2024-ATR: AFRICAN TRANSPORT RESEARCH CONFERENCE 2024
PROGRAM FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6TH
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08:00-08:30Welcome and Refreshments
10:00-10:30Refreshments
10:30-13:00 Session 5A: Liveability and behaviour change
10:30
Lessons in Traffic: Nairobi's School Term Congestion and Equity Challenges
PRESENTER: Constant Cap

ABSTRACT. On January 2nd, 2019 at 8am, Kenyatta Ave. between Waberra St. and Muindi Mbingu St. in downtown Nairobi ground to a halt, with speeds crawling 14.8 kilometers per hour (kph) (Uber, 2023). The reason? It was the first day of school in this rapidly growing and thriving city. The specific needs of children – and the impacts of road design, traffic, and congestion on them – tend to be poorly addressed in transport planning, including in cities like Nairobi (Klopp, 2016). While a growing body of research on the geography of education in African cities has delved into aspects of school travel, equity, and their effects on learning (De Kadt, 2014, 2019; Macharia et al., 2023), the particular influence of school sessions, which induces unique trip dynamics, remains largely unexplored. This paper aims to address this gap through a data-driven analysis of traffic effects when schools are in session, compared to holidays in Nairobi. We leverage real-time road speed information from the publicly available Uber Movement data (Uber, 2023) to model congestion spatially and temporally. Our objective is to assess the location and intensity of congestion, as well as its distribution across different road types. Through this analysis, we aim to gain deeper insights into the potential equity and economic impacts of congestion, which may be closely connected to inadequate land use and planning regarding children’s education and school travel.

10:55
Sexual Violence and Harassment in Lagos Public Transport
PRESENTER: Adewale Alade

ABSTRACT. Everyday, women of different age groups are exposed to varying degrees of violence and harassment in public transport but there exist knowledge gaps on this subject, particularly in the global south. This paper explores the nature and scale of sexual violence and harassment in Lagos public transport, the effects on women’s mobility and government’s policy response. The study adopted mixed methods including use of structured questionnaire purposively administered on female passengers and the use of semi-structured interviews with some women across public and private sectors. Data obtained showed that sexual harassment is a widespread phenomenon in Lagos public transport. Deliberate contact, groping, offensive sexual comments and gestures occurring onboard and at bus stops, and mostly in the night hours are the major forms of sexual harassment. Women’s common reactions include shouting to discourage the offender; change of sitting position or disembarking from the vehicle while some are tolerant to avoid shaming. Coping strategies of many women include acquisition of defensive gadget such as pepper spray, conscious choice of sitting position in the vehicle and avoiding to travel at certain periods of the day. Furthermore, under-reporting of harassment is common in Lagos while government’s policy response is very discouraging. The study concludes that sexual harassment in public transport is critical in Lagos but rarely mentioned by the victims for fear of profiling. Gender inclusive policies and successful global best practices aimed at preventing and reducing sexual violence and harassment in public transport are recommended.

11:20
How Do Various Population Groups Experience Personal Safety: the Case of Cape Town
PRESENTER: Nkhensani Biko

ABSTRACT. This study looks at how historically politicised resource allocation and spatial design have restricted the freedom of movement for various South African populations. Differential travel behaviours, infrastructure, and travel convenience are examined among racial groups, income levels, and genders. The underdeveloped transportation infrastructure exacerbates security and safety issues, impacting many facets of traveller’s well-being. Although the terms "safety" and "security" are sometimes used synonymously, this study emphasises their unique social and transportation aspects. Women, in particular, have special security concerns, since they frequently experience verbal and sexual harassment on public transportation, which reduces their ability and/or willingness to travel. The study's primary methodology for gathering various opinions, thoughts, and experiences from a big and geographically dispersed participant is surveys. By illuminating these concerns through the use of surveys, the paper underscores the significance of capturing actual users' perceptions. This approach is crucial in devising transport systems that prioritise user safety and security, ultimately aiming to enhance travel experiences and ensure equitable access for all South Africans.

11:45
Accessibility Practices and Experiences in Cities in Transition to Sustainable Mobility: Maputo and Freetown Through a Lens of Disadvantage

ABSTRACT. This paper deconstructs everyday practices, attitudes, and experiences from a perspective of accessibility and social and transport (dis)advantage in two capital cities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)—Maputo, Mozambique and Freetown, Sierra Leone. The paper proposes a novel framework that interprets social and transport (dis)advantage conditions as critical drivers of practices and behaviours and the resulting (in)accessibility that circumscribes individuals’ lived experiences. Building on its framework, the paper presents qualitative evidence from eight neighbourhoods across Maputo and Freetown on the role of the four determinants of accessibility (i.e., land-use structure, transport and communication, temporal dimension, and individual and household characteristics) in the definition of practices, attitudes, and experiences across populations facing different degrees of social and transport (dis)advantage. This paper is grounded on the in-depth understanding of accessibility using qualitative methods as a counterpoint to predominant quantitative and spatial approaches, filling critical data gaps in the cities across SSA. The findings reveal a deep-seated aspiration for vehicle ownership, tempered by the urgency of other immediate material needs, as well as the dynamic nature of travel behaviour due to changing conditions during the day and throughout the year. The findings also indicate informality plays a significant role in enabling access to critical opportunities and the need to strengthen trust in popular transport systems, which are highly embedded in community structures. Such findings can inform policy and decision-making regarding transport infrastructure investment, regulation, and policy in cities in other regions marked by institutional and financial constraints for policy development.

12:10
The Potential for Carpooling and Accompanying Reductions in Congestion Levels – the Case of Cape Town, South Africa
PRESENTER: Sharifa Nalubega

ABSTRACT. Mixed traffic consists of different transport systems such as private, public and freight vehicles. The high volume of private cars on the road network worsens traffic congestion. Travel Demand Management (TDM) strategies have been adopted to reduce the levels of congestion in different cities. Carpooling is among the TDM measures that can cause a significant reduction in the number of vehicles on the road network. The objective of this study was to evaluate the possibility for carpooling using secondary data from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). This study adopted a quantitative methodological approach to determine the likelihood of carpooling venture to reduce the number of vehicles on the road network. Using Cape Town municipality as the case study, the study through purposive sampling extracted the number of commuters possessing private vehicles for travelling to workplaces and analysed their characteristics and behaviours. This enabled to establish quantitatively through an elimination process the potential for carpooling to the Central Business District (CBD) of Cape Town. The analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel for calculations and QGIS for data visualisation. The study revealed that 2.8% of car-based commuter trips travelling from all the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) to the CBD can essentially practice carpooling with fellow drivers according to their travel duration, regular work-time schedules, attitudes, and socio-demographic aspects. It was, therefore, concluded that if the number of work-related car drivers to the CBD can only increase their occupancy to 2 persons, a significant reduction of congestion levels will be experienced. This paper recommends that car drivers from a distant place could utilise the parking space on the property of another car driver living nearer to the workplace. Also, other incentives from the responsible entities like park and ride areas for carpooling and High Vehicle Occupancy (HOV) lanes on all roads to the CBD.

