ICEEE 2025 PALERMO: ELEVENTH ITALIAN CONGRESS OF ECONOMETRICS AND EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS
PROGRAM

Days: Thursday, May 29th Friday, May 30th Saturday, May 31st

Thursday, May 29th

View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview

14:00-15:40 Session 1A: Empirical Macroeconomics I
14:00
Large datasets for the Euro Area and its member countries and the dynamic effects of the common monetary policy (abstract)
PRESENTER: Lorenzo Tonni
14:25
Piecing the puzzle: real exchange rates and long-run fundamentals (abstract)
14:50
Online Monitoring of Policy Optimality (abstract)
15:15
Cast out the pure? Inflation and relative prices on both sides of the Atlantic (abstract)
PRESENTER: Chiara Osbat
14:00-15:40 Session 1B: Cointegration
14:00
Inference on the cointegration and the attractor spaces via functional approximation (abstract)
PRESENTER: Massimo Franchi
14:25
Common Trends and Long-Run Identification in Nonlinear Structural VARs (abstract)
PRESENTER: James Duffy
14:50
Robust Multivariate Observation-Driven Filtering for a Common Stochastic Trend: Theory and Application (abstract)
15:15
Integrated Modified OLS Estimation and Fixed-b Inference for Cointegrating Multivariate Polynomial Regressions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Martin Wagner
14:00-15:40 Session 1C: Microeconometric Methods
14:00
Identifying Causal Effects of Discrete, Ordered and Continuous Treatments using Multiple Instrumental Variables (abstract)
14:25
A Local Differencing Test for the Credibility of Selection-on-Observables (abstract)
14:50
A Test for Bayesian-Nash Behavior in Binary Games with Incomplete Information and Correlated Types (abstract)
PRESENTER: Elia Lapenta
14:00-15:40 Session 1D: Time Series Theory I
14:00
Quantile Granger Causality in the Presence of Instability (abstract)
PRESENTER: Alexander Mayer
14:25
Pseudo-variance quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of semi-parametric time series models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mirko Armillotta
14:50
Inference on breaks in weak location time series models with quasi-Fisher scores (abstract)
14:00-15:40 Session 1E: Machine Learning Methods I
14:00
Probabilistic Partial Least Squares (abstract)
PRESENTER: Miguel Herculano
14:25
Locally Robust Estimation of the Intergenerational Elasticity (abstract)
14:50
Double Machine Learning for Static Panel Data with Instrumental Variables: New Method and Applications (abstract)
14:00-15:40 Session 1F: Macroeconometric Methods I
14:00
Inference with Local Projections (abstract)
14:25
Functional Linear Projection and Impulse Response Analysis (abstract)
PRESENTER: Won-Ki Seo
14:50
Nonparametric Local Projections (abstract)
PRESENTER: Elena Pesavento
15:40-16:40Coffee Break
15:40-16:40 Session 2: Poster Session I
Counterfactual and Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Instrumented Principal Component Analysis (abstract)
Fiscal Shocks and the Surge of Inflation (abstract)
Testing Conditional Moment Restrictions: A Partitioning Approach (abstract)
It is All About Demand and Supply: a Dualistic View of the Euro Area Business Cycle (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marco Mazzali
Improved Inference for Nonparametric Regression and Regression-Discontinuity Designs (abstract)
PRESENTER: Edoardo Zanelli
Partially Identified Rankings from Pairwise Interactions} (abstract)
PRESENTER: Federico Crippa
Distributional Difference-in-Differences with Multiple Time Periods (abstract)
Climate and Macroeconomic Variability (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marco Tibullo
Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear? (abstract)
16:40-18:20 Session 3A: Structural VAR Methods I
16:40
Estimation of Non-Gaussian SVAR Using Tensor Singular Value Decomposition (abstract)
17:05
Bayesian Inference for Heteroskedastic Proxy-SVARs (abstract)
PRESENTER: Tommaso Tornese
17:30
Generalised External-Instrument SVAR Analysis (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giovanni Ricco
17:55
A test of exogeneity in Structural Vector Autoregressions with external instruments (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Fanelli
16:40-18:20 Session 3B: Time Series Theory II
16:40
Change-Point Detection in Time Series Using Mixed Integer Programming (abstract)
PRESENTER: Anton Skrobotov
17:05
A Matrix-valued model with Time-varying Volatility (abstract)
PRESENTER: Federico Carlini
17:30
Sequential Monte Carlo for Noncausal Processes (abstract)
17:55
First-order integer-valued autoregressive processes with Generalized Katz innovations (abstract)
PRESENTER: Roberto Casarin
16:40-18:20 Session 3C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics I
16:40
Joint extreme Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter (abstract)
PRESENTER: Enzo D'Innocenzo
17:05
Asset pricing models with downside risk (abstract)
PRESENTER: Elisa Ossola
17:30
Estimation risk in conditional expectiles (abstract)
17:55
Dynamic tail risk forecasting: what do realized skewness and kurtosis add? (abstract)
16:40-18:20 Session 3D: Forecasting: Theory and Empirics I
16:40
Adaptive combinations of tail-risk forecasts (abstract)
17:05
The Hedged Random Forest (abstract)
PRESENTER: Michael Wolf
17:30
The judgmental strategy of professional forecasters (abstract)
17:55
Nowcasting with Mixed Frequency Data Using Gaussian Processes (abstract)
16:40-18:20 Session 3E: Applied Microeconomics I
16:40
The Local Job Multipliers of Green Re-industrialization (abstract)
17:05
Prenatal Sex Detection Technology and Mothers’ Labour Supply in India (abstract)
17:30
Work-from-Home Job Creation as a Health-Risk Mitigation Strategy: Firm-Level Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic (abstract)
PRESENTER: Agata Maida
17:55
The Effect of Temporary Employment on Labour Market Outcomes (abstract)
PRESENTER: Enrico Rettore
16:40-18:20 Session 3F: Macroeconometric Methods II
16:40
The Identification Problem for Linear Rational Expectations Models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Majid Al Sadoon
17:05
Estimating Heterogeneous DSGE Models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Stefano Grassi
17:30
Causality versus Serial Correlation: an Asymmetric Portmanteau Test (abstract)
17:55
The information matrix test for Markov switching autoregressive models with covariate-dependent transition probabilities (abstract)
PRESENTER: Dante Amengual
Friday, May 30th

