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![]() Title:Predicting Flight Delays Without Weather Data: a Cost-Sensitive CatBoost Approach with Temporal Undersampling Conference:ECAI-2026 Tags:big data, CatBoost, class imbalance, cost-sensitive learning, gradient boosting and temporal undersampling Abstract: Most flight-delay prediction systems rely on real-time meteorological data, which are rarely available in large historical aviation archives. This paper shows that competitive performance is still achievable using only historical operational data. We train a cost-sensitive CatBoost classifier on a 240-million-record dataset of U.S. domestic flights, under strict chronological validation, and introduce a Temporal Undersampling strategy that addresses the severe class imbalance by removing the oldest On-Time records rather than random ones. The proposed approach outperforms four baseline imbalance-handling strategies and, on a balanced evaluation set, exceeds the best F1-Score reported by a recent IEEE DASC reference study that relied on weather data. Predicting Flight Delays Without Weather Data: a Cost-Sensitive CatBoost Approach with Temporal Undersampling ![]() Predicting Flight Delays Without Weather Data: a Cost-Sensitive CatBoost Approach with Temporal Undersampling | ||||
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