 2021. The IDKUs visualize metadata of the articles and patterns of thematic disaster knowledge in Indonesia. Through a reflective process, we attempts to answer the following questions: 1) what is the trend and pattern of disaster knowledge in Indonesia across thematic issues? 2) is there any significant and pressing gaps in the production of disaster knowledge in Indonesia? 3) what disaster research topics are crucially needed? 4) how to further enhance disaster-related knowledge management as a meaningful science-policy interface? To date, there are 14 IDKUs released after analyzing 9,272 research articles. Six IDKUs focused on hazard-specific knowledge, five editions focused on thematic issues (e.g. disaster education or early warning system), and the other three provide a temporal update of the overall research articles. On average, each IDKU analyzed 753 articles extracted from CARI! engine based on around 99 relevant keywords. The IDKU edition with the least keywords was the edition on the co-occurrence of natural hazards and COVID-19 (63 keywords), and the highest was on climate-related hazards (173 keywords). Our review of the IDKUs pattern confirms that disaster-related research in Indonesia continuously increasing in terms of numbers, across hazards and disaster management themes. The publications are still dominated by those published in English rather than in Bahasa Indonesia. In terms of publication based on hazard-type, flood-related articles still dominate the landscape (53.98%) and are followed by articles about earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, drought, and other types of hazards. Prevention and mitigation-related research still dominate the record in comparison to other phases. Our review confirms that research activities in Indonesia are still largely concentrated in Java and Sumatra Island. Spatial visualization of research location, quadrant that compares the number of publications and disaster risk index of provinces, and the combined Sankey Diagram validate the absence of correlation and prioritization of research activities in cities with higher disaster-risk levels. Past major disasters correlate with a greater number of research articles in the corresponding provinces. The decision to conduct research activities relies solely on the researchers’ decision as, despite the availability of risk information, there is no policy directing resources to incentivize research in those locations. Interviews with readers of IDKU confirm the absence of systematic utilization of available scientific products to inform disaster policymaking. To this end, there is still a wide gulf in understanding disaster risk systematically using the advancement of scientific and research activities in Indonesia.

13:24
Disaster education for higher education: Curriculum and implementation in Indonesia
PRESENTER: Syahrul Ridha

ABSTRACT. The knowledge of the community is very decisive for taking action on disaster management and disaster preparedness. In preparedness planning, it is necessary to know in advance the types of hazards that will occur in an area, for example, environmental hazards such as flooding; landslides, geological hazards such as tsunamis; earthquakes; and volcanic eruptions. Efforts to increase public knowledge about disasters require a disaster education curriculum that is designed systematically and can be implemented. This study aims to (1) examine the disaster education curriculum in higher education in Indonesia, and (2) evaluate the implementation of disaster education through general courses in higher education. This research uses a literature study. The data is obtained from the analysis of the content of the disaster education curriculum document in higher education. In addition, data is also obtained from student learning outcomes in universities. The results show that the learning outcomes of disaster education in higher education are: (1) understanding the basic principles and paradigms of disaster management in Indonesia, (2) being able to understand the theoretical basis of disaster risk analysis, and (3) being able to analyze a disaster case from various perspectives. Science (multidisciplinary), and (4) understanding the relationship between disaster and the environment. In addition, the courses taught aim to provide students with insight and an introduction to the basic principles of disaster risk reduction and their relationship to environmental conditions in a potentially disaster-prone area. The main focus of the lecture material is an understanding of the important elements of disaster risk reduction that must be taken into account in sustainable development planning in disaster-prone areas (can focus on the most dominant disaster) and experiencing environmental damage, including the issue of climate change. While the implementation of disaster education in higher education can be said to be very effective, it can be seen from the classical completeness in learning which is 95%. Thus, disaster education, including efforts to improve the quality of disaster management, is indispensable. The preparation of the disaster education curriculum in higher education is expected to be carried out on an ongoing basis to prepare the younger generation who are aware and ready to face disasters. Sustainability of disaster education curricula in higher education can contribute to sustainable community resilience through the use of concepts, methods, and tools in disaster management such as risk and capacity assessment, preparedness and contingency planning, and land use planning.

13:36
Smong revisited and compared: Knowledge production and the role of academics on disaster risk reduction in Indonesia

ABSTRACT. The smong oral tradition saved many people of Simeulue Island during the 2004 Aceh tsunami, unlike other oral traditions in other Indonesian regions with similar experience such as Mentawai, Enggano, Palu, and the Sunda Strait. As such, smong attracted the attention of academic institutions, as well as national and international institutions related to disaster management and risk reduction. Reviewing more than 32 academic papers on smong published in proceedings, journals, and reports from 2005-2021, this paper examined how smong attracted the attention of academics and academic institutions, which then influenced disaster regulations at the local (Aceh) and national (Indonesia) level. A comparison with the experience of Palu, Sigi, and Donggala during the 2018 tsunami was made to study the similarities and differences in the production of local knowledge on disaster risk reduction.

We argued that academics and academic research were important in transforming local knowledge into government policies. Historical, anthropological, and political studies on smong revealed the varied factors related to knowledge production in Simeulue, such as: (1) traumatic memories of disaster; (2) inter-generational and intra-generational communication; and (3) the role of geography and culture. Last but not least, academic solidarity in forming social movement for disaster risk reduction was also found as a key factor.

13:00-14:15 Session 1B: Priority 2 - Inclusive and community-based DRR
13:00
The role of the innovation hub in fostering inclusion in the community-led DRR innovation lessons learnt from IDEAKSI in community-led innovation partnership program
PRESENTER: Jessica Novia

ABSTRACT. Through community-led innovation, innovative solutions enable communities, especially women, people with disabilities, the elderly, and other high-risk groups to participate. engage actively and inclusively in disaster management and decision-making processes that impact their lives. This study intends to look at the role of the YAKKUM Emergency Unit’s IDEAKSI as an innovation hub in becoming the enabling environment for fostering inclusion in community led DRR innovation. This study uses qualitative re-search and desk research. The results of the study analyze the challenges of inclusion in disaster management, the role of the innovation hub in supporting inclusiveness, and the reflection of the supporting factors in fostering inclusion in community-led innovation.

13:12
Women participation in disaster risk management practices in Indonesia: A systematic review

ABSTRACT. Along with the increase of disaster occurrences in Indonesia comes the unprecedented innovation for disaster risk reduction by various actors. In particular, women are becoming a fundamental actor across disaster phases reversing the initial understanding that women only play a significant role in response and recovery stages at the household level. Nonetheless, research and studies on women participation in disaster management of various hazards, sectors, and provinces are still limited in Indonesia. Therefore, this study aims to identify the current women's participation in disaster management practices in Indonesia and construct the extent of their involvement in each disaster phase. The study includes peer-reviewed literature and is limited to empirical studies on women participation in disaster in Indonesian context published in international and Indonesian journals. We identified articles from CARI! search engine, which is sourced from Scopus, DoAJ, and Portal Garuda. The literature collection was conducted between 28 April 2022 until 9 May 2022. Manual review was used to assist with preliminary identification and screening, followed by using Mixed Method Appraisal Tools (MMAT) to construct each article. A total of 32 articles about women participation in disaster in Indonesia were found and classified into four (4) disaster phases: prevention and mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. We then reviewed each literature using the participatory lens defined by Arnstein and Agarwal to understand the extent of women participation studied in each article. Informed by the review, we then discussed the context of (Indonesian) women participation in local, national, regional, and international contexts. This article confirms limited women participation, particularly outside of western Indonesia. Its scope of studies also merely covers a broader range, such as mitigation, preparedness, and response phases, including those related to climate and geological hazards. This can be done by exploring more between those scopes, including elevating women participation in the partnership, citizen control and interactive (empowering) level.