12:35
Towards an Understanding of Educational Migration in Africa

ABSTRACT. Educational migration in Africa is a complex topic requiring an in-depth understanding of migration history and theory. The African continent is the product of centuries and millennia of change, with socio-economic and political conditions varying significantly across the 53 member states of the African Union (AU). Tertiary educational facilities are ranked annually in polls and the University of Cape Town (UCT) consistently ranks highest in Africa across multiple polls. The foreign student therefore places emphasis on the prestige of a high-ranking university, paving the way for a career on return to the graduate’s country of origin. The university is a testing ground and an incubator where foreign students can experience migration on a temporary basis. The research investigates UCT administrative and alumni data bases attempting to establish patterns and trends in educational migration in Africa. The outcomes of educational migration are heuristically threefold; namely, 1) circular migration, 2) naturalisation in the host country and 3) global dispersion. This paper examines all three outcomes across a range of countries in Africa to make sense of educational migration and gain a better understanding of this phenomena, which has significant benefits for individual actors, countries of origin, host countries and the global economy. The findings of the study reveal that 58% of the UCT alumni return to their country of origin. The findings have shown that 33% of alumni remained in the host country and assimilated into the broader South African social context paving the way for naturalisation. A smaller number of foreign students representing approximately 9% dispersed globally.

10:30-13:00 Session 5B: Two-wheeling
10:30
‘If You Don't Love It, You'Re Not Going to Love It’: Exploring the Motivations of Car-Owning Commuter Cyclists in Cape Town
PRESENTER: Gail Jennings

ABSTRACT. The research presented in this paper examines why car-owning middle- to high-income adults in Cape Town cycle as a mode of transport (utility cycling), what motivates them to sustain or shift their cycling practice along their adult life, and how these motivations compare with those championed by the bicycle advocacy discourse in Cape Town. The research is focused on the ‘choice’, or ‘intentional’, user : the individual who rides a bicycle as transport even though they own or have access to a car. Car drivers are a target of the City of Cape Town’s bicycle policy, which aims to grow cycling (displacing private car travel) through behavioural interventions in a bid to mitigate traffic congestion and the city’s carbon emissions profile. This paper explores this under-researched group of transport users in Cape Town who are key to the City achieving its energy, carbon, and congestion goals, to develop more effective approaches to shifting behaviour within this difficult-to-change cohort. Primary data was collected through non-random, purposive sampling, by means of in-depth interviews with 36 participants who do cycle as transport. Interviews were captured as mobility biographies, and segmented for both thematic and narrative analysis according to transitions in cycling behaviour. Secondary data of public advocacy discourse includes media releases, speeches, policy documents, and media texts that offer arguments as to why individuals should cycle for transport, or set out the benefits of bicycle transport (for individuals and as a public good). The paper focuses on one key motivation, that of emotional wellbeing, which is variously framed as joy, time meaningfully spent, fun, or happiness. Wellbeing emerges as a key motivator for individuals to continue a utility cycling practice that might have started for other reasons, yet is rarely part of the advocacy discourse. Advocacy’s disinterest in joy may have its origins both in the seriousness of South Africa’s inequitable access to mobility, and the struggle to have cycling legitimized as a transport mode. This motivation aligns with cycling motivations among similar cohorts outside South Africa.

 

10:55
Exploring the Landscape Within Which to Establish Cycling as a Prominent Mode
PRESENTER: Gerhard Hitge

ABSTRACT. The benefits of cycling is wide-ranging and substantial and is well documented in the academic literature, global guideline documents and many government policies and strategies. A large body of knowledge exists about the impact different interventions have to increase the propensity to cycle among a community, or its different user groups. Despite this, many Starter Cycling Cities (SCC) that invest time and resources to grow cycling, fail to achieve meaningful, if any, progress towards their goal of establishing cycling as a prominent mode of transport. The vast array of interventions and the effect these have to remove barriers and increase the propensity to cycle is also well documented. What is not often described in the literature is a holistic description of what the cycling environment would look like, when the goal of cycling is achieved. This paper describes the cycling environment that supports a healthy cycling mode share in terms of a set of four fundamental and six supportive components. It argues that any SCC should first estimate the potential for cycling in their city and then disaggregate their goal according to specific user groups within the regions where these target market segments operate. An assessment of the fundamental components will reveal the state of readiness of each and identify stakeholders that must participate to improve it. Interventions can then be coordinated for all components to build towards the desired outcomes.

11:20
A Cycling Route Directness Tool for Suburbs in Cape Town: an Assessment of Connectivity of Cape Town's Bicycle Lane Network
PRESENTER: Phano Liphoto

ABSTRACT. Cycling has increased in popularity as an environmentally friendly and healthy form of transportation, and cities all over the world are investing in cycling infrastructure to encourage safe and efficient cycling. Cycling has witnessed a significant increase in popularity as a sustainable method of transportation in Cape Town, known for its natural beauty and expanding urbanization. Various cycling policies have been developed by the city from the end of the 20th century to date, and the city is actively extending its cycling lane network to improve pedalling safety and convenience. However, the discontinuity of these cycle paths continues to be a major problem, among other issues, harming both the entire riding experience and road safety. This research assesses Cape Town's cycle lane network to determine the extent of continuity or discontinuity of the infrastructure. Inevitably assess the connectivity, accessibility, and quality of the cycling network using Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping and data analysis. The collected data will be evaluated to determine how cycling lanes produce a continuous network, allowing cyclists to travel across the city comfortably and securely.

11:45
Non-Motorised Transport Infrastructure Provision, Policies and Strategies in Secondary Urban African Towns: the Case of Namibia
PRESENTER: Kevin Chomore

ABSTRACT. Road infrastructure planning in urban secondary Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) towns is mostly focused on accommodating uninterrupted flow of motorised transport. This phenomenon combined with an increasing number of Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) users (rapid urbanisation), especially pedestrians, has led to unacceptable levels of road safety issues for NMT users in secondary urban towns in SSA. This study addressed to policy- and decision-makers, discourses non-motorised transport challenges, gaps and opportunities for addressing and improving NMT conditions in the fast-changing landscape of secondary SSA towns, through conducted NMT infrastructure audit assessments, policy and strategy reviews and qualitative engagements with key stakeholders in Oshakati town. The study also proposes a set of strategies and contextual targets aimed at addressing and improving access and mobility for NMT users in Oshakati town.

