Coral bleaching poses a growing threat to marine ecosystems. This study developed a geospatial model to optimize bleaching alerts in the Mesoamerican Reef System (SAM), integrating NOAA Coral Reef Watch satellite data and in situ records from Coral Watch, Reef Check, and Fundaeco. Over 12,000 NetCDF files and 63,000 coral observations from 2018–2024 were processed. The methodology included temporal and spatial analyses of thermal stress, construction of predictor matrices, and training of three Random Forest model versions with hyperparameter tuning and class balancing. The optimized model improved alert sensitivity compared to the global threshold, achieving ROC-AUC accuracy above 0.85. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of incorporating regional data into predictive models and provide strategic inputs for adaptive reef management. This approach is replicable in other vulnerable ecosystems.