13:24
Institutional and operational structure for community based disaster risk management in the Andaman coastline: A case study of Phang-Nga Province, Thailand

ABSTRACT. This study aims to investigate the roles of related laws and government policies in endorsing community participation and collaborative operations with other stakeholders in disaster management through the institutional and operational structure of CBRDM Programs by social organizations. The institutional and operational structure for community-based disaster risk management program at Baan Nam Khem community in Phang-Nga province is the focus of this research, which will be applied to the government CBDRM program case to provide policy recommendations for the development of institutional and operational structure for disaster risk reduction in Thailand's coastal community. The institutional and operational structure for community-based disaster risk management program at Baan Nam Khem community in Phang-Nga province is the focus of this research, which will be applied to the government CBDRM program case to provide policy recommendations for the development of institutional and operational structure for disaster risk reduction in Thailand's coastal community. The research methodology incorporates documentary analysis as well as semi-structured interviews with representatives from social organizations hosting CBRDM programs in the Andaman coastal area who have engaged in CBDRM activities since the 2004 Asian Earth-quake and Tsunami. The theoretical frameworks of adaptive disaster risk governance and an institutional approach are used in this study to better understand the roles of CBDRM programs and their systematic collaboration with stakeholders. The main hypothesis of this study is to determine how well existing national laws and policies have been established to facilitate CBDRM programs in attempt to optimize institutionalization and stimulate the efficiency of disaster-related stakeholders.

13:36
The ‘tsunagari’ to recovery: Social capital and place in facilitating infrastructure reconstruction after the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami
PRESENTER: Emily Ha

ABSTRACT. Tsunagari (繋がり), translates to a bond, link or connection. Following the ten-year anniversary of the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, there has been an emerging discourse challenging the efficacy of post-disaster recovery measures. Recovery in many rural regions within Fukushima, Iwate and Miyagi has not been consistent due to variations in socioeconomic development, rurality, and demographic profiles. The inconsistency in recovery outcomes has demonstrated how the disaster amplified already existing disparities amongst rural communities due to out-migration and ageing populations. Moreover, since most recovery efforts have focused on physical infrastructure, there has been limited consideration of the role that social dimensions play in improving recovery outcomes for vulnerable disaster affected communities. Despite the evidence for social networks and people-place connections supporting affected communities during recovery, these dimensions remain underrepresented in research of resilience and disaster management. Moreover, there continues to be neglect for the agency of community members, particularly elderly community members, in recovery efforts, especially in rural urban planning efforts. People’s relationship to place and built infrastructure is a tenuous link absent in disaster recovery literature. This missing link fails to afford a theory of how reconstruction of the post disaster environment affects sense of place for those who are displaced and return. Our research draws upon mixed methods to evaluate how social capital and sense of place has influenced recovery outcomes in the context of post-disaster rural Japan. Firstly, we use a comparative case study analysis to assess the effect community participation had on recovery outcomes in rural disaster affected regions, particularly for elderly individuals. Secondly, we evaluate how disruptions to sense of place and changes to infrastructure have shaped recovery outcomes focusing on the linkage between social recovery processes and post-disaster planning. We draw on qualitative interviews in two regions to compare social capital outcomes, community participation, and sense of place. Focusing on bonding, bridging, and linking social capital and sense of place, represented through personal connections individuals have with their community and built environment, the presence and absence of community-based initiatives and infrastructure programs is used as a marker for community recovery. Hence, this research aims to provide a model of how social capital and sense of place can be considered and utilised to improve recovery efforts in vulnerable communities. The findings also aim to inform how future policy efforts can include social processes as a core dimension in long term disaster recovery.

13:00-14:15 Session 1C: Priority 3 - Risk and resilience interventions
13:00
Biomimicry approach in the design of coastal protection structures
PRESENTER: Eldina Fatimah

ABSTRACT. The negative impacts of the sea and coastal structures, including loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems have become the focus of research by experts in the last decade. Structural measures such as breakwaters and seawalls are often constructed to provide security, reduce erosion and sedimentation, facilitate ship movement, reclamation, and other socioeconomic benefits. It is known that more than 50 percent of the world's population (including Indonesia) is concentrated along coastlines. This causes the natural ecosystem to be very depressed. In addition, the combined threat of sea level rise and extreme weather events resulting in coastlines around the world requires environmentally sensitive development, strengthening, and intensive maintenance. Generally, coastal reinforcement and protection utilize materials in the form of natural stone and concrete that can withstand, deflect and reduce the wave energy that occurs. However, these two materials can disrupt the balance of marine life. One strategy to conserve and regenerate ecological products is to use natural elements and processes, or imitate the characteristics of natural features (nature-based biomimicry). This research was conducted to provide an alternative solution to coastal protection using concrete material. This solution can enable the growth of marine life on concrete infrastructure and is also capable of creating regenerative solutions. The design is planned not only to reduce wave energy but also locally adapted to encourage the growth of marine life and strengthen the concrete structure of coastal protection buildings through a process known as bioprotection. The study began by observing the physical condition of Ujong Seukee beach, Masjid Raya District, Aceh Besar District. Revetment of natural stone has been built along the coast which is known for its coral reefs. Observations show that the presence of coral reefs is decreasing, the slope of the coast is getting steeper and the coastline is declining from time to time. Field observations and hydrooceanographic measurements will be carried out in the form of observing marine biota, measuring tides, taking coastal sediment material, observing changes in shoreline, and calculating extreme wave heights using wind speed data to obtain information on the physical characteristics of the coastal environment. The determination of the appropriate building design is carried out based on the consideration of the concept of biomimicry. Furthermore, numerical simulations are carried out using Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) tools for modeling the construction of coastal protection structures and their placement by reviewing aspects of current velocity, wave height and shoreline slope according to the physical characteristics and biota at the location. The results of this study are expected to be used as a reference or guide in the planning of coastal protection structures based on environmental balance.

13:12
Determinants of participation in a disaster insurance programme in Indonesia: A probit regression with SMOTE approach

ABSTRACT. Indonesia is an archipelagic country located at the juncture of four major tectonic plates, including the Asian, Australian, Indian Ocean, and Pacific Ocean plates. It is also located on the Pacific Ring of Fire and has a tropical climate with high rainfall intensity. This condition causes Indonesia to become a disaster-prone area to volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, and landslides. The high potential for disaster is always associated with the fund problem for disaster management. The limited budget sourced from the State Budget (APBN) and Regional Budget Revenues and Expenditures (APBD) requires the establishment of a disaster insurance scheme as alternative financing. Up to now, there is no legal mechanism as the basis for implementing disaster insurance in Indonesia. This condition is due to limited supporting data. The state and the community's have to be involved together to make disaster insurance work. The community as an object can participate in supporting disaster insurance like paying insurance premiums by taking into account the households’ socioeconomic conditions. This study is conducted to prepare a disaster insurance scheme based on the 2019 National Socioeconomic Surveys (SUSENAS). The main objective of this study is to examine the determinant of the participation status of households in Indonesia in the insurance program. The response variable is the household's participation in the insurance program (yes/no). The predictor variables are household expenditure, number of household members, classification of residence, and the characteristics of the household head, which represent general household conditions such as age, gender, marital status, education level, and work. The method used is probit regression with the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) approach. Probit regression is used because the dependent variable is categorical data (success and failure), while the SMOTE approach is used because there are imbalanced data in the response variable. Imbalanced data will impact the prediction results, which tend to be in the majority category, and poor prediction accuracy results in the minority category. SMOTE uses oversampling technique and is considered strong in overcoming imbalanced data and has been successful in various cases. The result shows that all predictor variables except the marital status of the household head significantly affect household participation in the insurance program. Households with higher household expenditures, living in urban areas, number of household members more than three people, and household heads who are 45 years old and over, male, have higher education, and work in the formal sector have a higher chance of joining the insurance program. Based on these findings, the government can focus the disaster insurance program on households with these characteristics and provide greater subsidies, especially to households with lower incomes, living in rural areas, having more than three household members, and households with a household head who have lower education, female, and work in the informal sector. This study gives important inputs for implementing the disaster insurance program scheme in Indonesia can be made based on the characteristics of households so that premium payment can be implemented well and the given subsidy is more targeted.