12:10
Unveiling the Journey: Exploring Active Mobility User Needs and Preferences in Sub-Saharan Africa: a Focus on Ethiopia

ABSTRACT. Africa experiences the highest urbanization rate globally, despite being one of the least urbanized regions. This places immense strain on transportation systems, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Pedestrian and cyclist infrastructure and safety remain largely overlooked in many African cities, despite a prevalent reliance on walking and cycling. The Collaborative Project on Active Mobility in Africa (CAMA) aims to address these issues in three sub-Saharan African countries by gathering data on users` mobility behaviors, proposing tailor made solutions, and conducting real-life experiments. This paper focuses on the CAMA project's findings in Ethiopia. The study utilized mixed research methods encompassing key informant interviews, qualitative and quantitative surveys. The research revealed that walking is the primary mode of transportation for 66% of respondents, with cycling accounting for 20%. These choices are primarily influenced by work commutes and cultural or religious practices. Factors like efficiency, safety, and affordability heavily influence their mode preferences. Though respondents acknowledge the economic and environmental benefits of active mobility, awareness of the associated health benefits is lacking. Safety concerns and inadequate infrastructure are key obstacles to walking and cycling in Mekelle city. Participants stressed the significance of law enforcement and traffic management for walking, as well as improvements in infrastructure, connectivity, and awareness for cycling. These findings emphasize the need to enhance infrastructure, improve safety, and promote active mobility for a sustainable and inclusive urban environment in Ethiopia and beyond.

12:35
Motorcyclists’ Red-Light Behaviour at Traffic Light Intersections in the Accra Metropolis, Ghana
PRESENTER: Thomas Ojo

ABSTRACT. The increasing use of motorcycles in urban Africa is receiving attention in the research community. In this paper, we explore the nuanced characteristics of motorcycle use and the behaviour of riders in Accra, the capital of Ghana. An observational checklist was used to profile riders (and pillion passengers) and observe their everyday behaviours at three purposively selected signalized intersections over a five-day period. A total of 4,895 motorcyclists were observed over the period. A statistically significant relationship was found between motorcyclists’ red-light behaviour at signalized intersections and the time of travel, day of observation, the presence of a pillion passenger, the presence of other motorcyclists waiting at the intersection as well as rider’s use of helmet, sun-shield, mobile phone, headphone. The study found a high rate of red light violations and a low level of safety consciousness among motorcyclists. This finding and other unobserved factors are believed to explain the high rate of crashes and fatalities among motorcyclists in Ghana. It is recommended that officials of the National Road Safety Authority and the Motor Transport and Traffic Department of the Ghana Police Service increase their surveillance at the intersections to ward off recalcitrant motorcyclists.

10:30-13:00 Session 5C: Road safety analysis
10:30
Assessment of Under-Reporting of Road Traffic Fatalities: Application of the Capture-Recapture Method in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
PRESENTER: Meron Getachew

ABSTRACT. This study aimed to generate a reliable estimate of road traffic deaths in Addis Ababa by linking hospital and police data sources using the capture-recapture approach. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted over two one-year periods, three years apart, using abstracted patient charts from three designated trauma hospitals and the medical examiner referral center with linkage to police fatal crash records for the same period. A total of 608 road traffic deaths were identified in hospital records and 943 from police records over the two rounds. 504 cases matched in both data sources. The capture-recapture analysis estimated 1137 (95% CI: 1109–1165) road traffic deaths in Addis Ababa, suggesting that police records accounted for 83% of the estimated deaths. Underreporting of deaths was more likely for males and those aged 15-44 years old. The findings show a degree of underreporting, but not as severe as WHO estimates.

10:55
Assessing Road Safety Measures Influencing Motorists’ Behaviours in Metropolis Lagos, Nigeria

ABSTRACT. Road safety measures are essential ingredients in the development of any country’s transportation infrastructure. Therefore, making sure that the road environment is safe is a positive step to changing rightly motorists’ behavioural disposition for compliance’s purpose. This study evaluated road safety measures influencing motorists’ behavioural dispositions, specifically referencing the Lagos road environment. This study employed a survey research design anchored on a quantitative method. The study adopted a cross-sectional survey research design. A survey-based questionnaire was applied to 293 registered motorists. The study results showed evidence of the Friedman rank analysis of the road safety measures towards motorists’ behaviours, with a chi-square outcome of 108.191 at p-value 0f 0.000. Also, a R-Square of 44.4 percent was recorded between road safety measures and motorists’ behaviours in the metropolis of Lagos, at a p-value of 0.000. The study recommended that efforts at implementing the rank analytical outcome should be taken seriously to further encourage collaboration among stakeholders (such as Federal Road Safety Corps, Nigeria Police Force, and other State Transport Authorities) in a bid to see that adequate road safety compliance is sustained. From the safety perspective, this study has contributed by developing a ranking for the selected road safety measures and creating a positive relationship with motorists’ behaviour in the Lagos road environment.

11:20
Road Safety in the Southern African Development Community: a Composite Desktop Benchmarking Review of Member States

ABSTRACT. Transport systems in Africa are evolving rapidly as countries develop, urbanise and motorise, resulting in heightened road safety needs. Two successive UN Global Decades of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020 and 2021-2030) have aimed to halve road deaths, with high-income countries faring better than low- and middle-income countries in relation to this target. The African Region has the highest road death rate globally, yet relatively little road safety research has been carried out on the continent. In particular, no comprehensive benchmarking study has focused on the Southern African Development Community (SADC) despite its 16 member states comprising a third of Africa’s land mass and 26% of its population. This composite desktop benchmarking review examined four previous sub-studies on SADC member states’ pillars of action for road safety, as reflected in the World Health Organisation’s 2018 Global Status Report on Road Safety. Sub-study scores were combined to derive a composite score per member state, allowing them to be ranked from ‘best-in-class’ to ‘worst-in-class’ in relation to global best practice. The review revealed significant road safety deficiencies across the SADC, especially in relation to vehicle safety standards, child restraints and post-crash care, and most of the states with national road safety strategies did not fully fund these or include appropriate timebound death reduction targets. Key recommendations include strengthening road safety institutional frameworks; developing legislation for safer roads, vehicles and road users; enhancing post-crash care systems; and improving road safety data availability.

11:45
Applying the Food Deserts Theory in the Field of Road Safety for Small Traffic Analysis Zones in Cape Town

ABSTRACT. Hulchanski (2010) translated the ‘food desert’ theory (Wrigley et al., 2002) to the field of Transport Engineering. Vanderschuren et al. (2021) proved that the ‘transit desert’ theory can be applied in the South African context.

Motivated by the extremely high road fatality rates in South Africa (Vanderschuren et al, 2017), the authors are on a quest to improve road safety analysis methodologies, adapting the food- and transit deserts theory to the field of road safety.

‘Road safety deserts’ are derived from the ‘transit desert’ concept. The methodology was developed by the Centre for Transport Studies at the University of Cape Town, A user safety value and the quality of various road characteristics supplied are used to identify areas where there is a road safety desert, i.e., areas where the road safety risk is the highest. This methodology was applied to the city of Cape Town to determine its validity.

One of the major challenges of previous work is the size of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) used and in previous work it was recommended to change that. This paper addresses the TAZ size challenge by using police station-based areas. It will be interesting to see the variation of road safety desert scores within a previously utilised TAZ.

