PROGRAM
Days: Thursday, May 29th Friday, May 30th Saturday, May 31st
Thursday, May 29th
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
14:00-15:40 Session 1A: Empirical Macroeconomics I
Location: Room 7, Building 19
14:00 | Large datasets for the Euro Area and its member countries and the dynamic effects of the common monetary policy (abstract) PRESENTER: Lorenzo Tonni |
14:25 | Piecing the puzzle: real exchange rates and long-run fundamentals (abstract) PRESENTER: Nicolò Maffei Faccioli |
14:50 | Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality (abstract) |
15:15 | Cast out the pure? Inflation and relative prices on both sides of the Atlantic (abstract) PRESENTER: Chiara Osbat |
14:00-15:40 Session 1B: Cointegration
Location: Room 8, Building 19
14:00 | Inference on the cointegration and the attractor spaces via functional approximation (abstract) PRESENTER: Massimo Franchi |
14:25 | Common Trends and Long-Run Identification in Nonlinear Structural VARs (abstract) PRESENTER: James Duffy |
14:50 | Robust Multivariate Observation-Driven Filtering for a Common Stochastic Trend: Theory and Application (abstract) PRESENTER: Janneke van Brummelen |
15:15 | Integrated Modified OLS Estimation and Fixed-b Inference for Cointegrating Multivariate Polynomial Regressions (abstract) PRESENTER: Martin Wagner |
14:00-15:40 Session 1C: Microeconometric Methods
Location: Room 9, Building 19
14:00 | Identifying Causal Effects of Discrete, Ordered and Continuous Treatments using Multiple Instrumental Variables (abstract) |
14:25 | A Local Differencing Test for the Credibility of Selection-on-Observables (abstract) PRESENTER: Riccardo Di Francesco |
14:50 | A Test for Bayesian-Nash Behavior in Binary Games with Incomplete Information and Correlated Types (abstract) PRESENTER: Elia Lapenta |
14:00-15:40 Session 1D: Time Series Theory I
Location: Room 10, Building 19
14:00 | Quantile Granger Causality in the Presence of Instability (abstract) PRESENTER: Alexander Mayer |
14:25 | Pseudo-variance quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of semi-parametric time series models (abstract) PRESENTER: Mirko Armillotta |
14:50 | Inference on breaks in weak location time series models with quasi-Fisher scores (abstract) PRESENTER: Jean-Michel Zakoian |
14:00-15:40 Session 1E: Machine Learning Methods I
Location: Room 11, Building 19
14:00 | Probabilistic Partial Least Squares (abstract) PRESENTER: Miguel Herculano |
14:25 | Locally Robust Estimation of the Intergenerational Elasticity (abstract) |
14:50 | Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Data with Instrumental Variables: New Method and Applications (abstract) PRESENTER: Annalivia Polselli |
14:00-15:40 Session 1F: Macroeconometric Methods I
Location: Room 12, Building 19
14:00 | Inference with Local Projections (abstract) |
14:25 | Functional Linear Projection and Impulse Response Analysis (abstract) PRESENTER: Won-Ki Seo |
14:50 | Nonparametric Local Projections (abstract) PRESENTER: Elena Pesavento |
15:40-16:40Coffee Break
15:40-16:40 Session 2: Poster Session I
Location: Block B (first floor), Building 19
Counterfactual and Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Instrumented Principal Component Analysis (abstract) |
Fiscal Shocks and the Surge of Inflation (abstract) |
Testing Conditional Moment Restrictions: A Partitioning Approach (abstract) |
It is All About Demand and Supply: a Dualistic View of the Euro Area Business Cycle (abstract) PRESENTER: Marco Mazzali |
Improved Inference for Nonparametric Regression and Regression-Discontinuity Designs (abstract) PRESENTER: Edoardo Zanelli |
Partially Identified Rankings from Pairwise Interactions} (abstract) PRESENTER: Federico Crippa |
Distributional Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods (abstract) |
Climate and Macroeconomic Variability (abstract) PRESENTER: Marco Tibullo |
Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear? (abstract) PRESENTER: Omar Pietro Carnevale |
16:40-18:20 Session 3A: Structural VAR Methods I
Location: Room 7, Building 19
16:40 | Estimation of Non-Gaussian SVAR Using Tensor Singular Value Decomposition (abstract) PRESENTER: Dalibor Stevanovic |
17:05 | Bayesian Inference for Heteroskedastic Proxy-SVARs (abstract) PRESENTER: Tommaso Tornese |
17:30 | Generalised External-Instrument SVAR Analysis (abstract) PRESENTER: Giovanni Ricco |