13:24
New York City 2100: The climate resilience master plan for Lower Manhattan
PRESENTER: Travis Bunt

ABSTRACT. Lower Manhattan is the birthplace of New York City, and over the centuries the neighborhood has continued to evolve as part of a transforming and growing city. Today, it remains an iconic global symbol of our city and an exemplar of dynamism and resilience. By the 2040s, however, tidal flooding and more frequent and severe coastal storms will threaten the long-term viability of the Financial District and Seaport neighborhoods. Over the last two years, an interdisciplinary team of planners, engineers, architects, and landscape architects worked in close collaboration with NYC EDC to develop a strategy for adapting the one-mile stretch of shoreline from the Brooklyn Bridge to The Battery. Released in December 2021, the Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience Master Plan is a shared City-community vision for a resilient 21st-century waterfront. It illustrates an approach that embraces this once-in-a-generation opportunity to create a vision for transforming the waterfront to better serve all New Yorkers for generations to come. Grounded in community and regulatory input, climate science, engineering, and feasibility analysis, the master plan reflects an ambitious vision that can be realized. The primary design challenge is to achieve these resilience goals while ensuring functionality of, and access to, the waterfront. Lower Manhattan’s waterfront is a unique confluence of urban life and infrastructure where our vast network of subways, ferries, and highways converge and connect. This waterfront houses maritime facilities that serve the entire region, mooring space for chartered vessels and historic ships, and the Downtown Manhattan Heliport. It is a constellation of public open spaces, amenities, and historic landmarks that links together a dense and diverse urban space. Below grade lies a network of critical, dense underground infrastructure including five subway lines, critical power transmission lines, and the sewer interceptor. Above, the superstructure of the elevated FDR viaduct complicates the siting of any shoreline improvement. This dense urban fabric leaves limited space to site flood defense without walling off the community. To achieve the project’s objectives requires a bold approach: extending the shoreline of Lower Manhattan into the East River to create space for flood defense infrastructure and waterfront uses. The proposed design envisions a new multi-level public waterfront. The upper level will protect against coastal storms, with buried floodwalls that create elevated open spaces with expansive views of the harbor and the city. A lower-level esplanade will be close to the water itself and connect to piers and ferries. Ferry terminals will be redeveloped into new resilient and modern facilities with room for future expansion. This waterfront will also be designed to help advance the City’s sustainability goals. The master plan identifies opportunities to integrate renewable energy as part of any new buildings or structures along the water. Nature-based solutions will be woven throughout to help manage stormwater, provide shade, and reduce local summer temperatures. Finally, this new shoreline edge will incorporate opportunities for ecological enhancements, providing new habitats for fish and other aquatic organisms.

13:36
Social and technical sustainability of a tsunami early warning system (tews) - a case study of Patong, Thailand

ABSTRACT. Due to tsunami being a rapid event (minutes or hours) it is necessary to take measures well in advance. TEWS is a warning system for reducing the consequences of a tsunami. It detect a tsunami, disseminate warning and communicate to people at risk to evacuate. The TEWS chain of activities are all important to minimize a tsunami‘s consequences. Warnings alone are not enough to avoid a disaster, it is essential to also focus on disaster awareness and capacity building at community level to make sure that people within tsunami prone areas are aware of proper evacuation procedures. TEWS can be designed with a people-centred approach. People-centred TEWS are to be considered as permanently active and is therefore proactive instead of reactive, e.g. it does not have to be a hazard before measurements are taken. The first mile approach highlights the need to ensure that i) people are aware of the risk, ii) people are prepared for evacuating and iii) the TEWS is properly working. Consideration needs to be taken to both technical and social sustainability for maintaining the warning system’s functions. The aim is to study the sustainability of a TEWS by conducting a retrospective long-term analysis. This will be done by creating a framework with key quality indicators for technical and social sustainability. The three key quality indicators for technical sustainability are detect, communicate and disseminate. The two key quality indicators for social sustainability are preparedness and evacuation. The framework is created based on literature that emphasize the chain of activities from detection and to evacuation. The framework was extended with the subcriteria indicators - Memory keeping of historic disaster and Signage system of the evacuation routes. Patong, Thailand, is used as a case study. Data is collected from research and news articles 2005-2022, as well as field observations of Patong 2022. The result show that during these years there have been several aspects related to technical and social sustainability, both positive and negative.

13:00-14:15 Session 1D: Priority 4 - Models and systems to support response
13:00
Using agent-based modelling to analyse typhoon displacement in the Philippines
PRESENTER: Emily Nabong

ABSTRACT. In the coming decades, we can expect the impacts of climate change to result in more intense and frequent hazards. Consequently, the need to reduce the vulnerability of communities is becoming more pressing. In the Philippines, high intensity typhoons capitalise on rapid urbanisation, lack of prepared-ness, among other factors, to produce devasting disasters. In this study, we focus on understanding displacement pathways of hazard-displaced persons to increase disaster preparedness in the Philippines. Hazards, such as ty-phoons, are often a movement triggering event, prompting affected individu-als and households to seek safe shelter. Using agent-based modelling, we simulated the effects of such hazards on affected populations to model where displacement flows may occur in the Philippines. Based on regional demographic and economic data from the Philippine census, we show how socioeconomic factors influence population movement post-disaster. The re-sults from our model show (1) a 23% increase in overall human movement from 2000 to 2050, (2) identification of Region XII and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao as top destination locations, (3) a immigration-driven population growth up to 10 million people in these regions, and (4) an increased rate of inequitable asset distribution. Our model may be useful for planners and engineers in the pre-hazard preparedness phase of disaster risk reduction by identifying areas in need of resource allocation during and after typhoons.

13:12
Crafting effective tsunami evacuation measures using multi-agent simulation: A case study of Khao Lak, Thailand

ABSTRACT. In Thailand, the effectiveness of tsunami evacuation measures has been evaluated and improved by drills. Crafting is the activity of skillfully creating something. Effective tsunami evacuation measures can be crafted with the advancement of computer modeling and simulation. Various tsunami evacuation simulations have been developed and adopted in at-risk communities worldwide as alternative solutions to evaluate and improve tsunami evacuation measures. However, the interaction of evacuees with the environment (e.g., signage) and gathering behavior have not been investigated in the tsunami evacuation modeling. This paper introduces a multi-agent simulation of tsunami evacuation for crafting effective tsunami evacuation measures. The simulation was created using the Unity3D game engine, which has a scripting application programming interface (API) for the navigation system and physics simulation that is crucial for evacuation modeling. To develop evacuation logic models and inputs, questionnaires and field surveys were conducted. A case study of the model is demonstrated in Ban Bang Niang in the Khao Lak area because it has flat terrain and economic (tourism) growth, which can contribute to higher tsunami risk, whereas it has measures to reduce the risk of tsunamis in all dimensions. Twelve scenarios were designed to evaluate the effects of different tsunami evacuation preference ratios. The results of sensitivity analysis show that evacuation rates were responsive to gathering behavior ratios, vertical evacuation ratios, and signage follower ratios, respectively. Finally, effective tsunami evacuation measures can be crafted with the combination of officially announcing the existing tall buildings as designated evacuation shelters, pinpointing them on the maps, and minimizing gathering behavior.

