SBE39: 39TH MEETING OF THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY
PROGRAM

Days: Tuesday, December 12th Wednesday, December 13th Thursday, December 14th Friday, December 15th

Tuesday, December 12th

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14:45-16:30 Session 1: Sessão Especial REAP I

A Desigualdade Realmente Caiu no Brasil?

Chair:
Naercio Menezes-Filho (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
14:45
Marcelo Neri (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Distribuição de Renda no Brasil: Nível e Mudanças Recentes ( abstract )
15:30
Da celebração ao ceticismo: os descaminhos da desigualdade brasileira no século 21 ( abstract )
16:45-18:30 Session 2: Sessão Especial REAP II

Aposentadoria no Brasil

Chair:
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Location: Jade
16:45
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Ricardo Brito (Insper, Brazil)
Marcelo Santos (Insper, Brazil)
Why Are Savings Rate so Low and Interest Rates so High in Brazil? The Role of Institutions ( abstract )
18:30
Reynaldo Fernandes (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Naercio Menezes-Filho (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
André Portela Souza (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Bruno Komatsu (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Gustavo Marcos Mentlik (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Reforma da Previdência: Sustentabilidade e Justiça Atuarial ( abstract )
Wednesday, December 13th

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08:30-10:15 Session 5A: Health
Chair:
Bladimir Carrillo (UFV, Brazil)
Location: Mezanino Bossa Nova
08:30
Pedro Américo (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Rudi Rocha (UFRJ, Brazil)
Prescription Drug Cost-Sharing and Health Outcomes: Evidence from a Developing Country ( abstract )
09:00
Leticia Nunes (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Francisco Costa (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Fabio Miessi Sanches (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Unveiling Physicians' Geographical Misallocation: Evidence from a Developing Country ( abstract )
09:30
Bladimir Carrillo (UFV, Brazil)
Jose Feres (IPEA, Brazil)
More Doctors, Better Health? Evidence from a Physician Distribution Policy ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 5B: Labor I
Chair:
Leonardo Monasterio (UCB e IPEA, Brazil)
Location: Jade
08:30
Stephen O'Connell (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, United States)
Lucas Mation (IPEA, Brazil)
Mark Dutz (World Bank, United States)
Can business input improve the effectiveness of worker training? Evidence from Brazil's Pronatec-MDIC ( abstract )
09:00
Carlos Alberto Belchior (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Wages and tasks of outsourced workers: the case of call centers in Brazil ( abstract )
09:30
Raphael Corbi (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Tiago Ferraz (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Rainfall, Internal Migration and Local Labor Markets in Brazil ( abstract )
10:00
Philipp Ehrl (UCB, Brazil)
Leonardo Monasterio (UCB e IPEA, Brazil)
Inherited cultural diversity and wages in Brazil ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 5C: Finance I
Chair:
Eduardo Zilberman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
08:30
Fernando Chague (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Rodrigo De-Losso (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Bruno Giovannetti (FGV/ESSP, Brazil)
Individual Investors and the Price Tag Illusion ( abstract )
09:00
Joelson Sampaio (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Antonio Carvalho (FGV/EAESP, Brazil)
Roberto Pinheiro (Federal Reserve at Cleveland, United States)
Dotcom Price Spiral ( abstract )
09:30
Eduardo Zilberman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Carlos Carvalho (BCB e PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Daniel Cordeiro (XP, Brazil)
Ruy Ribeiro (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Gambling, Risk Appetite and Asset Pricing ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 5D: Macroeconomics I
Chair:
Napoleão Silva (IPEA, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
08:30
Wagner Gaglianone (BCB, Brazil)
Raffaella Giacomini (University College London, UK)
João Victor Issler (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Vasiliki Skreta (University College London, UK)
Incentive-driven Inattention ( abstract )
08:55
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Carlos Carvalho (BCB e PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Rodolfo Rigato (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Aggregate versus Sectoral Shocks: What Drives Price Setting Dynamics? ( abstract )
09:20
Bernardo S. C. Ribeiro (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Structural transformation in Brazil: the 1980s and the importance of an open economy framework ( abstract )
09:45
Napoleão Silva (IPEA, Brazil)
Eduardo Zilberman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Restrições financeiras e o PIB per capita no Brasil ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 5E: Minicurso SBE - Aula 1
Location: Água Marinha
08:30
Amanda Arabage (FGV/EESP Clear, Brazil)
Juliana Camargo (FGV/EESP Clear, Brazil)
Introdução à Avaliação Quantitativa de Impacto ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 6A: Sessão Especial Banco Mundial