This paper proves that the calculation of ‘road safety deserts’ is possible for small TAZs.

The proof of concept is based on the work of Alexandra Newlands, and her thesis is attached.

12:10
Vulnerable Road Users’ Safety Assessment Along the Eight-Lane Roadway - a Case of Kimara – Kibaha Roadway Section in Tanzania
PRESENTER: Jaqueline Masaki

ABSTRACT. The expansion of the 19.2km Kimara-Kibaha roadway section in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, from a two-way two-lane to a two-way eight-lane was undertaken to alleviate traffic congestion and improve traffic flow in the urban area. While such road expansion projects are effective in reducing congestion and increasing vehicular speed, they can pose challenges for vulnerable road users (VRUs), particularly pedestrians. Limited studies in developing countries have evaluated these impacts. To evaluate such impacts, this research employed methods including crash hotspot analysis and star rating analysis as proposed by the International Road Assessment Program (iRAP). The study involved the manual extraction of crash data spanning nine years, from 2014 to 2022, from traffic police reports stored at local police stations along the roadway section. Hotspot analysis revealed consistent high-risk areas for VRU crashes, with these risks primarily influenced by factors such as population density and socio-economic conditions. It is noteworthy that the study observed a reduction in fatal VRU crashes, decreasing from 25 fatalities in 2015 to an average of 7 per year in 2022. However, there was a concurrent increase in severe crashes, particularly affecting pedestrians. Furthermore, the star rating analysis indicated that less than 50% of the expanded road achieved a 3-star or better safety rating for VRUs, highlighting inadequate safety measures, especially for pedestrians. The study discusses practical implications, emphasizing the need for improved safety measures for VRUs in multi-lane road expansions to enhance road safety and reduce risks for pedestrians and other vulnerable users.

12:35
Estimating Road Traffic Deaths in Accra, Ghana Using the Capture-Recapture Method
PRESENTER: Raphael Awuah

ABSTRACT. Improving outcomes from road traffic crashes require reliable data to better assess the burden. To generate accurate estimates of road traffic deaths, it is recommended that at least two independent data sources — including at least one health sector source — should be used. Consequently, data on road crash victims were accessed from hospitals with linkage to existing police crash data to provide a basis to generate reliable counts of road traffic deaths in the city of Accra, Ghana. A descriptive cross-sectional design approach was used over two rounds to collect retrospective hospital data in three major referral hospitals in Accra. All cases of road injury serious to require hospital admission or resulting in death before hospital admission were identified using abstraction of data from existing records. Hospital records on road deaths were linked to existing police fatal crash data and the capture-recapture technique applied to generate estimates of road fatalities. Findings show that police reported 345 road deaths over the two rounds while hospital records had 148 deaths, with 63 cases found in both data sources. The number of deaths from the capture-recapture estimate was 805 — suggesting that police reported deaths were 43% of the estimated number. Linkage of police and hospital data in Accra suggests that road traffic deaths are underreported. This reinforces the importance of linking multiple data sources to generate a more accurate count of road deaths to inform planning and implementation of interventions in healthcare delivery, transport sector, and police enforcement to improve outcomes.

10:30-13:00 Session 5D: Trip-making choices
10:30
Residential Location and Trip Making Behaviour of the Elderly in a Developing City, Nigeria: Towards an Inclusive and Equitable Society

ABSTRACT. As the global population ages, both developed and developing nations face profound challenges in adapting their healthcare, social systems, and policies to accommodate this demographic shift. Our research delved into the travel behavior of the elderly in Akure, Nigeria, with a systematic survey of 197 respondents across different residential zones. The findings revealed notable variations in demographic factors and travel patterns among respondents in these zones. Interestingly, elderly individuals residing in high and medium-density residential areas exhibited fewer travel activities compared to those in low-density residential areas. Notably, the well-organized and planned design of neighborhoods in low-density areas had a positive impact on the mobility of the elderly population, highlighting the significance of urban planning in fostering mobility and inclusivity for senior citizens.

10:55
Understanding the Conditions for Passengers to Consider Accepting Transfers Between MyCiTi and Minibus-Taxi Services
PRESENTER: Kapil Singh

ABSTRACT. Cities across South Africa are constantly seeking to improve the level of public transport provision to better serve their users. Cape Town is seen as a leader in this respect; however, the existing public transport network is as fragmented as the rest of South Africa and generally offers a poor level of service. The introduction of the MyCiTi Bus Rapid Transit system was seen as a partial solution to the fragmented network as it was envisaged to replace the minibus taxi and Golden Arrow bus network by the year 2032 (CoCT, 2014). Considering the remarkably low financial efficiencies achieved by many Phase 1 feeder services, the 2020 MyCiTi Business Plan for Phase 2A (CoCT, 2020) underlined the need to develop feeder alternatives for MyCiTi. Cape Town is pursuing an integrated public transportation network, with MyCiTi BRT providing trunk routes and minibus taxis (MBTs) handling feeder services. This multi-modal approach presents challenges due to differing travel experiences between MyCiTi and MBTs. To address these concerns, the City is implementing strategies such as coordinated scheduling, integrated ticketing, enhanced passenger information, and public engagement. The success of this integrated network will hinge on the City's ability to mitigate passenger apprehensions and effectively communicate the system's benefits. This study evaluates public transport users' preferences when transferring between modes and recommends that Cape Town prioritise improving these transfers. While full integration is expensive and long-term, Cape Town should focus resources on addressing the most important transfer-related attributes.

11:20
Navigating the Healthy Path: the Role of Mobile Technology in Enhancing Pedestrian Wayfinding and Wellness Perception in Nigeria
PRESENTER: Rasheed Azeez

ABSTRACT. This study investigates the role of mobile technology in improving pedestrian wayfinding capabilities and enhancing the perception of walking environments for the better overall wellness of people. The increasing focus on active lifestyles and walkable cities demands innovative solutions to support pedestrians. The findings from this study highlight the considerable potential of mobile apps and technologies in transforming urban spaces into pedestrian-friendly zones. By providing efficient and user-friendly navigation tools, these technologies can contribute significantly to enhancing mobility and encouraging more active and healthier lifestyles. Moreover, the study underscores the role of technology-driven interventions in shaping positive perceptions of urban walkability, thereby promoting wellness and contributing to the development of sustainable and people-centric urban planning strategies. The insights gathered from the data collected from Nigerians emphasize the relevance of these technological solutions in creating more inclusive, accessible, and vibrant urban spaces that cater to the needs of pedestrians and promote healthier lifestyles for residents. This study advocates for the integration of mobile apps and technologies into urban planning initiatives as a means to foster pedestrian-friendly environments and enhance the overall wellness of Nigerians.