13:24
Analyzing tsunami route choice factors using binomial logistic regression
PRESENTER: Juliana Fisaini

ABSTRACT. The 2004 Indian Tsunami has affected most coastal area of Aceh Province, Indonesia, including Baitussalam sub-district in Aceh Besar. The district categorized as one of the most vulnerable area to the tsunami because of the geographical location. Located in the coastal area, far from the highlands, and no vertical evacuation buildings available in the area. In the last four years, new residences have been developed in the area. It indicates that newcomers with lack of information and knowledge related to tsunami evacuation are inhabiting this neighborhood. This paper aims to identify the factors influence people's behavior in choosing tsunami evacuation routes. We employed a discrete choice model with binary logit regression to analyze the correlation of socio-economic factors and tsunami evacuation characteristics toward the decision in choosing evacuation routes. The result describes that the probability of choosing tsunami evacuation routes influenced by family type, level of education, household income, evacuation departure time and travel time of evacuation.

13:36
Digital twin computing for enhancing resilience of disaster response system

ABSTRACT. Digital twin is now recognized as digital copies of physical world's objects stored in digital space and utilized to simulate the sequences and consequences of target phenomena. By incorporating physical world’s data into the digital twin, developers and users have a full view of the target through real-time feedback. Recent advances in high-performance computing and large-scale data fusion of sensing and observations of both natural and social phenomena are enhancing the applicability of the digital twin paradigm to disaster research. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are also being applied more and more widely across the world and contributing as essential elements of digital twin. Those have significant implications for disaster response and recovery to hold out the promise of dramatically improving our understanding of disaster-affected areas and responses in real-time. A project is underway to enhance the resilience of disaster response and medical systems by constructing "Disaster Digital Twin" to support disaster medical assistance team in the anticipated tsunami disaster. “Disaster Digital Twin” platform consists of a fusion of real-time simulation for tsunami damage forecast, social sensing to identify exposed population and medical needs, and multi-agent simulation of disaster medical response activities to find the optimal allocation of disaster medical services and achieve the enhancement of disaster resilience. To achieve the goal of innovating digital twin computing for enhancing disaster resilience, four issues are addressed. (1) Developing nationwide real-time tsunami inundation and damage forecast system. The priority target for forecasting is the Pacific coast of Japan, a region where Nankai trough earthquake is likely to occur. (2) Establishing a real-time estimation of the number of affected people and buildings in the affected areas and clarifying the relationship between the exposed population and medical demand. (3) Developing a reinforcement learning-based multi-agent simulation of medical activities in the affected areas with use of damage information, search and rescue activities, medical demands, and resources in the medical facilities to fid optimal allocation of medical response. (4) Developing a digital twin computing platform to support disaster medical response activities and find optimal allocation of disaster medical services through what-if analysis of multi-agent simulation.

13:00-14:15 Session 1E: Priority 4 - Heritage conservation and disasters
13:00
Type and distribution of tsunami heritage objects in Aceh (case study in Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar)

ABSTRACT. The 2004 Hindian Ocean Tsunami in Aceh Province had a major impact on the social life of the community and the physical condition of the cities. This disaster also left various relics as evidence of the great disaster that is very important not only as a memory but for social life, science, and cultural development. This shows that tsunami relics or tsunami heritage needs to be protected and preserved because it has important value in the future as cultural heritage. Although any relic can only be recognized as a cultural heritage object if it is more than 50 years old, within that period if the disaster object does not receive attention and study, it is possible that it will be lost and cannot be identified. This study aims to identify the types and distribution of tsunami heritage and then classified them into several categories of cultural heritage. The relics that were identified in this study are specified as tangible heritage located in two cities which are Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar. The technique for collecting data combines literature review, interview, and then verified with sites survey and observation. The tsunami relics will be verified and observed in their coordinate location, major function, condition, and value. The method used is qualitative, by combining the techniques of spatial analysis and descriptive analysis. The output of this research is a long list, of the conditions, classification, and geospatial distribution map of the tsunami heritage. In a conclusion, this study is a work of the compilation of a database in the form of an inventory of tsunami heritage that can be used by the government, researchers, and NGOs for further planning.

13:12
Disaster preparedness in reconstruction of infrastructures and preservation of disaster heritages in and around Banda Aceh City

ABSTRACT. After 2004 off Sumatra Great Earthquake and Tsunami, Aceh became the most affected disaster area. Especially, Banda Aceh city counted the biggest casualty and received serious damage of infrastructures. This research focuses on achievement of disaster preparedness in reconstruction of infrastructures and also on preservation of disaster heritages in and around Banda Aceh city. This research firstly analyzes recent AIWEST-DR presentations and found out that Aceh has been kept as the most frequently analyzed research objective in recent AIWEST-DR presentations. However, it seems that preservation and utilization of disaster heritages would not be analyzed and discussed enough yet. Based on such basic understanding, this research secondly utilizes observation findings in the field. As the result of observation in the field, in addition to realization of a certain disaster preparedness in reconstruction of infrastructures, preservation of notable disaster heritages was found. Also, more effective and integrated promotion and utilization of disaster heritages in and around Banda Aceh city was found as a future challenge.

13:24
Urban regeneration in flood-prone areas: a case study of the rehabilitation of wooden public bathhouses in Hitoyoshi City, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan
PRESENTER: Miku Okuba

ABSTRACT. Hitoyoshi City, Kumamoto Prefecture, is a flood-prone area that suffered large-scale flood damage in the torrential rain disaster of July 2020. The wooden public bathhouses there, which are not registered as cultural assets, have overcome previous flood damage by using local and traditional rehabil-itation methods. Through a literature review and interviews with residents, this study identifies and compares the rehabilitation methods of two historic bathhouses, one in the central city and a newer one in the suburbs, and in-vestigates the impact and effectiveness of these methods on the recovery and reconstruction within the affected area. In addition, it shows what must not be overlooked in the ongoing reconstruction and town planning of Hitoyoshi City. This study is unique in that it focuses on buildings that are not regis-tered as cultural properties, and comprehensively deals with the role that the building rehabilitation process has played in building the local community and the history of recovery that has overcome disasters. In the recovery and reconstruction of Hitoyoshi City, which is regularly hit by flooding, it be-came clear that the regeneration of a communal wooden building, such as a public bathhouse, provided an opportunity to establish and strengthen the ties within a close community and to the outside world. Such a rehabilitation process involving communities within and outside the area is expected to lead to the strengthening of local resilience.

13:36
A review of the resilience of historical mosques in Indonesia in mitigating natural disaster toward the environmental-friendly mosque design
PRESENTER: Laina Sari

ABSTRACT. With the second-largest Islamic population globally, Indonesia grows with many mosques spreading in every subdistrict, even to small villages. Some facts show that ancient mosques built a hundred years ago successfully survived the disaster. Some facts also show that Muslims rescue themselves during disasters such as flooding and earthquakes in the mosque. They surrendered themselves to God as a way to get safe from any dangers. Therefore, the study reviews several historical mosques in Indonesia that have successfully survived the disaster. In this study, the disaster reviewed in the mosque context is not only earthquake or flooding but also climate change. Climate change is quite complex that can contribute to severe attacks such as pandemics due to poor interiority and building design. Other things such as severe tropical storms and the rise of sea level would also cause flooding. Based on the literature review in these areas, it is established that mosque plays a significant role in giving a certain sense of the Muslims, especially during the disaster. This study aims to identify the mosque's ability to be safe against disaster performed to the construction and architectural elements. The works of literature are collected from google scholar, including journals and proceedings conducted within five years from January 2017 to November 2021 that were eligible for inclusion. The keywords utilized to search the literature are historical mosque, Indonesia, resilience, disaster, and environment. The output of this study is the contribution to disaster risk reduction through environmentally friendly mosque design. This paper will also benefit researchers who endeavor to undertake research in this area and could act as a good starting point for them.

14:15-14:45 Break

Coffee and tea will be available.

