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Regional Wind Power Ramp Forecasting through Multinomial Logistic Regression

EasyChair Preprint no. 3392

6 pagesDate: May 12, 2020


Wind power ramps are the abrupt yet significant change in wind power productions. The information on the ordinal levels of impending wind power ramp could help power system operator to arm operation or ramping reserves in a timely manner. This paper presents novel approaches for regional wind power ramp level forecasting using real-time meso-scale wind speed measurements. Motivated by the correlation of the meso-scale wind speed measurements with the regional wind power data, the proposed approach utilizes multinomial logistic regression for wind power ramp forecasting. An approach that combines the probabilistic output of individual regressive models in a weighted manner is proposed, with the weights calculated by minimizing the Brier skill score of the combined model. The proposed methods are tested by using real-world data, and is compared with benchmark methods. The results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

Keyphrases: multinomial logistic regression, ramp forecasting, wind power

BibTeX entry
BibTeX does not have the right entry for preprints. This is a hack for producing the correct reference:
  author = {Xm Chen and Jie Zhao and Miao He},
  title = {Regional Wind Power Ramp Forecasting through Multinomial Logistic Regression},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint no. 3392},

  year = {EasyChair, 2020}}
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