17:55 | A test of exogeneity in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Fanelli |
16:40-18:20 Session 3B: Time Series Theory II
Location: Room 8, Building 19
16:40 | Change-Point Detection in Time Series Using Mixed Integer Programming (abstract) PRESENTER: Anton Skrobotov |
17:05 | A Matrix-valued model with Time-varying Volatility (abstract) PRESENTER: Federico Carlini |
17:30 | Sequential Monte Carlo for Noncausal Processes (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesco Giancaterini |
17:55 | First-order integer-valued autoregressive processes with Generalized Katz innovations (abstract) PRESENTER: Roberto Casarin |
16:40-18:20 Session 3C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics I
Location: Room 10, Building 19
16:40 | Joint extreme Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter (abstract) PRESENTER: Enzo D'Innocenzo |
17:05 | Asset pricing models with downside risk (abstract) PRESENTER: Elisa Ossola |
17:30 | Estimation risk in conditional expectiles (abstract) PRESENTER: Marcelo Fernandes |
17:55 | Dynamic tail risk forecasting: what do realized skewness and kurtosis add? (abstract) PRESENTER: Giampiero M. Gallo |
16:40-18:20 Session 3D: Forecasting: Theory and Empirics I
Location: Room 8, Building 19
16:40 | Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessandra Amendola |
17:05 | The Hedged Random Forest (abstract) PRESENTER: Michael Wolf |
17:30 | The judgmental strategy of professional forecasters (abstract) |
17:55 | Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Data Using Gaussian Processes (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 3E: Applied Microeconomics I
Location: Room 11, Building 19
16:40 | The Local Job Multipliers of Green Re-industrialization (abstract) PRESENTER: Federico Fabio Frattini |
17:05 | Prenatal Sex Detection Technology and Mothers’ Labour Supply in India (abstract) PRESENTER: Chiara Dal Bianco |
17:30 | Work-from-Home Job Creation as a Health-Risk Mitigation Strategy: Firm-Level Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic (abstract) PRESENTER: Agata Maida |
17:55 | The Effect of Temporary Employment on Labour Market Outcomes (abstract) PRESENTER: Enrico Rettore |
16:40-18:20 Session 3F: Macroeconometric Methods II
Location: Room 12, Building 19
16:40 | The Identification Problem for Linear Rational Expectations Models (abstract) PRESENTER: Majid Al Sadoon |
17:05 | Estimating Heterogeneous DSGE Models (abstract) PRESENTER: Stefano Grassi |
17:30 | Causality versus Serial Correlation: an Asymmetric Portmanteau Test (abstract) |
17:55 | The information matrix test for Markov switching autoregressive models with covariate-dependent transition probabilities (abstract) PRESENTER: Dante Amengual |
Friday, May 30th
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
08:50-10:30 Session 4A: Time Series Theory III
Location: Room 7, Building 19
08:50 | Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Markov-switching Observation-driven Models (abstract) |
09:15 | A new way to specify dynamic models (abstract) |
09:40 | Canonical correlation analysis of stochastic trends via functional approximation (abstract) PRESENTER: Paolo Paruolo |
10:05 | On Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 4B: Panel Data Methods I
Location: Room 9, Building 19
08:50 | Specification testing with grouped fixed effects (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesco Valentini |
09:15 | esting the Adequacy of the Fixed Effects Estimator in Panel Data Models with Interactive Effects in a Multidimensional Framework (abstract) PRESENTER: Laura Serlenga |
09:40 | Autoregressive Difference-in-Differences (abstract) PRESENTER: Jack Fosten |
10:05 | Panel VAR Models with Latent Group Structures (abstract) PRESENTER: Marco Barassi |
08:50-10:30 Session 4C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics II
Location: Room 10, Building 19
08:50 | A Unifying Non-Gaussian Approach to Price Discovery (abstract) PRESENTER: Sebastiano Michele Zema |
09:15 | Idiosyncratic and Systematic Volatility Spillovers through the Renewable Energy Financial Markets (abstract) PRESENTER: Giulio Palomba |
09:40 | Robust Inference in Large Panels and Markowitz Portfolios (abstract) PRESENTER: Rosnel Sessinou |
10:05 | Local Edgeworth expansions (abstract) PRESENTER: Roberto Renò |