View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview

08:50-10:30 Session 4A: Time Series Theory III
08:50
Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Markov-switching Observation-driven Models (abstract)
09:15
A new way to specify dynamic models (abstract)
09:40
Canonical correlation analysis of stochastic trends via functional approximation (abstract)
PRESENTER: Paolo Paruolo
10:05
On Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models (abstract)
08:50-10:30 Session 4B: Panel Data Methods I
08:50
Specification testing with grouped fixed effects (abstract)
09:15
esting the Adequacy of the Fixed Effects Estimator in Panel Data Models with Interactive Effects in a Multidimensional Framework (abstract)
PRESENTER: Laura Serlenga
09:40
Autoregressive Difference-in-Differences (abstract)
PRESENTER: Jack Fosten
10:05
Panel VAR Models with Latent Group Structures (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marco Barassi
08:50-10:30 Session 4C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics II
08:50
A Unifying Non-Gaussian Approach to Price Discovery (abstract)
09:15
Idiosyncratic and Systematic Volatility Spillovers through the Renewable Energy Financial Markets (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giulio Palomba
09:40
Robust Inference in Large Panels and Markowitz Portfolios (abstract)
PRESENTER: Rosnel Sessinou
10:05
Local Edgeworth expansions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Roberto Renò
08:50-10:30 Session 4D: Monetary Policy
08:50
Beyond borders, within societies: Inequality and the global transmission of US monetary policy (abstract)
09:15
Has Globalization Changed the International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy? (abstract)
PRESENTER: Maximilian Boeck
09:40
International Government Bond Yields and Monetary Policy: A Necessary Decomposition (abstract)
10:05
The Impact of Currency Carry Trade Activity on the Transmission of Monetary Policy (abstract)
PRESENTER: Alina Steshkova
08:50-10:30 Session 4E: Empirical Macroeconomics II
08:50
Unlocking Greater Resource Recovery and Productivity in the UK Production Network (abstract)
PRESENTER: Aicha Kharazi
09:15
The Welfare Costs of Inflation Reconsidered (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Benati
09:40
Measuring the Euro Area Output Gap (abstract)
PRESENTER: Matteo Luciani
10:05
Rethinking short-term real interest rates and term spreads using very long-run data (abstract)
PRESENTER: Barbara Rossi
08:50-10:30 Session 4F: Applied Microeconomics II
08:50
Lessons from the Past: How Experience Reduces the Impact of Weather Shocks on Ugandan Smallholders (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giuseppe Maggio
09:15
The Coherence Side of Rationality: Theory and evidence from firm plans (abstract)
09:40
Heterogeneity of covenants and corporate financial behaviour (abstract)
10:30-11:00Coffee Break
13:00-14:30 Session 7: Poster Session II + Lunch
SILENT ALARMS: Workplace Injuries Under-reporting in Italy (abstract)
Crowdfunding Success: Human Insights vs Algorithmic Textual Extraction (abstract)
Part-time Work Policies and Older Workers’ Employment: evidence from German Mini-jobs (abstract)
Care Regimes and Time Allocation: an Event Study Analysis of the US Public Expenditure (abstract)
Dealing with the Statistical Representation of DSGE Models (abstract)
Scholars And The Machine: On Automation And Academic Performance (abstract)
PRESENTER: Alessio Garau
Modeling Common Bubbles: A Mixed Causal Non-Causal Dynamic Factor Model (abstract)
Aerospace Growth Spillovers: a Macroeconomic Perspective (abstract)
PRESENTER: Aldo Paolillo
Inflation expectations and wage bargaining: Do women ask differently? (abstract)
An Economic Evaluation of Exchange Rates Higher Order Moments Timing (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mattia Alfero
14:30-16:10 Session 8A: Structural VAR Methods II
14:30
Invalid Proxies and Volatility Changes (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Neri
14:55
Identification of one independent shock in structural VARs (abstract)
15:20