11:45
An assessment of Non-motorised Transportation (NMT) in policy and practice: The case of Zambia
PRESENTER: Wilma Nchito

ABSTRACT. The policies and plans of the City of Lusaka are biased towards motorised transport (MT) neglecting NMT despite NMT being the most common mode of transport for residents of the City. This study sought to review policy documents of the City of Lusaka to establish the extent to which NMT issues are integrated and propose actions. The research approach employed was a case study and literature analysis and observations were the data collection methods used. Documents reviewed included the Transport Policy, Road Transport and Urban Planning Laws, City Plans and Road Projects. The City of Lusaka does not have an NMT policy and the national transport Policy does not make provisions or mention NMT. Investment priorities and policies in these cities changed to favour MT thus side-lining NMT options. Understandably, since its invention, the automobile has captivated and transformed human societies improving the ways of life and dictating road transport infrastructure investments in cities through construction and expansion of roads. City authorities especially in the global North, have taken some commendable strides to reverse car dependency by promoting and formulating policies, plans and legislation aimed at making NMT priority a preferred transport means (European Communities, 1999; United States of America Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), 2004; City of Modesto, 2009; City Government of Ghent, 2012; Hogan, 2015). Some of these cities target achieving NMT usage percentages which global south cities have already attained (Becker, 2011; United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), 2013). On the contrary, global south cities such as Lusaka seem to be moving in the opposite direction by neglecting NMT and continued expansion of city roads to accommodate more vehicular traffic. Studies have shown that the demand for motor vehicles in global south cities especially Sub-Sahara African (SSA) will continue to increase in the next few decades (Zambia Consumers Association (ZACA), 2007). This paper, therefore, looks at how NMT issues are integrated into the plans and policies of the City of Lusaka as a case study.

12:10
Commuter Preference Study in Cape Town Using Case 2 Best-Worst Scaling

ABSTRACT. A commuter preference study in Cape Town using Case 2 Best-Worst Scaling was conducted for Bus, Minibus Taxi (MBT), MyCiTi and Train commuters. Each commuter was presented with nine choice sets with varying attribute levels for travel. The attributes explored were travel time, travel cost and reliability. The commensurate attribute levels were travel faster, travel slower, travel same duration; paying less, paying more, paying the same; experience delay, peak frequency and off-peak frequency. The study confirmed that cheaper fare is predominately preferred. There were nuanced differences on the worst attributes for bus commuters, fare increase; for MBT commuters, off-peak frequency; for MyCiti and Train commuters experiencing delays was ranked the worst.

Case 2 Best-Worst Scaling shows promise for future transport studies. Areas of improvement for future studies are increasing attributes being studied and pivot tranches for travel cost and travel time.

12:35
Understanding the Factors Influencing Residents’ Use of Minibus Taxis: a Case Study on Dunoon
PRESENTER: Dineo Mogotsi

ABSTRACT. For decades, passengers have voiced concerns about minibus taxi drivers' conduct, road safety, overloading, and vehicle conditions. Despite these issues, minibus taxis remain a crucial component of South Africa's public transportation system. The study investigated the factors influencing passenger choice in selecting a mode of public transportation in Dunoon, Cape Town, examining the advantages and disadvantages of minibus taxis and their main competitor (MyCiTi buses), as well as the implications of minibus taxi usage. The research was conducted in Dunoon, a township in Cape Town's Western Cape province. The study employed a qualitative data collection methodology involving semi-structured interviews and participant observation. Thematic analysis, a technique for identifying and interpreting recurring themes within the data, was used to analyse the gathered data. Two broad concepts, paratransit and bus rapid transit (BRT), guided the study's investigation. The study's findings indicate that affordability, accessibility, time, safety, and ease of use are all significant considerations for passengers. Minibus taxis emerged as the most popular mode of public transportation in Dunoon due to their speed, affordability, convenience, flexibility, perceived social cohesion, and lack of viable alternatives. This contrasts with the MyCiTi bus service, which, despite its punctuality, lags behind minibus taxis in popularity due to longer travel times, route limitations, overcrowding, communication issues, and payment system glitches. The study concludes that a hybrid model, which integrates both formal public transport and paratransit and allows for adaptation to the urban design of different areas, offers the most sustainable approach to enhancing commuter journeys in Dunoon.

10:30-13:00 Session 5E: Traffic management
10:30
Real Time Smart Road Traffic Flow Management System in a Developing Country
PRESENTER: Joanne Mahugu

ABSTRACT. The Intelligent Transport System (ITS) project is part of the Nairobi Urban Transport Improvement Programme that is sponsored by Kenya Urban Roads Authority (KURA) which manages, develops, rehabilitates, and maintains all public roads in cities and municipalities. The system is able to study traffic flow data in real-time, thereby allowing longer traffic flow on roads with most traffic, thus minimising unnecessary waiting time. The goal of this collaboration project between Kenyatta University (KU) and Kenya Urban Roads Authority (KURA) is to develop a smart traffic control system that utilizes machine learning to analyze traffic flow. The project aims to improve the efficiency and safety of traffic management in urban roads. The smart traffic control system was able to predict traffic patterns, optimize traffic signals, and provide real-time traffic information to drivers, thus reducing congestion and improving overall traffic flow. The research designed and developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) model based on deep learning technology that automatically learns traffic patterns, captures vehicle number plates, identifies traffic violations using Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) infrastructure thus directing traffic flow, combating traffic offences and reducing accidents.

10:55
How Displaying Alternative Routes’ Travel Times on Dynamic Message Signs Can Reduce Congestion in African Cities – Lessons from a Case Study in Michigan, USA

ABSTRACT. As the populations of African urban areas continue to grow, development of congestion mitigation strategies is increasingly more urgent. Travel time is one of the most important information travelers need to decide which route to take for their journey. Dynamic message sign (DMS) can be used to provide travelers with real-time travel time information and other traffic messages for alternative routes. To make recommendations for African cities, this study taps lessons from a case study in Michigan, USA, which assessed the association between the travel time information displayed on DMS between two alternative routes and the propensity of a driver to divert and save time. The results confirm the expected positive benefits of DMS travel time information to drivers as it helps them select a route that minimize their total trip travel time. Diverting traffic helps in minimizing congestion impact on the alternative routes. Although the functional and operational requirements for installing DMSs do not necessarily differ by country or continent, the guidelines should consider potential behavioral differences. Driver behavior studies in African cities are needed to establish the basis for effective designs and installation of DMSs. Among the critical steps that need to be taken by African governments and transportation agencies to facilitate implementation of effective DMSs on roadways include investing in the infrastructure needed to operate them.

11:20
Evaluating Traffic Signal Optimisation Systems
PRESENTER: Norbert Matilya

ABSTRACT. Traffic signal control systems are one of the most used intersection control devices. Primarily, these systems control the time sequence of signal phases. Finding a more consistent and accurate way to optimise the performance of a traffic signal system could potentially improve traffic flow and reduce congestion on the roads. The main objective of this research project is to develop a better way to compare the performance of different traffic signal control systems. First, a real-world intersection was used as the test case. The intersection was then modelled in Simulation of Urban Mobility. Furthermore, the tool was used to simulate the operations of different traffic signal systems at the intersection. Vehicle counts were generated in the simulated environment based on the observed counts. Four different traffic signals were used for this project; these were actuated, delay-based, static, and a reinforcement learning system. A multi-criteria decision analysis was used to assess the performance of the various systems. After various tests, reinforcement learning traffic signal control outperformed the other conventional system.