Productivity and inclusion in Brazil

Chair:
Mark Dutz (World Bank, United States)
Location: Jade
10:30
Antonio Nucifora (World Bank, Brazil)
Rong Qian (World Bank, United States)
Jorge Thompson Araujo (World Bank, United States)
Productivity performance in Brazil ( abstract )
11:05
Pedro Olinto (World Bank, Brazil)
Mariana Vijil (World Bank, United States)
Vivian de Fatima Amorim (World Bank, Brazil)
Mark Dutz (World Bank, United States)
The distributional effects of trade policy in Brazil ( abstract )
11:40
Eduardo Ribeiro (UFRJ, Brazil)
Steen Byskov (World Bank, United States)
Pietro Calice (World Bank, United States)
Subsidized Capital Goods Credit, Financial Dependency and Misallocation in Manufacturing and Services ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 6B: Sessão Especial Prêmio SBE Finanças
Chair:
Bruno Giovannetti (FGV/ESSP, Brazil)
Discussants:
Fernando Chague (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Bruno Giovannetti (FGV/ESSP, Brazil)
Ruy Ribeiro (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
10:30
Thiago Silva (BCB, Brazil)
Benjamin Tabak (UCB, Brazil)
Michel Alexandre (BCB, Brazil)
Systemic Risk in Financial Systems: a feedback approach ( abstract )
11:15
Kym Ardison (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Caio Almeida (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
René Garcia (University of Montreal, Canada)
Nonparametric Assessment of Hedge Fund Performance ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 6C: Economics and Politics I
Chair:
Raphael Corbi (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Água Marinha
10:30
Valdemar Pinho Neto (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Cecilia Machado (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting Behavior in Brazil ( abstract )
10:55
Alexsandros Fraga (Bocconi University, Brazil)
Raphael Corbi (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Luis Meloni (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Edited democracy? Evidence from the 1989 Brazilian Presidential Election ( abstract )
11:20
Mariana Davi (Banco Cooperativo Sicredi, Brazil)
Marcelo Portugal (UFRGS, Brazil)
Politics and finance: a study on the impact of campaign donations on Brazilian firms ( abstract )
11:45
Raphael Corbi (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Emotional Voters ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 6D: Human Capital
Chair:
João Victor Issler (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
10:30
Luiz Brotherhood (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Bruno Ricardo Delalibera (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Do Developing Countries Overinvest in Public College? ( abstract )
11:00
Bruno Delalibera (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Fernando Barros Jr (FUCAPE, Brazil)
The importance of teachers' human capital in an economy with market frictions ( abstract )
11:30
Luiz Brotherhood (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
João Victor Issler (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Measuring Human Capital Using Labor Market Data: An Application to the Study of Cross-Country Economic Growth ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 6E: Labor II
Chair:
Flávia Chein (UFJF, Brazil)
Location: Mezanino Bossa Nova
10:30
Juliana Camargo (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Lycia Lima (FGV/EAESP, Brazil)
André Portela Souza (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Flávio Riva (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Vocational education and socioeconomic outcomes: experimental evidence from Brazil ( abstract )
11:00
Rafael Cayres (BNDES, Brazil)
Gustavo Gonzaga (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Juliano Assunção (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Tenure dependent Firing costs and turnover in Brazil ( abstract )
11:30
Cleiton Franco (UNEMAT, Brazil)
Breno Sampaio (UFPE, Brazil)
Gustavo Ramos Sampaio (UFPE, Brazil)
Paulo Henrique Vaz (UFPE, Brazil)
Tax Compliance Costs and Employment in SMEs: Evidence from Brazil ( abstract )
12:00
Marcelo Arbex (University of Windsor, Canada)
Flávia Chein (UFJF, Brazil)
Isabela Furtado (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Enlinson Mattos (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Publicly Provided Private Goods and Informal Labor Supply ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 7A: Sessão Especial Itaú Social

