Forecasting System Using Single Exponential Smoothing with Golden Section Optimization

EasyChair Preprint no. 1967

Abstract

The limited liability company of Puri Wira Mahkota is the type of manufacturing company in the automotive parts industry. Puri Wira Mahkota has obstacles in the preparing weekly order on stock to the primary production unit. They predicting total sales of goods in the coming period using expectation of the stock administration then compared with sales data in the previous period without any calculations using a definitive formula. Forecasting system could support Puri Wira Mahkota to predicting stock. The purpose of this research is to be able to build a forecasting system that can predict how many items should be produced by the primary production unit every month and also to prevent over stock and out of stock. The method used in the forecasting system is Single Exponential Smoothing. To optimize Single Exponential Smoothing we used the Golden Section. The principle of the Golden Section is to reduce the alpha area boundary so as to produce the ideal forecasting value with the minimum MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). This research shows the results that the Golden Section found the optimal forecasting value with a MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) rate of 47,50%.

Keyphrases: forecasting system, golden section, single exponential smoothing

@Booklet{EasyChair:1967,
  author = {Ni Putu Surya Widitriani and Wayan Gede Suka Parwita and Ni Putu Suci Meinarni},
  title = {Forecasting System Using Single Exponential Smoothing with Golden Section Optimization},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 1967},

  year = {EasyChair, 2019}}