08:50-10:30 Session 4D: Monetary Policy
Location: Room 11, Building 19
08:50 | Beyond borders, within societies: Inequality and the global transmission of US monetary policy (abstract) |
09:15 | Has Globalization Changed the International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy? (abstract) PRESENTER: Maximilian Boeck |
09:40 | International Government Bond Yields and Monetary Policy: A Necessary Decomposition (abstract) |
10:05 | The Impact of Currency Carry Trade Activity on the Transmission of Monetary Policy (abstract) PRESENTER: Alina Steshkova |
08:50-10:30 Session 4E: Empirical Macroeconomics II
Location: Room 12, Building 19
08:50 | Unlocking Greater Resource Recovery and Productivity in the UK Production Network (abstract) PRESENTER: Aicha Kharazi |
09:15 | The Welfare Costs of Inflation Reconsidered (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Benati |
09:40 | Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap (abstract) PRESENTER: Matteo Luciani |
10:05 | Rethinking short-term real interest rates and term spreads using very long-run data (abstract) PRESENTER: Barbara Rossi |
08:50-10:30 Session 4F: Applied Microeconomics II
Location: Seminar room B, Building 19
08:50 | Lessons from the Past: How Experience Reduces the Impact of Weather Shocks on Ugandan Smallholders (abstract) PRESENTER: Giuseppe Maggio |
09:15 | The Coherence Side of Rationality: Theory and evidence from firm plans (abstract) PRESENTER: Pamela Giustinelli |
09:40 | Heterogeneity of covenants and corporate financial behaviour (abstract) PRESENTER: Maria Elena Bontempi |
10:30-11:00Coffee Break
11:00-12:00 Session 5: Keynote 1: Paola Sapienza (Northwestern Kellogg)
Location: Aula Colletti, Building 13
12:00-13:00 Session 6: Francesca Rossi memory, Carlo Giannini Prize, Labour Prize, Next SIdE Meetings
Location: Aula Colletti, Building 13
13:00-14:30 Session 7: Poster Session II + Lunch
Location: Block B (first floor), Building 19
SILENT ALARMS: Workplace Injuries Under-reporting in Italy (abstract) |
Crowdfunding Success: Human Insights vs Algorithmic Textual Extraction (abstract) PRESENTER: Maria Saveria Mavillonio |
Part-time Work Policies and Older Workers’ Employment: evidence from German Mini-jobs (abstract) |
Care Regimes and Time Allocation: an Event Study Analysis of the US Public Expenditure (abstract) PRESENTER: Caterina Manicardi |
Dealing with the Statistical Representation of DSGE Models (abstract) |
Scholars And The Machine: On Automation And Academic Performance (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessio Garau |
Modeling Common Bubbles: A Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamic Factor Model (abstract) |
Aerospace Growth Spillovers: a Macroeconomic Perspective (abstract) PRESENTER: Aldo Paolillo |
Inflation expectations and wage bargaining: Do women ask differently? (abstract) |
An Economic Evaluation of Exchange Rates Higher Order Moments Timing (abstract) PRESENTER: Mattia Alfero |
14:30-16:10 Session 8A: Structural VAR Methods II
Location: Room 7, Building 19
14:30 | Invalid Proxies and Volatility Changes (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Neri |
14:55 | Identification of one independent shock in structural VARs (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesca Papagni |
15:20 | Honey, we shrunk the IRFs! Using 1-norm regularisation to improve inference in structural VAR models (abstract) PRESENTER: Marco Tedeschi |
15:45 | Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects in High-Frequency Event Studies (abstract) PRESENTER: Alessandro Casini |
14:30-16:10 Session 8B: Panel Data Methods II
Location: Room 9, Building 19
14:30 | Spatial Autoregressions with Endogenous Weights (abstract) PRESENTER: Offer Lieberman |
14:55 | Tests of No Cross-Sectional Error Dependence in Panel Quantile Regressions (abstract) PRESENTER: Matei Demetrescu |
15:20 | Semiparametric Estimation in Panel Data Models with Nonlinear Factor Structure. (abstract) PRESENTER: Christina Maschmann |
15:45 | Long-term health and human capital effects of massive investments in public health and education: Evidence from Cuba (abstract) PRESENTER: Giovanni Mellace |
14:30-16:10 Session 8C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics III
Location: Room 10, Building 19
14:30 | Rethinking Sparsity: Parametric Portfolios and Firm Characteristics (abstract) PRESENTER: Daniele Bianchi |
