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![]() Title:A framework to study the lifespan resilience of critical infrastructure in the face of the evolution of disaster risks Conference:ESREL & SRA-E 2025 Tags:critical infrastructure, disaster risk evolution, life cycle analysis, methodological framework and resilience study Abstract: Climate change, among other global trends, significantly impacts the exposure and vulnerability of critical infrastructures while influencing their resilience capacities. This complex interplay of factors challenges organizations to proactively identify and prepare for potential future events, challenges, or changes before they occur. This capacity of anticipation is crucial to maintain system resilience, as it allows organizations to detect early warning signs, allocate resources efficiently, and respond more effectively to expected and unexpected disturbances. It requires continuous learning, flexible planning, and a systemic understanding of complex interactions within and outside the organization. This paper presents the Disaster Risk-gUided Scenario Definition (DRUID) framework that aims to guide the definition of scenarios that support the study of the resilience of the lifespan of a critical infrastructure. It is an interative four-step approach. The first step consists of posing the problem to address using a canonical problem formulation and then collecting the necessary data. The second step elaborates representative prospective scenarios using the General Morphological Analysis (GMA) approach. For each representative scenario, the third step aims to study the resilience of the critical infrastructure when faced with specific types of disaster risks. It consists of an iterative model that aims to identify the potential consequences of disaster risks on the resilience of the critical infrastructure throughout its lifespan, given plausible decision-making alternatives. The fourth step involves discussing the results obtained regarding the formulated problem. The paper describes and partially illustrates the DRUID method through a pedagogical case study on the development of a PV power plant in a mountainous region with Mediterranean climate in the southeast of France. A framework to study the lifespan resilience of critical infrastructure in the face of the evolution of disaster risks ![]() A framework to study the lifespan resilience of critical infrastructure in the face of the evolution of disaster risks | ||||
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