Honey, we shrunk the IRFs! Using 1-norm regularisation to improve inference in structural VAR models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Marco Tedeschi
15:45
Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects in High-Frequency Event Studies (abstract)
14:30-16:10 Session 8B: Panel Data Methods II
14:30
Spatial Autoregressions with Endogenous Weights (abstract)
PRESENTER: Offer Lieberman
14:55
Tests of No Cross-Sectional Error Dependence in Panel Quantile Regressions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Matei Demetrescu
15:20
Semiparametric Estimation in Panel Data Models with Nonlinear Factor Structure. (abstract)
15:45
Long-term health and human capital effects of massive investments in public health and education: Evidence from Cuba (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giovanni Mellace
14:30-16:10 Session 8C: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics III
14:30
Rethinking Sparsity: Parametric Portfolios and Firm Characteristics (abstract)
PRESENTER: Daniele Bianchi
14:55
Testing the zero-process of intraday financial returns for non-stationary periodicity (abstract)
PRESENTER: Genaro Sucarrat
15:20
Sector Structure in Digital Asset Returns (abstract)
14:30-16:40 Session 8D: Machine Learning Methods II
14:30
Sparse Dynamic Bayesian Graphical Models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Matteo Iacopini
14:55
Sparsity Tests for High-Dimensional Linear Regression Models in Time Series (abstract)
PRESENTER: Daniel Gutknecht
15:20
A Multiple Random Scan Strategy for Efficient Approximate Inference of Bayesian Latent Space Models (abstract)
PRESENTER: Antonio Peruzzi
15:45
Model Selection in Multivariate Nonlinear Regression using the Jackknife Von Neumann Estimator (abstract)
14:30-16:10 Session 8E: Forecasting: Theory and Empirics II
14:30
Sign-Oriented Nowcasting of GDP (SONG): a new hybrid approach (abstract)
PRESENTER: Davide Zurlo
14:55
A semi-parametric dynamic conditional correlation framework for risk forecasting (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giuseppe Storti
15:20
Nowcasting public finance main aggregates using new data sources (abstract)
16:10-16:40Coffee Break
16:40-18:20 Session 9A: Energy I
16:40
Forecasting the Real Price of Carbon: the Role of Macroeconomic Factors (abstract)
PRESENTER: Elisabetta Mirto
17:05
Daily oil price shocks and their uncertainties (abstract)
17:30
Convergence through sustainable development: can EU developing regions make it happen? Firm-level counterfactual evidence via Machine Learning. (abstract)
17:55
Compounding Political and Energy Risks: A clustered stochastic COVOL model (abstract)
PRESENTER: Monica Billio
16:40-18:20 Session 9B: Panel Data Methods III
16:40
Estimating The Moments and the Distribution of Heterogeneous Marginal Effects Using Panel Data (abstract)
17:05
Fixed Effects in the Tails (abstract)
PRESENTER: Silvia Sarpietro
17:30
Estimation and inference in the presence of neighborhood unobservables (abstract)
PRESENTER: Federico Belotti
17:55
Endogeneity in conditional production frontier (abstract)
16:40-18:20 Session 9D: Applied Microeconomics III
16:40
Estimating the Effect of Working From Home on Parent’s Division of Childcare and Housework: A New Panel IV Approach (abstract)
17:05
"One Person, One Vote": the Effect of Direct Elections on Political DIscourse (abstract)
PRESENTER: Adriano Amati
17:30
Measuring daily tourism mobility spillover at the intra-metropolis level with mobile positioning data (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giulia Carallo
17:55
Settlers and Seekers: Immigrant Proximity and Voter Polarisation (abstract)
PRESENTER: Giovanni Prarolo
16:40-18:20 Session 9E: Empirical Macroeconomics III
16:40
The Dismal Cross: Public Debt and Productivity in Italy during the Great Recession (abstract)
17:05
Disentangling the drivers of exuberant house prices (abstract)
17:30
Delayed Overshooting Puzzle: Does Systematic Monetary Policy Matter? (abstract)
17:55
Regional resilience in Italy: an analysis in the time-frequency domain (abstract)
Saturday, May 31st