Mensurando a Efetividade dos Professores: Observação na Sala de Aula

Chair:
Naercio Menezes-Filho (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
13:45
David Blazar (University of Maryland, United States)
Matthew A. Kraft (Brown University, United States)
Teacher and Teaching Effects on Students' Attitudes and Behaviors ( abstract )
14:30
Andrew Bacher-Hicks (Harvard University, United States)
Mark Chin (Harvard University, United States)
Thomas J. Kane (Harvard University, United States)
Douglas O. Staiger (Dartmouth College, United States)
Validating Components of Teacher Effectiveness: A Random Assignment Study of Value-Added, Classroom Observations, and Student Surveys ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 7B: Theory I
Chair:
Humberto Moreira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
13:45
Matheus Costa (UnB, Brazil)
Paulo Henrique Ramos (UnB, Brazil)
Gil Riella (FGV/ENAE, Brazil)
Single-crossing Choice Correspondences ( abstract )
14:15
Paulo K Monteiro (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Jaime Orrillo (UCB, Brazil)
Rudy Rosas-Bazán (Pontifical Catholic University of Peru, Peru)
Hyperopic Topologies on $l^{\infty}$ ( abstract )
14:45
Salvador Barberà (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Spain)
Danilo Santa Cruz Coelho (IPEA, Brazil)
On the advantages and disadvantages of being the first mover under rules of k names ( abstract )
15:15
Humberto Moreira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Paulo Monteiro (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Vinicius Carrasco (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Vitor Farinha Luz (The University of British Columbia, Canada)
Robust mechanisms: the curvature case ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 7C: Gender
Chair:
Sergio Firpo (Insper, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
13:45
Olivier Marie (Erasmus School of Economics, Netherlands)
Arnaud Chevalier (Royal Holloway, UK)
Risky Moms, Risky Kids? Mother's Fertility Decision and Criminal Propensity of Children after the Fall of the Berlin Wall ( abstract )
14:15
Laura Schiavon (UFJF, Brazil)
Claudio Ferraz (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Breaking the cycle: the impact of legal reforms on domestic violence ( abstract )
14:45
Paulo Arvate (FGV/EAESP, Brazil)
Sergio Firpo (Insper, Brazil)
Renan Pieri (Insper, Brazil)
The engagement of adolescent girls in politics when the electoral environment for women is uncertain ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 7D: Finance II
Chair:
Flávio Ziegelmann (UFRGS, Brazil)
Location: Água Marinha
13:45
Pedro Luiz Paulino Chaim (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Márcio Poletti Laurini (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Foreign Exchange Expectation Errors and Filtration Enlargements ( abstract )
14:15
Assessing systemic risk in Brazil and its determinants with ΔCOVAR ( abstract )
14:45
Fernando Silva (UFRGS, Brazil)
Flávio Ziegelmann (UFRGS, Brazil)
Worst Case CVaR Portfolio Optimization with Multidimensional Copulas ( abstract )
15:45-17:30 Session 8: Keynote lecture
Chair:
Vladimir Ponczek (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
15:45
Flávio Cunha (Rice University, United States)
Inequality in Human Capital Investments in Early Childhood ( abstract )
17:45-19:30 Session 9: Minicurso Itaú - Aula 1
Location: Ametista
17:45
Sergio Almeida (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Economia Comportamental: Desenvolvimentos Teóricos e Implicações para Políticas Públicas ( abstract )
Thursday, December 14th

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08:30-10:15 Session 10A: Sessão Especial FIPE

EconomistAs [Brazilian Women in Economics]

