Tags:DS-bivariate random walk, Dynamic p-box and Lower and upper dynamic Value-at-Risk
Abstract:
Referring to Dempster-Shafer theory, we introduce a bivariate random walk enforcing Markovianity and time-homogeneity under a pessimistic view concerning ambiguity. This is done through a suitable family of joint $t$-step transition belief functions, generalizing the product of two independent binomial transitions, where ambiguity is expressed by the excessive weight to unity. Given a real-valued function of the pair at a fixed horizon, we define the dynamic lower and upper Value-at-Risk (VaR), generated by the corresponding dynamic p-box.
Imprecise Dynamic Value-at-Risk Induced by a DS-Bivariate Random Walk