View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview

08:30-10:10 Session 10A: Energy II
08:30
Forecasting high-dimensional time series with multiple seasonalities: An application to electricty demand (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca Trapin
08:55
Errors in Temperature Forecasts and Energy Prices (abstract)
09:20
Geopolitical Risk and Inflation: The Role of Energy Markets (abstract)
09:45
A new model to forecast energy inflation in the euro area (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mario Porqueddu
08:30-10:10 Session 10B: Financial Econometrics: Theory and Empirics V
08:30
Detecting the Predictive Power of Imperfect Predictors with Smoothly Varying Components (abstract)
08:55
Illiquidity at Risk (abstract)
PRESENTER: Demetrio Lacava
09:20
Testing for Explosiveness in Financial Asset Prices using High-Frequency Volatility: with Application to Cryptocurrency Data (abstract)
PRESENTER: Peter Boswijk
08:30-10:10 Session 10C: Empirical Macroeconomics IV
08:30
A Survey-Based Measure of Asymmetric Macroeconomic Risk in the Euro Area (abstract)
PRESENTER: Sara Boni
08:55
Heterogeneous economic growth vulnerability across Euro Area countries (abstract)
PRESENTER: Claudio Lissona
09:20
Monitoring Joint Tail Risks: An Application to Growth and Inflation (abstract)
08:30-10:10 Session 10D: Factor Models I
08:30
VAR models with an index structure: A survey with new results (abstract)
08:55
A Distributed Lag Approach to the Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) (abstract)
09:20
Cross-Sectional Exchangeability and Rate-Weak Factors (abstract)
08:30-10:10 Session 10E: Climate Econometrics I
08:30
Ensuring the Security of the Clean Energy Transition: Examining the Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Price of Critical Minerals (abstract)
PRESENTER: Jamel Saadaoui
08:55
Look up and ahead: how climate scenarios affect European sovereign risk (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luca De Angelis
09:20
Flood risk and credit market conditions for Italian SMEs (abstract)
PRESENTER: Fabio Parla
11:10-11:40Coffee Break
11:40-13:20 Session 12A: Econometric Methods
11:40
AIC for many-regressor heteroskedastic regressions (abstract)
12:05
Kendall and Spearman Rank Correlations for Skew-Elliptical Copulas (abstract)
12:30
Bootstrap Diagnostic tests (abstract)
12:55
Rational Expectations Nonparametric Empirical Bayes (abstract)
11:40-13:20 Session 12B: Business Cycle Fluctuations
11:40
Two Main Business Cycle Shocks are Better than One (abstract)
12:05
Geopolitical risk shocks: When size matters (abstract)
PRESENTER: Davide Brignone
12:30
Measuring the Effects of Aggregate Shocks on Unit-Level Outcomes and Their Distribution (abstract)
12:55
Non-Gaussian Business Cycles Anatomy (abstract)
PRESENTER: Michele Piffer
11:40-13:20 Session 12C: Energy III
11:40
Risky Oil: It’s All in the Tails (abstract)
12:05
Integration of energy electricity markets in a reverse mixed-frequency panel (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Viselli
12:30
Forecasting Natural Gas Prices in Real Time (abstract)
11:40-13:20 Session 12D: Factor Models II
11:40
A rotated Dynamic Factor Model for the yield curve: squeezing out information when it matters (abstract)
PRESENTER: Chiara Casoli
12:05
From rotational to scalar invariance: Enhancing identifiability in score-driven factor models (abstract)
12:30
Inference in matrix-valued time series with common stochastic trends and multifactor error structure (abstract)
PRESENTER: Greta Goracci
11:40-13:20 Session 12E: Climate Econometrics II
11:40
Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks across U.S. States (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Bastianin
12:05
Emissions intensity dynamics: the role of macro and industry-specific shocks (abstract)
PRESENTER: Fulvia Marotta
12:30
A Tale of Commodities and Climate-driven Disasters (abstract)
12:55
Spectral climate risk (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrea Cipollini