Chair:
Renata Narita (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
08:30
Renata Narita (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Apresentação do grupo de pesquisa EconomistAs [Brazilian Women in Economics] ( abstract )
08:45
Cecília Machado (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Valdemar Pinho Neto (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
The Labor Market Consequences of Maternity Leave: Evidence from Brazil ( abstract )
09:30
Daniel Santos (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Quem se beneficia da expansão de creches no Brasil? ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 10B: Theory II
Chair:
Wilfredo Maldonado (UCB, Brazil)
Location: Mezanino Bossa Nova
08:30
Fernando Barros Jr (FUCAPE, Brazil)
Ricardo Cavalcanti (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
On the optimality of inside-money inflation in random-matching models ( abstract )
09:00
Liev Maribondo (IMPA, Brazil)
Susan Schommer (UERJ, Brazil)
Aloisio Araujo (IMPA e FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Collateral Requirement Regulation in a General Equilibrium Model - Job Market Paper ( abstract )
09:30
Wilfredo Maldonado (UCB, Brazil)
Luciana Fiorini (University of Western Australia, Australia)
Richard Cornes (Australian National University, Australia)
Expectational Stability in Aggregative Games ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 10C: Education I
Chair:
Isabela Furtado (World Bank e FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
08:30
Vitor Pereira (CPI, Brazil)
Claudio Ferraz (PUC-RIO, Brazil)
Can students benefit if teachers lose their bonus? Behavioral biases inside the classroom - Job Market Paper ( abstract )
09:00
Priscilla Tavares (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Vladimir Ponczek (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Efeitos de aumentos salariais dos professores sobre o desempenho dos estudantes: evidências para a rede estadual paulista ( abstract )
09:30
Luis Felipe Oliveira (IPEA e UnB, Brazil)
Rafael Terra (UnB, Brazil)
Impacto do Programa Ensino Médio Inovador em indicadores educacionais ( abstract )
10:00
Isabela Furtado (World Bank e FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Caio Piza (World Bank, Brazil)
How Early Should Financial Education Be Taught? Evidence from a Large-Scale Experiment ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 10D: DSGE
Chair:
Celso José Costa Junior (UEPG e FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Água Marinha
08:30
Lucicleyton Farias (UFPE, Brazil)
Marcelo Eduardo Alves (UFPE, Brazil)
Commodity Prices and Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: The Role of News Shocks ( abstract )
09:00
Silvio Costa (BCB, Brazil)
Structural Trends and Cycles in a DSGE Model for Brazil ( abstract )
09:30
Celso José Costa Junior (UEPG e FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Alejandro Garcia-Cintado (Pablo de Olavide University, Spain)
Carlos Usabiaga (Pablo de Olavide University, Spain)
Fiscal Adjustments and the Shadow Economy in an Emerging Market ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 10E: Finance III
Chair:
Bruno Giovannetti (FGV/ESSP, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
08:30
Fernando Barbosa (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Lira Mota (Columbia University, United States)
Loan Fee Dispersion and the Cross-Section of Returns ( abstract )
09:15
Fernando Chague (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Rodrigo De-Losso (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Bruno Giovannetti (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
The Short-selling Skill of Institutions and Individuals ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 11: Keynote lecture
Chair:
Ariaster Chimeli (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
10:30
Christopher Timmins (Duke University, United States)
Environmental Justice ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 12A: Sessão Especial Instituto Escolhas