14:55 | Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity (abstract) PRESENTER: Genaro Sucarrat |
15:20 | Sector Structure in Digital Asset Returns (abstract) PRESENTER: Massimiliano Caporin |
14:30-16:40 Session 8D: Machine Learning Methods II
Location: Room 12, Building 19
14:30 | Sparse Dynamic Bayesian Graphical Models (abstract) PRESENTER: Matteo Iacopini |
14:55 | Sparsity Tests for High-Dimensional Linear Regression Models in Time Series (abstract) PRESENTER: Daniel Gutknecht |
15:20 | A Multiple Random Scan Strategy for Efficient Approximate Inference of Bayesian Latent Space Models (abstract) PRESENTER: Antonio Peruzzi |
15:45 | Model Selection in Multivariate Nonlinear Regression using the Jackknife Von Neumann Estimator (abstract) PRESENTER: Giuseppe Buccheri |
14:30-16:10 Session 8E: Forecasting: Theory and Empirics II
Location: Room 8, Building 19
14:30 | Sign-Oriented Nowcasting of GDP (SONG): a new hybrid approach (abstract) PRESENTER: Davide Zurlo |
14:55 | A semi-parametric dynamic conditional correlation framework for risk forecasting (abstract) PRESENTER: Giuseppe Storti |
15:20 | Nowcasting public finance main aggregates using new data sources (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesca Di Iorio |
16:10-16:40Coffee Break
16:40-18:20 Session 9A: Energy I
Location: Room 11, Building 19
16:40 | Forecasting the Real Price of Carbon: the Role of Macroeconomic Factors (abstract) PRESENTER: Elisabetta Mirto |
17:05 | Daily oil price shocks and their uncertainties (abstract) |
17:30 | Convergence through sustainable development: can EU developing regions make it happen? Firm-level counterfactual evidence via Machine Learning. (abstract) PRESENTER: Federico Fantechi |
17:55 | Compounding Political and Energy Risks: A clustered stochastic COVOL model (abstract) PRESENTER: Monica Billio |
16:40-18:20 Session 9B: Panel Data Methods III
Location: Room 9, Building 19
16:40 | Estimating The Moments and the Distribution of Heterogeneous Marginal Effects Using Panel Data (abstract) |
17:05 | Fixed Effects in the Tails (abstract) PRESENTER: Silvia Sarpietro |
17:30 | Estimation and inference in the presence of neighborhood unobservables (abstract) PRESENTER: Federico Belotti |
17:55 | Endogeneity in conditional production frontier (abstract) PRESENTER: Camilla Mastromarco |
16:40-18:20 Session 9C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics IV
Location: Room 10, Building 19
16:40 | Intraday Stochastic Drift (abstract) PRESENTER: Giorgio Vocalelli |
17:05 | Systematic Illiquidity (abstract) PRESENTER: Paolo Santucci de Magistris |
17:30 | Sieve Managed Portfolios (abstract) PRESENTER: Enrique Sentana |
16:40-18:20 Session 9D: Applied Microeconomics III
Location: Room 11, Building 19
16:40 | Estimating the Effect of Working From Home on Parent’s Division of Childcare and Housework: A New Panel IV Approach (abstract) |
17:05 | "One Person, One Vote": the Effect of Direct Elections on Political DIscourse (abstract) PRESENTER: Adriano Amati |
17:30 | Measuring daily tourism mobility spillover at the intra-metropolis level with mobile positioning data (abstract) PRESENTER: Giulia Carallo |
17:55 | Settlers and Seekers: Immigrant Proximity and Voter Polarisation (abstract) PRESENTER: Giovanni Prarolo |
16:40-18:20 Session 9E: Empirical Macroeconomics III
Location: Seminar room B, Building 19
16:40 | The Dismal Cross: Public Debt and Productivity in Italy during the Great Recession (abstract) PRESENTER: Aristotelis Margaris |
17:05 | Disentangling the drivers of exuberant house prices (abstract) PRESENTER: Clemente Pinilla-Torremocha |
17:30 | Delayed Overshooting Puzzle: Does Systematic Monetary Policy Matter? (abstract) PRESENTER: Giovanni Primativo |
17:55 | Regional resilience in Italy: an analysis in the time-frequency domain (abstract) PRESENTER: Iolanda Lo Cascio |
Saturday, May 31st
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
08:30-10:10 Session 10A: Energy II
Location: Room 12, Building 19
08:30 | Forecasting high-dimensional time series with multiple seasonalities: An application to electricty demand (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca Trapin |
08:55 | Errors in Temperature Forecasts and Energy Prices (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesco Simone Lucidi |