Location: ABS Lobby
14:45-16:00 Session 2A: Priority 1 - Disaster risk mapping and assessment
14:45
Resonance from the 1674 Ambon tsunami: Extreme run-up caused by an earthquake-triggered landslide

ABSTRACT. The 1674 Ambon tsunami results in severe damage and inundation on the north coast of Ambon Island. The damage reported that the largest run-up height was approximately 100 m and fatalities were over 2300. The gap of this impact of the tsunami along the coast is unsolved in the most intriguing aspects of the event. We applied a two-layer nonlinear wave model to reproduce the tsunami from a landslide source for understanding the wave dynamics around Ambon Island. After validation of the tsunami height measurements, a Fast Fourier Transform of the synthetic water level shows coupled resonance oscillations period over the insular slope and shelf. The spectral energy according to the shelf, provided and identified the coastal communities prone to tsunami hazards.

14:57
Developing flood vulnerability curves for Leyte, Philippines
PRESENTER: Isaac Besarra

ABSTRACT. The Philippines faces growing flood risk, and there is a need for more robust analytical tools to understand flood impacts on communities. This research seeks to outline a methodology to develop flood vulnerability curves for the Eastern Visayas Region of the Philippines, drawing upon recent flooding events such as Tropical Storm Agaton, which impacted municipalities across the island of Leyte. The curve approach uses two main determinants to understand the physical vulnerability of building attributes, noted as the degree of loss and the magnitude of impact. Past studies have drawn on different approaches in assessing these determinants, such as synthesising existing literature and conducting actuarial methods to classify the damage impacts on communities. However, such processes generally over or underestimate the effects of damages as they fail to account for mitigation strategies that communities produce during such events. By conducting on-the-ground fieldwork, this process acts as a middle ground to capture the theoretical contexts as well as the perspective of surrounding households. We outline the proposed collection of household data to understand the impact of previous flood events and economic loss of building assets. This data is then classified into different building typologies using structure attributes such as housing height, building material, housing quality and the number of floors to define key drivers of building vulnerability. By determining sample sizes based on building material variance and distinguishing curves through varying structural typologies, these curves will be replicated across the island of Leyte to understand the geographical and spatial trends across the region. The expected contribution of this research will advance knowledge of current and future flood risks. This study is expected to produce the first flood vulnerability curves outside of the Greater Metro Manila Area of the Philippines, significantly expanding modelling capabilities of flood risk. The findings will also contribute to policy development at the local level, focusing on the inclusion of disaster risk assessments in planning.

15:09
Burni Telong’s volcano risk assessment and mitigation
PRESENTER: Irin Caisarina

ABSTRACT. Burni Telong Volcano is only 5 kilometers from Simpang Tiga Redelong, Bener Meriah Capital City and Rembele Airport. The BMKG noted that the Burni Telong Volcano had erupted on December 7, 1924, causing great dam-age to the environment, including agricultural land and villages. Until now, the Burni Telong volcano has not experienced an increase in volcanic activi-ty, so monitoring is carried out continuously for 24 hours. This can be con-sidered in the development of the Burni Telong Volcano area considering to the volcanic status (on controlling 24 hour). This research was conducted by Arc Gis 10.4.1 to find out the risk disaster assessment of Burni Telong vol-canic and Logical Framework Analysis (LFA) to create mitigation for volca-no disaster. The results show Timang Gajah sub-dstrict has a high hazard level, high loss rate and medium capacity level so that the disaster risk in Timang Gajah District is high. Wih Pesam sub-istrict has a high threat level, high loss rate and low capacity level so that the disaster risk is high Wih Pesam and Bukit sub-district has a moderate hazard level, high loss rate and high capacity level so that the Bukit sub-district disaster risk is moderate. There are 2 (two) mitigations can be implied, first land use directions based on disaster mitigation and directions based on disaster risk assessment.

15:21
Overview of spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal residential areas affected by tsunami, co-seismic land subsidence, and river flood at Aceh Singkil Regency of Indonesia
PRESENTER: Ella Meilianda

ABSTRACT. Approaching two decades since the Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami disaster events in December 2004, the state of recovery of the affected coastal areas may vary, depending on the level of damage, vulnerability, and the capacity of the authority and community to rebuild their assets and properties at the coastal areas. Singkil is one among many disaster-affected coastal rural cities on the mainland of the southern coast of Aceh Province. The disaster has caused immense loss of lives, assets and properties, including 1900 units of houses, 29 schools, 5,430 meters of road, 3,735 meters of drainage line, three traditional central marketplace, and 77 religious buildings were destroyed or damaged. It was severely hit by the earthquake and tsunami and experienced significant co-seismic land subsidence. The latter has caused half of the city to be regularly inundated by seawater since the event. On the other hand, Singkil is the recipient of frequent flood events from one of the largest watershed areas in Sumatra Island, i.e., Singkil Watershed, which area covers 10,000 sq kilometers crossing over Aceh Province and North Sumatra Province. This makes Singkil also vulnerable to frequent flood events from the rivers. The study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of the residential areas in Singkil affected by the tsunami and land subsidence, in combination with any particular flood events from the watershed inundating the residential areas during the last 18 years. The change detection is mainly focusing on the changes in residential locations using the remote sensing method by subtracting the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) with the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) to obtain the identified build-up areas (BU). The river flood inundation area coverage is specified using the DEM analysis combined with official reports of flood inundation coverage from the local Disaster Management Agency (BPBD). An on-site interview with the coastal residence is conducted to validate the flood inundation coverage and depth. It is noteworthy that the overall 50% of Singkil residential areas are prone to seawater inundation (e.g., during ride rise) compared to the pre-tsunami condition. Currently, 30% of the residential areas are prone to river flood inundation, and the remaining 20% are considered safe areas. New residential areas were established post-disaster is subject to river flood inundation, as the area of inundation due to subsidence intersects with the area of river flood inundation. This suggests a careful revision of masterplan for the future Singkil is highly recommended.

15:33
The mapping of tsunami inundation area around the Palu Bay using spatial analysis
PRESENTER: Nazriatun Nisa

ABSTRACT. In the end of 2018, a major earthquake with a magnitude 7,5 Mw devastated Central Sulawesi. This earthquake resulted in a subaerial landslide that triggered a tsunami around the Palu Bay, which is one of the causes of this unusual tsunami. 5 years after the devastated earthquake and tsunami, the community started to re-occupy the beachfront area. The people started to rebuild their houses and other public spaces around the Palu bay. This event will result in a bigger impact if the tsunami disaster occurs later on. This study aims to build a tsunami inundation map using spatial analysis around the Palu bay. The tsunami inundation map will be built using ArcGIS. There are several parameters used in this study, such as land cover analysis, slope, tsunami run-up, and coastline boundary. The result of this study shows the area within the tsunami inundation area. The area is divided into three zones: the red zone, yellow zone, and the secure area from tsunami (green zone). Later, the tsunami inundation map can be used in designing spatial and regional planning, building tsunami evacuation routes, and others.

14:45-16:00 Session 2B: Priority 2 - Assessing and managing hazards
14:45
The implementation of weather modification technology for forest fire mitigation in Indonesia: The evaluation and challenges

ABSTRACT. As one of the countries with the largest peatland area, Indonesia faces a severe threat from ecological damage and reduced peatland area due to forest fires. In the broad framework of forest fire disaster management, the Weather Modification Technology (WMT) continues to be one of the solutions in forest fire suppression through physical engineering processes in the clouds to become rain and rewetting peatlands. Forest fires in Indonesia often happen in areas with extensive peatland covers, such as the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan. From the evaluation analyzed in this paper, the WMT activities in 2020 managed to increase rainfall varying from 12-30% in areas experiencing forest fires. The rain produced from The WMT activities also managed to suppress the escalation of hotspots in forest fire-prone regions so that more massive forest fires do not occur. The evaluation of WMT activities is also carried out by analyzing the fluctuations in groundwater levels. The groundwater level showed an increasing trend during the application of WMT for forest fire suppression. That indicates that the rain from WMT could also be utilized to maintain peatlands' wetness. Hence, the potential for further combustion below the peat's surface, also known as peat smoldering, can be limited. The implementation of WMT for forest fire mitigation needs to be continuously improved by the Indonesian government. Through good planning, WMT can be carried out at the right time to be an anticipatory step in mitigating forest fire disasters in Indonesia.