Economia e Meio Ambiente: o papel do sistema tributário

Chair:
Sergio Leitão (Instituto Escolhas, Brazil)
Discussant:
Claudio Lucinda (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
13:45
Sergio Leitão (Instituto Escolhas, Brazil)
Fernanda Estevan (FEA/USP e SBE, Brazil)
Programa de Bolsas Edital 2018 da Cátedra Escolhas Economia e Meio Ambiente ( abstract )
14:00
Bernard Appy (Centro de Cidadania Fiscal e Instituto Escolhas, Brazil)
Economia e Meio Ambiente: o papel do sistema tributário ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 12B: Sessão Especial Prêmio SBE Econometria
Chair:
Cristine Pinto (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Discussants:
Sergio Firpo (Insper, Brazil)
Luiz Renato Lima (The University of Tennessee e UFPB, United States)
Cristine Pinto (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
13:45
Otavio Bartalotti (Iowa State University, United States)
Quentin Brummet (U.S. Census Bureau, United States)
Steven Dieterle (The University of Edinburgh, UK)
A Correction for Regression Discontinuity Designs with Multiple Mismeasurement Types in the Running Variable ( abstract )
14:30
Lara Nassar Rangel (UFRGS, Brazil)
Flávio Ziegelmann (UFRGS, Brazil)
Seasonal Weighted Lag Adaptive LASSO ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 12C: Sessão Especial Prêmio SBE Micro Aplicada
Chair:
Gustavo Gonzaga (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Discussants:
Gustavo Gonzaga (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Rodrigo Moita (Insper, Brazil)
Vladimir Ponczek (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
13:45
Renata Narita (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Gabriella Conti (University College London, UK)
Rita Ginja (University of Bergen, Norway)
Non-Contributory Health Insurance and Household Labor Supply: Evidence from Mexico ( abstract )
14:30
Rafael P. Ribas (University of Amsterdam, Netherlands)
Erasmo Giambona (Syracuse University, United States)
The External Cost of Prostitution: Evidence from Downsizing Red Light Districts in the Netherlands ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 12D: Macroeconomics II
Chair:
Felipe Iachan (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Água Marinha
13:45
Mariana Fialho Ferreira (UFES, Brazil)
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
João Victor Issler (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
On Deriving Evidence from Input-Output Linkages: A Multi-Country Sectoral Total Factor Productivity Analysis ( abstract )
14:15
Filipe Vasconcelos (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Firm dynamics and productivity learning: When wrong incentives can lead to losses Aggregated. ( abstract )
14:45
Felipe Iachan (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Dejanir Silva (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States)
Ana Luiza Dutra (Princeton University, United States)
Insuring firms, ensuring misallocation ( abstract )
13:45-15:30 Session 12E: Industrial Organization
Chair:
Nathalie Gimenes (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Mezanino Bossa Nova
13:45
Rodrigo Raad (UFMG, Brazil)
Intertemporal Consistence and Recursivity in a Stackelberg Discounted Stochastic Game ( abstract )
14:15
Mateusz Mysliwski (University College London, UK)
Fabio Miessi Sanches (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Daniel Silva-Junior (City University of London, UK)
Sorawoot Srisuma (University of Surrey, UK)
Dynamic Pricing and Consumer Loyalty in a Multiproduct Oligopoly ( abstract )
14:45
Jayeeta Bhattachary (Queen Mary University of London, UK)
Nathalie Gimenes (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Emmanuel Guerre (Queen Mary University of London, UK)
A Quantile Approach for Ascending Auctions with Asymmetric Bidders ( abstract )
15:45-17:30 Session 13A: Sessão Especial Instituto Unibanco

Implicações da flutuação dos resultados de proficiência por escola para tomada de decisão

Chair:
Mirela de Carvalho (Instituto Unibanco, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
15:45
Mirela de Carvalho (Instituto Unibanco, Brazil)
Reynaldo Fernandes (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Ricardo Madeira (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Sergio Firpo (Insper, Brazil)
presenters ( abstract )
15:45-17:30 Session 13B: Sessão Especial FGV-CLEAR & OVE-IDB

Produtividade das Firmas Brasileiras: Como Avançar?