11:45
Microscopic Evaluation of Traffic Operations on Urban Arterial Roads: the Case of Ongwediva, Namibia
PRESENTER: Obed Bore

ABSTRACT. The study investigated traffic operations along the Mandume Ndemufayo Street in Ongwediva during traffic peak hours and established the actual and intended access control management. The literature review conducted identified digital technologies such as micro-simulation as valuable tools in planning and evaluating transportation strategies to improve efficiency and sustainability. Data collected included traffic volume, vehicle composition and turning proportions. The screen-line counts were conducted at the selected intersections. The developed PTV VISSIM model was calibrated and validated to reflect the actual traffic conditions and to assess several intersection control scenarios. The simulation results showed reduced vehicle delay and stop delay between 30 % and 87 % with the introduction of a traffic signal. Similarly, the total queue length and the maximum queue length were reduced between 2 % and 80 % at the selected intersections. Overall, signal control improved the traffic operations and reduced emissions between 20 % and 40 %.

12:10
Enhancing Urban Mobility Through Traffic Flow Analysis: a Case Study of Avenida de Marginal in Maputo City
PRESENTER: Lauro Mota

ABSTRACT. Efficient transportation management hinges on traffic forecasting, a potent tool influencing travel decisions and congestion relief in urban settings. Yet, many developing cities neglect this vital tool despite facing a growing disparity between transportation supply and demand. This study concentrates on predicting traffic dynamics along Avenida de Marginal, a pivotal artery connecting Maputo's city center, with a specific focus on comprehending traffic volume and peak-hour patterns and their implications for urban mobility.

To achieve this objective, we conducted exhaustive one-day traffic surveys along Avenida de Marginal, employing our innovative VISU traffic counting technology and video cameras. We harnessed advanced techniques, including Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models, to dissect the intricate subtleties of traffic flow, yielding a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics. Our findings unveiled that during the morning peak period, our observations reveal a significant proportion of vehicles experiencing brief stationary phases, lasting less than 20 seconds, signaling relatively smooth traffic flow. This underscores the pivotal role of efficient transportation management during peak hours, influencing travel choices and promoting greater road network utilization. However, it is imperative to acknowledge another facet of this dynamic: a notable segment of vehicles enduring extended stationary phases, exceeding 19 seconds, particularly in congested stretches stretching over a kilometer. Our evaluation of the LSTM model's performance, employing key metrics, yields intriguing findings. Remarkably, when considering both morning and day peak periods together, the model showcases exceptional performance, characterized by an MSE of 3.97, a MAE of 0.97, and an impressive R-squared value of 0.91.

12:35
Estimation of PCE Factors for Traffic at Signalized Intersections for Capacity Analysis in Monrovia
PRESENTER: Miller Garmi

ABSTRACT. Estimating passenger car unit (PCU) values in developing countries is crucial for traffic analysis and capacity planning. However, the unique traffic mix, driver behavior, and infrastructure challenges in these countries make traditional approaches used in developed nations unsuitable. Heterogeneous traffic, consisting of a wide variety of vehicle types and poor lane discipline, further complicates intersection performance evaluation. Conventional methods struggle to handle this complexity due to data limitations and difficulties in measurement. To address these challenges, researchers are turning to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or drones to streamline data collection and extraction. In this study, three selected signalized intersections were analyzed using UAV monitoring data in the city of Monrovia. Namely, the Capitol Bypass intersection, Boulevard Junction, and Neezoe Junction. The average speed and area occupancy method was employed. A Multiple Linear Regression model was developed to model the PCUs for different vehicle categories at these intersections. Results from the analysis revealed that the PCU values for two-wheelers, three-wheelers, taxis, minibuses, Light Commercial vehicles, and medium trucks are 0.23, 0.60, 1.18, 1.21, 1.59, and 2.00 respectively. The PCU values obtained and the modeled equations in this study can be used as a guideline in the traffic analysis and performance evaluation at signalized intersections in the city of Monrovia and generally in other counties in the Republic of Liberia.

10:30-13:00 Session 5F: Innovations in transport planning
10:30
Africa’s Uncertain Futures: Reconceptualising Long-Term Transport Planning Practice in Cape Town Using Deep Uncertainty Techniques
PRESENTER: Marli Swart

ABSTRACT. In transport planning, predicting or estimating the future has primarily been based upon trend analysis of historic cause-effect relationships: trip generation; trip distribution; mode split; travel behaviour; etc. For decades, this has been sufficient for the needs of long-term transport planning practices, with few alternatives available to the conventional method of a 4-step model and a set of network alternatives that are benchmarked against predetermined metrics of success. However, recent expansions of the scope of transport planning practice—from the movement of vehicles, to the movement of people, to the access of people—has increased the number of variables, the amount of uncertainty, and complexity within the system that needs to be planned for. Similarly, unexpected events, such as the consequences of climate change and a global pandemic, have compounded these aspects to the point at which the reliance on historic cause-effect relationships has been brought into question within transport planning authorities. This paper describes the methods and approaches that have arisen in other sectors to grapple with this ‘deep uncertainty’, and how their use within transport planning is still in its infancy. The paper highlights how the City of Cape Town government was confronted with a degree of uncertainty that made a conventional long-term transport planning process inappropriate, with some sources of uncertainty specifically pertaining to African cities. They reconceptualised their transport planning practice using a new approach that brings the latest techniques from the climate adaptation, Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU), and sustainability transitions research fields into transport planning; some for the first time. The lessons from developing these new transport planning practices will be relevant to those cities across the continent, and many others in the Global South, who are looking to embrace uncertainty, rather than conceal it, when facing uncertain futures.

10:55
Conflicting Interests: Negotiating a Process of Inclusion in the Integrated Public Transport Network Plan

ABSTRACT. The aim of this research is to establish whether conflict and contestation that is commonplace during the Integrated Transport Plan (IPTN) projects can be used productively without resulting in violence or project failure. Applying. Also, more discursive and deliberative frameworks, the research explores the efficacy of conflict resolution mechanisms that have been institutionalized. The research position for this study is that it is possible to sustain active engagements despite conflicts. The value of this perspective is that these existing mutualities can result in some productive engagement and partial agreement as opposed to spiraling into antagonistic violence and project failure. The case study approach is based on the City of Ekurhuleni’s (CoE) Integrated Transport Plan (IPTN) process and the interim negotiations between the city and the Ekurhuleni Taxi Industry (ETI) between 2016-2022. To unveil the crevices in these two institutions, the researcher spent a year in both institutions to try to understand the origins, dynamics and hidden sources of organizational conflict and intersections. This paper employs several methods to piece together the discourses of power and interest, including field observation, interviews, and desktop study of archival material such as minutes, recordings, and reports. Some of the study’s findings indicate that while the human capital and expertise of the paratransit industry were not incorporated into the IRPTN plan, there was some value in the orientation of public transport reform efforts to the institutionalization of collaborative and conflict resolution mechanisms which has resulted in less extreme forms of violent engagements which have been characteristic of BRT negotiations.