14:57
Monitoring land use and land cover changes in Aceh Province, Indonesia for sustainable spatial planning
PRESENTER: Ashfa Achmad

ABSTRACT. Understanding the socio-economic and ecological impacts of changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in an area is very important. It is done to develop appropriate spatial planning and physical development strategies to improve the quality of the environment and public health. This study aims to analyze the temporal changes of LULC in Aceh Province (2017-2021). Quantification data for each LULC category is obtained from ESRI, based on Sentinel Satellite Imagery. Then reclassification was carried out until the area of each land use category was obtained according to the analysis needs for 2017-2021, after previously doing a clip for the delineation of the Aceh Province region. The area of each LULC category is obtained after converting the data from raster to vector. GIS technology and remote sensing are required in this LULC analysis. The analysis results show that two categories decrease in quantity, namely forest and brush/grassland, with a decrease of 0.01%/year and 4.96%/year, respectively. The built-up area category experienced a significant increase, namely 2.74%/year, in line with the increase in population and urbanization. Cropland also experienced an increase of 7.97% in four years, which is a change from brush/grassland and forest. The socio-economic and environmental impacts of the changes and the implications for sustainable spatial planning are discussed.

15:09
Environmental consideration in humanitarian action: Uptake, challenges and opportunities for community resilience

ABSTRACT. Since the 1990s, the discourses and practices on environment-humanitarian nexus have proliferated. They gained ground when humanitarian actors realised that delivering aid without protecting the environment would harm the environment on which the affected communities depended on, furthering their vulnerability to future shocks and stresses and thereby, creating aid dependency. This paper looks into humanitarian standards that advocate environmental sustainability in humanitarian action including the Core Humanitarian Standard, the RC/RC Code of Conduct and applicable national disaster management policies; presents past practices on how humanitarian organisations incorporated environmental considerations in their response and recovery efforts in the aftermath of the Aceh tsunami and around refugee camps; and investigates ways in which the sector could gradually implement its own sustainability commitment. Evidence shows that disaster management actors have worked on community adaptive capacity and climate resilience building but little consideration was given to efforts in ‘greening’ humanitarian action. Using literature review of reports and research and some verification with those involved in one of the initiatives, the paper is aimed at discussing environment-humanitarian nexus including the recently launched Climate and Environmental Charter; elaborating the trajectory made by humanitarian actors; and underscoring the urgency in taking concrete steps to reducing carbon footprint. This has been more pressing since humanitarian actors are dealing with frequent and more intense climate disasters that require them to change the way they conduct their operations, thinking simultaneously about development objectives. It found that firstly, environmental concerns could be integrated into the response and recovery efforts that in turn generated positive social, economic and environmental impacts. This would strengthen community resilience against future shocks and stresses; secondly, the evidence-based partnerships were effective in minimising the environmental impacts of humanitarian aid while reducing vulnerability of the affected community and host community; and thirdly, interventions in this matter were still seen as case-based and needed more system-wide approach. At this juncture, humanitarian actors must consider an intersectional approach as the disaster-affected communities are not homogenous entities. Such collaborations could be expanded to engage more diverse participation of most-at-risk groups such as children, persons with disability, indigenous community and women to participate in the environmental stewardship reviews and involve them in policy processes that promote locally-led preparedness. Such efforts must be carried out according to their needs, age, disability, and gender; and lastly, sector-wide carbon emissions are still hard to get estimated as no standardised measurement is in place. Amidst the pressure to limit the global heating to well below 2 degrees celsius, all entities seem demanded a set of climate actions. The research hopes to contribute some recommendations in the humanitarian space in this regard such as engaging in system-wide approach at different levels to increase technical resources and finances through clusters system as well as in the operation and programming; working more intensely with environmental leaders and community-based organisations in the disaster-affected areas to develop appropriate locally-led preparedness; and partnering with youth-led organisations, women-led associations and the like to understand their unique perspectives towards environment in humanitarian action.

15:21
Spatial factors impacting wildfire management in case of local community living in forest area in Chiang Mai, Thailand

ABSTRACT. This paper aims to unravel the space issues in the wildfire situation in Chiang Mai, Thailand to emphasize the importance of community-based wildfire management. The literature review method was used to study the wildfire situation, and state official policies, and use the production of space concept as a tool to explain and interpret the relation of space and community in wildfire management. It was found that, in case of Chiang Mai, the wildfires management has continued to develop positively. But even if the power is decentralized to the local community, there's still a sense of top-down management. All of which are reflected in 3 space issues. Firstly, Physical Space that affects wildfire management, both the physical space and the nature of the forest, including unclear boundaries. Secondly, Political Space that demonstrates power and resource control. Lastly, Social Space that demonstrates the relationship between communities and forest areas through interpreting experiences, history, knowledge of space management which every community is different. The different space issues this writing encounter resulting in decentralization and community-based wildfire management, both power and policy should be emphasized.

15:33
The role of land subsidence induced by palm oil plantation land clearing to escalating flood disaster events at Trumon Area, South Aceh Regency of Indonesia
PRESENTER: Dedy Alfian

ABSTRACT. Trumon watershed, located in the Trumon District of South Aceh Regency, is one of the many watersheds under critical conditions in Indonesia's Aceh Province. Historical flood events associated with the watershed have escalated over the last 25 years at the Trumon watershed. This is in line with the increasing oil palm plantation openings within this 53,262 Ha peatland dominant watershed area. From previous studies, massive and continuous land use changes over the peatland areas may lead to land subsidence. Being mostly situated at the downstream of a watershed, the reclaimed peatland may serve as a recipient of flood events during the rainy season. This study examines the relationship between the frequency and intensity of flood events, and the land subsidence due to oil palm land clearing within and surrounding the Trumon watershed. The method used in this study is a geospatial analysis using multi-temporal satellite imagery of 1995 – 2021 to identify areal changes in land use rendering the oil palm land clearing practices over the watershed. From the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), we investigate the changing elevation of the changed area to analyze the effect of land subsidence associated with the land clearing practices. In addition, the annual historical flood event records are used to analyze the flood frequency and intensity. The satellite imagery interpretation reveals a remarkable land use change of previously 2130 Ha peatland forest observed in 1996, to become a 10,000 Ha palm oil plantation in 2021. From DEMs analysis, those changes are associated with a subsiding land elevation of 1 – 1.35 m at the watershed area. Despite being less than 20% of the watershed area, the land subsidence effect caused by the land reclamation for the oil palm plantation has contributed to a striking change in the watershed boundary, i.e., from only 53,262 Ha to 786,675 Ha. Being located at the downstream of the watershed, the subsided palm oil plantation and its surrounding area have now turned into an accommodating space for the flood discharged from the much larger neighboring upstream Singkil watershed, one of the largest watersheds in the Aceh Province. Changes in the watershed area also led to an increase in flood inundation from 3728.5 Ha to 37,741.86 Ha, with an increase of flood depth from only 0.5 – 1.0 m, to up to 4.0 m. This current situation has made the Trumon area the recipient of more frequent floods, i.e., from a five-year return period to become an annual event.