Chair:
André Portela Souza (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
15:45
José Cláudio Linhares (OVE/BID, United States)
Angelo Duarte (Ministério da Fazenda, Brazil)
Marcelo Fabricio Prim (CNI, Brazil)
presenters ( abstract )
15:45-17:30 Session 13C: Sessão Especial FGV EPGE: Prêmio SBE Teoria
Chair:
Wilfredo Maldonado (UCB, Brazil)
Discussants:
Jefferson Bertolai (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Wilfredo Maldonado (UCB, Brazil)
Jaime Orrillo (UCB, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
15:45
Braz Camargo (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Fabian Lange (McGill University, Canada)
Elena Pastorino (Stanford University, United States)
Earnings Dynamics: The Role of Learning, Human Capital, Accumulation, and Performance Incentives ( abstract )
16:30
Kazuhiro Hara (FGV/EPGE, Japan)
Efe Ok (NYU, Turkey)
Gil Riella (FGV/ENAE, Brazil)
Coalitional Expected Multi-Utility Theory ( abstract )
15:45-17:30 Session 13D: Econometrics I
Chair:
Luiz Renato Lima (The University of Tennessee e UFPB, United States)
Location: Mezanino Bossa Nova
15:45
Ricardo Masini (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Marcelo Medeiros (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Carlos Carvalho (PUC-Rio e BCB, Brazil)
The Perils of Counterfactual Analysis with Integrated Processes ( abstract )
16:15
Alan André Borges Costa (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Sergio Firpo (Insper, Brazil)
Saturação e spillover do tratamento para quantis ( abstract )
16:45
Alessandro Casalecchi (none, Brazil)
Sergio Firpo (Insper, Brazil)
Antonio Galvao (University of Arizona, United States)
Improvements for external validity tests in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs ( abstract )
17:15
Luiz Renato Lima (UFPB e The University of Tennessee, United States)
Fanning Meng (ScotiaBank-Toronto, Canada)
Quantile Forecasting with Mixed-Frequency Data ( abstract )
15:45-17:30 Session 13E: Macroeconomics III
Chair:
Emerson Marçal (FGV/EESP e Mackenzie, Brazil)
Location: Água Marinha
15:45
Diogo Guillen (Itau Asset Management, Brazil)
Bernardo S. C. Ribeiro (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
A Structural Time-Varying Index for Business Cycle Synchronization in Small Open Economies ( abstract )
16:15
Ricardo Sabbadini (BCB e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Overcoming the original sin: Gains from local currency external debt ( abstract )
16:45
Emerson Marçal (FGV/EESP e Mackenzie, Brazil)
Diogo de Prince (UNIFESP, Brazil)
Giovani Merlin (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Beatrice Zimmermann (World Bank, Brazil)
Addressing econometric issues on how to construct theoretical based exchange rate misalignment estimates: searching for a comprehensive approach. ( abstract )
17:45-19:30 Session 14A: Sessão Especial Bradesco: Prêmio SBE Macro Aplicada
Chair:
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Discussants:
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Fábio Gomes (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Eduardo Zilberman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
17:45
Sergio Lago Alves (BCB, Brazil)
Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and Unemployment Volatility ( abstract )
18:30
Cezar Santos (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Tiago Cavalcanti (University of Cambridge e FGV/EESP, UK)
Georgi Kocharkov (University of Konstanz, Germany)
Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use ( abstract )
17:45-19:30 Session 14B: Minicurso Itaú - Aula 2
Location: Ametista
17:45
Sergio Almeida (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Economia Comportamental: Desenvolvimentos Teóricos e Implicações para Políticas Públicas ( abstract )
Friday, December 15th

