Tags:Commodity prices, Financialization and Speculation
Abstract:
In this paper, we study commodity pricing. To explain commodity prices and return volatility, we consider both a classical fundamental-based model with a rational representative agent and a behavioral extension with heterogeneous agents. We formally examine the role of speculators, in particular in relation to the super cycle in commodities and the time period most associated with the so-called financialization of commodities. We examine a total of 15 commodities covering agriculture, softs, energy and metals and a sample where possible covers the period from 1959 to 2017. In all cases, especially in the final part of the sample period, we reject the restrictions associated with the rational representative agent model. Our behavioral model, which augments the fundamentals based investor with both heterogeneous investors and heterogeneous horizons, performs much better and in particular during the commodity super cycle and the recent period of financialization of commodities.
Commodity Pricing: Time-Varying Discount Rates vs. Investors' Heterogeneity