14:45-16:00 Session 2C: Priority 3 - Frameworks and actions to build resilience
14:45
Understanding Acehnese framing the disaster : Socio-cultural perspective
PRESENTER: Sofia Sofia

ABSTRACT. People's behavior in dealing with natural hazards and disasters is influenced by many factors including the environment, history, economy, politics, and socio-cultural conditions. Socio-cultural conditions are very important and affect disaster preparedness, modify, and refuse external assistance. The people of Aceh have a unique local wisdom in dealing with disasters. This study aims to analyze the Acehnese people's understanding of disasters from a socio-cultural aspect. A qualitative survey was conducted to examine the perception of the Acehnese through local wisdom in dealing with disasters. Convenience sampling used to meet the criteria of respondent for this study. Using thematic analysis, the expected results of this study will explain the understanding of disasters and the sources of strength and resilience of the Acehnese people in dealing with disasters.

14:57
The next wave of risk reduction: Fostering urban flood resilience in rapidly urbanizing mid-tier cities
PRESENTER: Travis Bunt

ABSTRACT. Throughout the developing world, rapid urbanization and climate change, combined with natural geography and hydrology, have increased the vulnerability of population centers to natural hazards including floods, earthquakes, landslides, and stronger storms and storm surges. Though much emphasis and capital is generally put upon the biggest metro areas, flood risk in quickly-growing second and third tier cities is also increasing, and there is opportunity to reduce the risk concurrent with urban growth, before flood issues are further exacerbated. These accelerating conditions necessitate change and provide opportunities for innovation in processes and practice. Key to meeting these needs is to integrate an interdisciplinary team and workflow from project inception, a strategy which we have deployed across four regional hubs in Indonesia: Semarang, Manado, Pontianak, and Bima. By de-siloing project disciplines and implementing a multipronged approach to resilient design, teams of engineers, architects, urban designers, economists, government experts, and NGOs, can work collaboratively to develop holistic approaches to multifaceted challenges.

In each selected Indonesian city, the goal of the respective urban resiliency projects were to provide technical support to strengthen the capacity of the government (at the national, provincial, and municipal levels) to reduce flood risk, and to develop an evidence base to highlight the need for increased investments in urban flood resilience. Under various funding umbrellas created by IFIs and development aid organizations, we have piloted a working methodology for rapid diagnostics, analysis, and investment in such targeted cities, which can be replicated to other key cities in the country (and ultimately the Southeast Asia region at large). Our team of experts worked closely with client agencies, national and local government agencies, and local stakeholders and residents to develop, pilot and employ risk reduction analytics and investment packages, technical capacity building tools and knowledge sharing platforms.

Each study area and city presented unique populations, geographies, hydrologies, challenges, and opportunities. Through robust engagement, research, analysis, and modelling, our team developed streamlined processes to identify these individualized aspects and to develop localized hazard profiles. Via an iterative process involving all levels of stakeholders, our approach was adapted to each individual city’s issues, needs, and potential for resilient growth, resulting in custom-fit diagnoses, solutions and investment packages. By employing multi-sector knowledge-bases and multi-disciplinary approaches, we could ensure the subsequent investments are designed to not only increase flood resilience but to better local lives and livelihoods, increase and foster biodiversity, grow economic activity and tourism, and generally create a more sustainable city for the future. Dependent on locality, our proposals aimed to reduce risks borne by combinations of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding as well as specific issues of subsidence, erosion, and sedimentation, and ecological degradation. Proposals ranged from finely-tailored solutions, such as changes in agricultural practices and tidal gate installation at canal mouths, to wider ranging solutions like suggested policy changes and economic cooperatives, and combined a series of structural and non-structural measures at each scale.

15:09
Sequential decision analytics and its application to flood risk reduction and evacuation advisory optimization
PRESENTER: Erick Mas

ABSTRACT. Flood disasters have caused multiple victims across countries. In various cases, casualties are due to late evacuation or a lack of timely advisory. Thus, we optimize the advisory time and the evacuation process when heavy rains or typhoons threaten to flood cities. We find the worst case of population exposure and evacuation advisory using reinforcement learning and stochastic programming. We combine mobile statistical data, flooding scenarios, and evacuation behavior. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of stochastic programming and reinforcement learning to sketch up the problem in a sequential decision analysis framework, bridging Operational Research and Machine Learning fields.

15:21
Community-led multi-hazard adaptation and risk reduction in Indonesian coastal communities: A case study towards a SEARCH model
PRESENTER: Gavin Sullivan

ABSTRACT. As an archipelagic nation, Indonesia and its coastal areas and communities are significantly impacted by climate change. However, despite the various measures for Climate Change Adaptation- Disaster Risk Reduction (CCA-DRR) adopted by the Indonesian government, the recent triple disaster (tsunami, earthquake, liquefaction) that occurred on the 28th of September 2018 in Palu Bay, Central Sulawesi caused approximately 2,113 deaths and injured 4,612 people with an estimated further 1,309 people reported as missing. One year post-disaster, there were still some 57,000 survivors living in tents and transitional shelters. These impacts highlight the position of coastal communities in the frontline of risk and, consistent with previous research, reveal flaws in the current measures to improve preparedness for future disasters and climate change. This disaster shows the urgent need for a new approach to CCA-DRR in people living in coastal areas; specifically to strengthen their social and economic resilience through community-led CCA-DRR. This is a promising bottom-up approach which focuses on community-led initiatives and building community engagement through discussions towards a collective vision and goals. Our case study of Palu aims to address the current and further prospective implementation of community-led CCA-DRR approach to multi-hazard coastal areas. This study examined the secondary data (e.g., reports) while also obtaining the primary data using purposive sampling with total 28 in-depth interviews with key figures and local experts as well as five focus-group discussions with the community and local government from four locations affected by the disaster. The findings of a Reflexive Thematic Analysis and triangulation of multiple data sources reveal that the implementation of community-led CCA-DRR has several potentials to be emphasised in theories and policies enhanced in practice: (i) there is increased awareness of community self-determination to prepare for future risks including their affective and identity features, (ii) a sense of collaborative work with different stakeholders in CCA-DRR measures has been established in the community, and (iii) the use of existing personal and collective strengths, knowledge and assets of the local community after the disaster. Consistent with our emerging SEARCH model which integrates economic, social and environmental (e.g., quality of life, social capital, collective memory and emotion, collective agency) features, our research also identifies changes that need to occur in order to establish community-led CCA-DRR: (i) more support to develop capable community leadership at the forefront of CCA-DRR measures, and (ii) integration of the long-term and relational nature of future-focused community initiatives required to sustain enablers such as long-term investment and adaptive capacity. Realizing the potential and addressing the challenges in implementing community-led CCA-DRR is the first step to strengthening coastal community resilience and further scaling up of community-driven initiatives.

15:33
Innovative coastal communities resilience through nexus social, ecosystem, and technology: Opportunities and challenges in Indonesia

ABSTRACT. Government, industry, and nonprofit organizations concentrate on programs that promote community resilience to disasters. Increased risk can be addressed by effective planning and disaster management training. As coastal development and population growth accelerate, it is critical to efficiently manage the adverse consequences of tsunamis and coastal degradation. It is acknowledged that various frameworks and approaches have been developed but its effectiveness to reduce risk remains challengings. Sendai Framework 2015-2030 reminds us of the need to invest in disaster risk reduction including utilizing technology. Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) technologies promise an exciting way to meet this ongoing demand. Although virtual reality and augmented reality have been used in a variety of training simulations in developed countries for decades, no existing literature has synthesized the empirical evidence for VR's acceptability, feasibility, and efficacy in the context of tsunami risk and coastal degradation in developing countries. To address this critical need, the current systematic review summarizes numerous research findings using virtual reality as a tool for disaster preparedness and resilience training. With an eye toward VR's potential utility in meeting the massive demand for services caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, we make recommendations for critical future directions and methodological considerations in the context of disaster in developing countries at high risk of a tsunami event.