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08:30-10:15 Session 17A: Education II
Chair:
Cristine Pinto (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
08:30
Beatriz Velho (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Eduardo Zilberman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Carlos Viana (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Negative Role Model Effects on Education: The Impact of Successful Soccer Players on Brazilian Schools’ Performance ( abstract )
09:00
Elena Arias Ortiz (BID, United States)
Joao Marcelo Borges (BID, Brazil)
Daniel Santos (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Developing socioemotional skills in secondary school: Short term impacts from a randomized experiment in Ceará, Brazil ( abstract )
09:30
Vladimir Ponczek (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Cristine Pinto (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
The Building Blocks of Skill Development ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 17B: Economics and Politics II
Chair:
Location: Ametista
08:30
Danilo Souza (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Marcos Nakaguma (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Determinants and Effects of Negative Advertising in Politics ( abstract )
09:00
Guilherme Oliveira (BCB, Brazil)
Benjamin Tabak (UCB, Brazil)
Daniel Cajueiro (UnB, Brazil)
Bank Lending and Politics ( abstract )
09:30
Efeitos da comunicação oficial e extra-oficial do Banco Central do Brasil sobre a curva de juros ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 17C: Forecasting and Risk
Chair:
Marcio Laurini (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
08:30
Fábio Gomes (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Preferências CRRA e recursivas são equivalentes? Estimando a elasticidade de substituição intertemporal ( abstract )
09:00
Gabriel Vasconcelos (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Marcelo Medeiros (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Alvaro Veiga (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Forecasting US inflation in a data-rich environment: The benefits of machine learning methods - Job Market Paper ( abstract )
09:30
Pedro Henrique Engel (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Joao Paulo Valente (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Caio Almeida (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Risk Aversion or Model Uncertainty? An Empirical Cross-Sectional Analysis Across Countries ( abstract )
10:00
Marcio Laurini (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
A continuous spatio-temporal approach to estimate climate change ( abstract )
08:30-10:15 Session 17D: Minicurso SBE - Aula 2
Location: Água Marinha
08:30
Amanda Arabage (FGV/EESP Clear, Brazil)
Juliana Camargo (FGV/EESP Clear, Brazil)
Introdução à Avaliação Quantitativa de Impacto ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 18A: Theory III
Chair:
Rodrigo Moita (Insper, Brazil)
Location: Mezanino Bossa Nova
10:30
Rodrigo B. Andrade (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Optimal procurement with sequential cost information ( abstract )
11:00
Carlos Eugênio Da Costa (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Humberto Moreira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Felipe Lobel (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Cassiano Alves (Northwestern University, United States)
Optimal Non-Linear Joint Income Taxation ( abstract )
11:30
Jefferson Bertolai (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Ricardo Cavalcanti (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Paulo Klinger Monteiro (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Bank runs with many small banks and mutual guarantees at the terminal stage ( abstract )
12:00
Rodrigo Moita (Insper, Brazil)
Daniel Monte (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Competition in Cascades ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 18B: Environment
Chair:
Claudio Lucinda (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Location: Jade
10:30
Arthur Braganca (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
The Effects of Crop-to-Beef Relative Prices on Deforestation: Evidence from the Tapajós Basin ( abstract )
11:15
Claudio Lucinda (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
The Environmental Effects of a Gas Prices Holiday ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 18C: Corporate
Chair:
Ricardo Schechtman (BCB, Brazil)
Location: Topázio
10:30
Aloisio Araujo (IMPA e FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Rafael Ferreira (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Flavio Moraes (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Gustavo Araujo (BCB, Brazil)
Liquidation Values and DIP Financing: Evidence from Corporate Reorganizations in Brazil ( abstract )
11:00
Ruy Ribeiro (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Leandro Gomes (Gávea Investimentos, Brazil)
Term Structure(s) of Equity Risk Premium ( abstract )
11:30
Ricardo Schechtman (BCB, Brazil)
Tony Takeda (BCB, Brazil)
Capital (and earnings) incentives for loan loss provisions in Brazil: evidence from a crisis-buffering regulatory intervention ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 18D: Development Economics
Chair:
Luciene Pereira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Ametista
10:30
Eduardo Haddad (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Andrés Maggi (Princeton University, United States)
The Impact of Productivity Growth in China on the Brazilian Economy ( abstract )
11:00
Alvaro Cox (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
State Capacity and Productive Development: The Peruvian Case ( abstract )
11:30
Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Alex Monge-Naranjo (FED St Louis, United States)
Luciene Pereira (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Of Cities and Slums - Job Market Paper ( abstract )
10:30-12:15 Session 18E: Applied Microeconomics
Chair:
Ciro Biderman (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Água Marinha
10:30
Cecilia Machado (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Valdemar Pinho Neto (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Christiane Szerman (Princeton University, Brazil)
Youth Responses to Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil ( abstract )
11:15
Ciro Biderman (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Martha Hiromoto (FGV/EAESP, Brazil)
Frederico Ramos (FGV/EAESP, Brazil)
Social Housing and Sprawl: The Minha Casa Minha Vida Case ( abstract )