11:20
Urban Transport and Model Circulation in African Cities: Identifying Trajectories and Development Paths
PRESENTER: Gaele Lesteven

ABSTRACT. Introduction The future of African metropolises will largely rely on urban services and among them, urban transport. Indeed, African metropolises are facing similar challenges linked to demographic growth and spatial expansion. The demand for daily journeys is growing in number and distance, increasing pressure on infrastructures and existing transport systems, with growing negative externalities (pollution, congestion, accidents). Urban sprawl challenges urban planning and the provision of services, leading to growing inequalities, processes of social and spatial exclusion, and increasing difficulties of access to services. In this context, several African big cities are implementing mass-rapid transit projects, designed to answering simultaneously several issues (high demand, land planning, control over paratransit services, transport governance). Huge investments have been made in the transport sector over the last decade, thanks to a favorable economic climate and the support of new stakeholders: IFIs, consultants, and private actors, who contribute to shape the urban transport sector by transferring international best practices & tools. At the same time, the emergence of digital technology in the transport sector, whether spontaneous (e-hailing, etc.) or managed (data governance, fleet tracking, digital ticketing, etc.), is leading to changes in access to mobility and in the way transport services are provided. All of this gives the impression of a form of alignment of African cities with global standards, which underlines the desire of public authorities to modernize urban transport and respond to present and future challenges. But the scale of the investments, the dependence on technical and financial partners, and the choice of modes and routes adopted are all debated by city dwellers, who see these projects as solutions that reflect the public authorities' quest for modernity rather than their desire to meet the needs of the most modest of city dwellers. There is also debate about how to link up with existing systems, particularly in the small-scale and informal sector, where there is little involvement. There is little thought being given to intermodality at a time when major infrastructure projects are being rolled out, and the integration of all services into a coherent system is universally desired but little prepared for. Observing the changes in urban transport systems, and consequently in the cities themselves, leads us to ask a number of questions. Firstly, how are urban transport models from the global world being adopted and adapted? The adoption of new, high-capacity modes of transport is by no means a foregone conclusion, and the question of how they can be adapted to the context of African cities arises. Secondly, we need to look at the conditions under which these models can be integrated into existing systems. Finally, by observing these processes, we can ask questions about cities trajectories and, more generally, about development paths, between continuities, inflections, ruptures or leapfrogs. 
 Review of extent litterature There is no shortage of scientific literature on African transport systems (Godard, 2002, 2008; Venter, 2016; Lombard et al., 2022), as well as expert reports and policy briefs that are either synthetic (Venter et al., 2019) or focus on particular aspects. In general, the analyses highlight the specific features of transport systems dominated by the paratransit (Behrens et al., 2015; Cervero and Golub, 2017; Agbiboa, 2020; Kumar et al., 2021). The diversity of services on offer (minibuses, taxis, motorbikes, etc.) is ambivalent: on the one hand, it enables the demand to be met, including that of a population that is not very solvent; on the other hand, it generates numerous negative externalities (pollution, accidents, congestion) and is struggling to meet an increasing and diversifying demand, in a context of urban expansion and growth. The shift that many African metropolises are taking, with the adoption of high-capacity modes of transport (BRT, TER), remains little studied (Wood, 2015, Timera et al., 2020; Crillon, 2022), as does the role of digital technology in daily mobility, in the provision of services and in sectorial governance (Ajayi et al., 2021; Tanikawa et al., 2022). These developments seem to be bringing about radical transformations in the existing socio-technical systems and they are part of the register of transitions, the modalities of which need to be questioned. Indeed, transitions on the continent seem less certain than elsewhere (Magrin and Ninot, 2021), more exposed to obstacles, and following unusual, unexpected or even unprecedented trajectories. In the field of network services, we have already seen hybridisations (Jaglin, 2014) that reveal ways of adapting and innovating that are specific to cities in the global South (Geels, 2004; Moradi and Vagnoni, 2018; Feige et al., 2019). This leads us to question the ways in which technical models and, more broadly, urban models from the global world are adopted in the South (Baker and Temenos, 2015; Peyroux and Sanjuan, 2016), particularly TOD and its privileged instruments of capacity transport (Wood, 2022). African cities present contexts that generate more frictions to the adoption of these models and that can contribute to their inflection or even to their failure. Finally, our analysis leads us to question the trajectories followed by major African cities, between, on the one hand, the influence of global models pushing them towards a form of standardisation or transformation into ordinary cities, and on the other, the permanence of irreducible singularities (Robinson, 2006 and 2011; McCann and Ward, 2011; McFarlane, C., 2010). The current period, which is seeing these cities transform without radically departing from their identity, is marked by uncertainty, and the paths taken remain difficult to read. From this perspective, the southern turn in urban studies, leading to think urban changes from a global south perspective might be useful (Parnell and Robinson, 2012). Methodology Firstly, it was essential to gather precise information on transport projects that were nearing completion or had recently been brought into service, both to gather the arguments that accompanied and motivated the technical choices made, and to understand the exact extent of the systems deployed. Budgets have generally been revised upwards several times, and the technical characteristics sometimes differ between the project phases and the actual installations. In the digital field, the information available is often even more confused, often dominated by positive speeches and promises of major changes. It remains difficult to gain perspective on ongoing processes and to find objective data, as few surveys exist to date. Fieldwork in several African cities (Dakar, Abidjan, Cape Town, Nairobi) that has been led by our team or other ones brings useful insights, with specific attention drawn to the governance set-up (who is in charge of the transport planning, regulation, and contracting with transport operators), the stakeholders’ ecosystem and the power relationships between them, the operations of transport systems and the practices of urban dwellers. In Dakar and Cape Town, surveys have been conducted to assess the impact of digital tools on the use of urban transport among city dwellers. Qualitative interviews with city officials, practitioners and academics have been used to collect further information, identify common trends and get insights on the vision and norms underlying the stakeholders’ actions.