14:45-16:00 Session 2D: Priority 4 - Building back safer structures
Chair:
14:45
Development of a rapid visual survey tool for multi-hazard housing safety of non-engineered construction
PRESENTER: Arvin Hadlos

ABSTRACT. More than 74% of the Philippines’ population is likely to experience the impacts of multiple natural hazards, highlighting the need to reduce multi-hazard risks. Most multi-hazard interventions, however, are focused on mapping the interplay of risks at a macro level such as municipal or district assessments. There has been less emphasis at the household level to structurally assess how households address housing safety to reduce multi-hazard risks in reconstruction after disasters. In low- and middle-income countries, housing reconstruction is often non-engineered and unaided by technical assistance. While tools to assess building structural safety generally exist, assessment instruments tailored to multi-hazard non-engineered construction are limited. This research developed a rapid visual survey tool for non-engineered construction to enable the analysis of multi-hazard housing safety assessment for the Philippines. We collated prescriptive guidelines for safe non-engineered housing together with post-disaster reconnaissance reports to identify considerations for assessing housing safe-ty against typhoons and earthquakes – two of the most prominent hazards in the country. The developed tool accounts for the evaluation of housing features salient to withstand wind and seismic impacts, such as (i) building configuration, (ii) fenestrations, (iii) lateral resisting member, (iv) joints and connections, (v) foundations, (vi) materials, and (vii) construction quality. Being generic, the intention is that the tool can be adaptable to the different and hybrid housing typologies that emerge during reconstruction. We envision that the developed tool serves as a starting point to address structural challenges at the household level which are often missed in the broader disaster risk reduction interventions.

14:57
The environmentally substitution of shellfish shells on the strength of concrete
PRESENTER: Andi Yusra

ABSTRACT. The research was conducted to determine the effect of the use of shellfish shells on the compressive strength of concrete. The maximum diameter of the aggregate used is 19 mm, and the cement used is Portland cement type I. The concrete mix design used the American Concrete Institute (ACI) method with a slump design of 75-100 mm. The test object used was a cylinder with a diameter of 15 cm and a height of 30 cm. The variations in the use of shellfish shell powder were 0%, 2%, 4%, 6%, and 8%, and 0% shellfish shell powder is a comparison test object. For each variation of shell powder, 3 (three) cylindrical specimens were made with test times of 7 and 28 days. The test results show that for the split tensile strength of concrete at 28 days of concrete age with a variable of 2% and compressive strength of a variation of 4%. The addition of 2% clamshell powder can increase the split tensile strength of normal concrete by 10.48%, and an increase in concrete compressive strength of 21.98% in the substitution of 6% shell powder. The novelty obtained from this research is the use of shell powder with 6% substitution to replace cement, which produces a significant concrete compressive strength, namely 0% shellfish powder has a compressive strength of 26.610 MPa compared to 6% substitution, which has a strength of 32.460 MPa.

15:09
Bayesian optimization of convolutional neural networks for categorizing the height and nonregularities of low to mid-rise buildings in Google street view

ABSTRACT. There is a constant endeavor to search for better, more efficient methods in disaster risk management. This is especially significant for an earthquake-prone country such as the Philippines wherein numerous frameworks for any building’s vulnerability have been integrated into common practice and continue to be developed until now. However, physically going to these buildings for visual assessment may entail unnecessary expenses and effort which can be impractical in some situations, thus opening the possibility of the automation of building categorization through virtual images of buildings and through the use of machine learning – specifically in convolutional neural networks. With that potential in mind, this research aimed to find an optimal configuration of a convolutional neural network that can classify Google Street View images of buildings in the Greater Metro Manila Area according to their height and detect the presence of out-of-plane setbacks, soft stories, split levels, and short columns. The hyperparameters for an optimized ResNet50 network were obtained through the use of Bayesian optimization, and its performance was compared to a base network with training hyperparameters that were obtained from a past research. A total of 2100 images were obtained, although some of the binary classifications were severely imbalanced, reaching ratios of up to 1:4.5 for the split levels and even 1:21 for the short columns. Classification results showed that optimized networks performed better for three out of the five classifications, but not for the soft stories and short columns. The main source of error was speculated to be associated with the lack of statistical analysis since only the averages of accuracies and F1 scores of the networks were compared, leaving the possibility of the obtained trials being at tail ends of the multivariate normal distribution. Thus, future studies should apply techniques to mend the class imbalances and perform statistical analysis via student’s t-test or ANOVA among others for a more grounded conclusion on the comparison between the two kinds of networks. Despite these shortcomings, there is still promising potential for Bayesian optimization in creating more efficient automated building categorization, and it remains to be a systematic process in obtaining hyperparameters for any classification task.

15:21
Reviewing the earthquake performance of typical confined masonry residential houses in Aceh
PRESENTER: Adrian Ulza

ABSTRACT. The confined masonry popularity is attributed by the informal availability of its material, which are masonry, cement, aggregate, and reinforcing steel. In addition, its constructability did not require intensive labors, since most of common construction worker already familiar to its practices. Different with reinforced concrete masonry-infilled, in confined masonry, the reinforced concrete column and beam act as the masonry stiffener, and built following the completion of masonry bricks are stacked. Typically, the dimension of reinforced concrete members is the same as the width of brick masonry, offering an easier installation of formwork and concrete pouring. Due to its minimum dimension, the reinforced concrete members might contribute relatively small stiffness and act together with masonry wall to resist the lateral load and improve its stability. Although the confined masonry system is claimed to have a good performance during an earthquake, and it is reportedly that there are ongoing initiatives to promote confined masonry system in some region, there is evidence where the damage of confined masonry due to earthquake can be minimum or extensively lead to catastrophic, as reported in 6.5 Mw Pidie Jaya earthquake in 2016 (located in Aceh province, Indonesia). Confined masonry is a traditional structural system where its standard practices can be found in many guidelines and building codes around the world. In Indonesia, several publication and technical guidelines has been made to reflect the good practices in adopting the confined masonry as structural system in residential housing. However, the current practices are mainly determined arbitrarily on the basis of worker knowledge by their past experience. The lacks of labor workmanship and literacy in accordance with the guidelines or standards of how to develop a good detailing of reinforcing bar, maintaining quality control of concrete mixture, and the limitation of tie-column spacing are the main issue on why is that the shaking of Pidie Jaya earthquake can be quite disastrous to several houses that using confined masonry system. This study aims to describe the typical construction of confined masonry in Aceh. In order to quantify its performance due to earthquake shaking, analytical study based on Nonlinear Time History Analysis (NLTHA) will be employed. The findings of this study are in hope to be beneficial to promote the good practices of confined masonry as structural system which area feasible as earthquake-resistant housing in intense seismic region.

15:33
Effects of wall aspect ratio in computational modeling of the confined masonry walls structure using pushover analysis
PRESENTER: Nora Abdullah

ABSTRACT. This paper focuses on the effects of the wall aspect ratio of the typical confined masonry wall (CMW) housing structure in Aceh Province-Indonesia concerning the capacity of this structure. Wall aspect ratios which are 3:3, 3:4, and 4:3 are applied in the CMW structure and the capacity is computed by using in-plane pushover analysis which the macro model of wall applied. The best behavior of the CMW structure is suggested from the analysis results. It is important to understand the effect of the wall aspect ratio to suggest the best practice of CMS structure in an earthquake-prone area due to the changing behavior of a squat or slender wall. At last, the limitations of this research are stated relating to the pushover analysis of the CMW structure.

16:00-17:30 Transfer to Dinner

Bus to depart in front of ABS main entrance at 4:30pm for Circular Quay.

17:30-19:30 Sunset Dinner Cruise

Departs from Circular Quay Wharf 6 promptly at 5:30pm. Please make sure you are onboard at 15 minutes prior to departure.