09:20 | Geopolitical Risk and Inflation: The Role of Energy Markets (abstract) |
09:45 | A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area (abstract) PRESENTER: Mario Porqueddu |
08:30-10:10 Session 10B: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics V
Location: Room 7, Building 19
08:30 | Detecting the Predictive Power of Imperfect Predictors with Smoothly Varying Components (abstract) PRESENTER: Mehdi Hosseinkouchack |
08:55 | Illiquidity at Risk (abstract) PRESENTER: Demetrio Lacava |
09:20 | Testing for Explosiveness in Financial Asset Prices using High-Frequency Volatility: with Application to Cryptocurrency Data (abstract) PRESENTER: Peter Boswijk |
08:30-10:10 Session 10C: Empirical Macroeconomics IV
Location: Room 8, Building 19
08:30 | A Survey-Based Measure of Asymmetric Macroeconomic Risk in the Euro Area (abstract) PRESENTER: Sara Boni |
08:55 | Heterogeneous economic growth vulnerability across Euro Area countries (abstract) PRESENTER: Claudio Lissona |
09:20 | Monitoring Joint Tail Risks: An Application to Growth and Inflation (abstract) PRESENTER: Jordi Llorens-Terrazas |
08:30-10:10 Session 10D: Factor Models I
Location: Room 9, Building 19
08:30 | VAR models with an index structure: A survey with new results (abstract) |
08:55 | A Distributed Lag Approach to the Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) (abstract) |
09:20 | Cross-Sectional Exchangeability and Rate-Weak Factors (abstract) |
08:30-10:10 Session 10E: Climate Econometrics I
Location: Room 10, Building 19
08:30 | Ensuring the Security of the Clean Energy Transition: Examining the Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Price of Critical Minerals (abstract) PRESENTER: Jamel Saadaoui |
08:55 | Look up and ahead: how climate scenarios affect European sovereign risk (abstract) PRESENTER: Luca De Angelis |
09:20 | Flood risk and credit market conditions for Italian SMEs (abstract) PRESENTER: Fabio Parla |
10:10-11:10 Session 11: Keynote 2: Domenico Giannone (International Monetary Fund)
Location: Aula Magna Li Donni, Building 13
11:10-11:40Coffee Break
11:40-13:20 Session 12A: Econometric Methods
Location: Room 7, Building 19
11:40 | AIC for many-regressor heteroskedastic regressions (abstract) |
12:05 | Kendall and Spearman Rank Correlations for Skew-Elliptical Copulas (abstract) |
12:30 | Bootstrap Diagnostic tests (abstract) PRESENTER: Giuseppe Cavaliere |
12:55 | Rational Expectations Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (abstract) |
11:40-13:20 Session 12B: Business Cycle Fluctuations
Location: Room 8, Building 19
11:40 | Two Main Business Cycle Shocks are Better than One (abstract) |
12:05 | Geopolitical risk shocks: When size matters (abstract) PRESENTER: Davide Brignone |
12:30 | Measuring the Effects of Aggregate Shocks on Unit-Level Outcomes and Their Distribution (abstract) PRESENTER: Stephanie Ettmeier |
12:55 | Non-Gaussian Business Cycles Anatomy (abstract) PRESENTER: Michele Piffer |
11:40-13:20 Session 12C: Energy III
Location: Room 9, Building 19
11:40 | Risky Oil: It’s All in the Tails (abstract) PRESENTER: Christiane Baumeister |
12:05 | Integration of energy electricity markets in a reverse mixed-frequency panel (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Viselli |
12:30 | Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time (abstract) PRESENTER: Francesco Ravazzolo |
11:40-13:20 Session 12D: Factor Models II
Location: Room 10, Building 19
11:40 | A rotated Dynamic Factor Model for the yield curve: squeezing out information when it matters (abstract) PRESENTER: Chiara Casoli |
12:05 | From rotational to scalar invariance: Enhancing identifiability in score-driven factor models (abstract) PRESENTER: Emilija Dzuverovic |
12:30 | Inference in matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends and multifactor error structure (abstract) PRESENTER: Greta Goracci |
11:40-13:20 Session 12E: Climate Econometrics II
Location: Room 11, Building 19
11:40 | Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks across U.S. States (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Bastianin |
12:05 | Emissions intensity dynamics: the role of macro and industry-specific shocks (abstract) PRESENTER: Fulvia Marotta |
12:30 | A Tale of Commodities and Climate-driven Disasters (abstract) |
12:55 | Spectral climate risk (abstract) PRESENTER: Andrea Cipollini |