Findings Common trends observed in the 4 cities we studied. A Metropolitan scale-up In the studied metropolitan areas, we observed process of scaling up of the cities, which comes along with the massive changes taking place. Several things attesting this can be observed: multiplication of planning documents, set-up of metropolitan transport authorities, volume of the investments in urban services, but also an increasing use of tools such as TOD to combine action on land-use and urban transport, and the development of a strategic and long-term vision. The limits of mass-transit projects The spread of mass-transit projects over the continent, supported by IFIs, with the ambition to answer multiple issues is a major change. As massive investments in infrastructures are often attached to these projects, they are exposed to public criticism. Due to the constraints in terms of calendar (often linked to political agendas) and the technical requirements of the stakeholders involved, lack of coordination between the different projects at the local level, and mass-transit projects often poorly integrated within their territory and with other transport modes. The emergence of digital tools The fast adoption of digital tools leads to 3 main outcomes: the development of on-demand transport offers (due to the possibility to use apps and real-time data), new options for ticketing and payment as well as passenger information, and new perspectives in terms of governance, with the possibility to collect data on informal transport for instance, map and track vehicles and operators (Lyons, 2018). The limits of digital tools appear for they tend to recreate new mechanisms of social and spatial exclusion (Loukou, 2012; Peyroux E., Ninot O., 2019). In addition, surveys show that they are not really game changers in urban mobility so far.

Discussion Model circulation and the ideal of modernity Currently, the spread of mass-transit projects is enshrined in a very specific ideal of modernity: performance and technology. A clash of ideals comes when comparing the actual passenger data of transport services such as MyCiti in CT (66 000 passengers/day for a 4-million city). What is the rationale behind the spread of models such as the BRT? The impact of the ideal of modernity among decision-makers, and international standards is determinant in the choices that had been made in favor of mass-transit systems. Thus, these choices are open to debate, as they have not always been guided by the need to respond effectively to demand, in the social and geographical contexts specific to each city. For instance, the mass-transit systems adopted poorly take in account the NMT (walking is still the main mode of transport in African cities) and also frequently miss the articulation with paratransit (Diaz Olvera et al., 2016). Splintering urbanism A major shift introduced both by digital tools diffusion and mass-transit projects is that data is now produced and used to optimize the existing services and the public action. One tool is supposed to solve several issues. However, these projects (mass-transit and use of data) are still relying on decision process. And the risk is “de-politize” the public action through the promise that every issue could be tackled at the same time. Another interpretation leads to consider that the data governance is actually a kind of Troy horse to enforce reforms (Tanikawa and al, 2022), especially reforms aiming to integrate paratransit or eradicate informality in transport business. Thus, this trends might lead to enhance social and spatial inequalities insofar as modern transport networks become increasingly structuring, even though they are in reality less ubiquitous and less accessible than paratransit. Paratransit services at stake Even though modern projects and governance tools being promoted, paratransit services remain a strong political sector in all cities, and provide for the daily mobilities of millions (Lesteven et al., 2022). One the one hand, mass-transit systems generally miss the opportunity to link up effectively with paratransit. For the moment, the systems remain sometimes competing, sometimes complementary, but not yet well integrated into a coherent and inclusive system. On the other hand, the use of digital tools is, at the moment, not widespread in this sector yet, and likely that won’t happen as MaaS already exist through the person of the “coxeur” and through preexisting informal services of e-hailing. The digital tools spread and the transformations brought by mass-transit modes don’t have big impacts on paratransit sectors, at the moment and cannot be considered as game changers so far (Boutueil V., Lesteven G., 2018). However, in the long term, it could happen that the current transformations that occur, lead either to an in-depth reform to professionalize and have the sector evolve towards salaried work, or rather towards a neoliberal evolution and uberization of the sector.

Conclusion African major cities are living a time of changes, but without disruption so far. Some qualitative and quantitative evolutions are nevertheless observed such as better safety conditions, possibly less traffic and increased transport offer. However, metropolitan transport systems seem to be undergoing a process of complexification rather than radical transformation, leading in particular to a reduction in the informal sector. The informal sector remains dominant, even if its existence is increasingly challenged by metropolitan policies guided by neoliberalism and the search for a hypothetical modernity. But while the trajectories of large cities continue to raise questions, the big issue is the evolution of medium-sized cities, which are now absorbing most of the continent's urban growth. Will they follow similar or different paths to the metropolises, and will the influence of globalized models be just as strong?

References Agbiboa D.E., 2020, “How informal transport systems drive African cities”. Current History (2020) 119 (817): 175–181. Ajayi, O.; Bagula, A.B.; Maluleke, H.C.; Odun-Ayo, I.A. Transport Inequalities and the Adoption of Intelligent Transportation Systems in Africa: A Research Landscape. Sustainability 2021, 13, 12891. Baker T., Temenos C., 2015. Urban policy mobilities research: Introduction to a debate. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 39, p. 824–827. Behrens, R., D. McCormick, and D. Mfinanga. 2015. Paratransit in African Cities: Operations, Regulation and Reform. London: Routledge. Boutueil V., Lesteven G., 2018, « The role of ICT-based innovations in transforming intermediate transport in African cities. The cases of Cape Town, Nairobi and Addis Ababa », 7th Transport Research Arena, Vienna, Austria Cervero R., Golub A., (2007), “Informal transport : A global perspective”, Transport Policy, 14 (6), 445-457 Crillon, A., 2022. Infrastructure de transport de masse et système local de mobilité en Afrique subsaharienne : quelle intégration ? Le cas du Train Express Régional de Dakar (Sénégal). Mémoire de 2è année de Magistère urbanisme et aménagement. Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne. 108p. Diaz Olvera L., Plat D., Pochet P.. 2016. Changes in daily mobility patterns in Dakar (Senegal).14th World Conference on Transport Research, WCTRS-Tongji Iniversity, Jul 2016, Shanghaï, China. 14 p. halshs-01346869 Feige I., Mischke M., Gropman L., 2019, City Archetypes : How might specific needs of cities be best addressed in considering urban mobility ?, IFMO BMW GROUP, PCH INNOVATIONS Geels, F.W. (2004). From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems. Research Policy, 33(6-7). Géraud Magrin and Olivier Ninot, 2021. “Transitions et développement en Afrique :un continent d’incertitude”, Bulletin de l’association de géographes français, 97-4 | 2021, 395-411. Godard X., 2008, “Transport artisanal, esquisse de bilan pour la mobilité durable”, Conférence CODATU XIII, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Godard, X. (dir.) (2002). Les transports et la ville en Afrique au sud du Sahara : Le temps de la débrouille et du désordre inventif. Karthala/INRETS, Paris. Jaglin S. 2014, « Regulating Service Delivery in Southern Cities: Rethinking Urban Heterogeneity », dans Parnell S., Oldfield S. (éds), A Routledge Handbook on Cities of the Global South, Londres, Routledge, p. 434-447. Kumar A., Zimmerman S., and Arroyo-Arroyo F.. 2021. Myths and Realities of “Informal” Public Transport in Developing Countries: Approaches for Improving the Sector. Washington, DC: SSATP. Lesteven, G., Cissokho, D., Pochet, P., Diongue, M., & Sakho, P. (2022). Daily Mobility in Urban Peripheries : The Role of Clandestine Taxis in Dakar, Senegal. Sustainability, 14(11), 6769. Lombard J., Mareï N., Ninot O., 2022. 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Technological forecasting and social change, 126, 231–243. Ninot O., Peyrous E., 2018, « Révolution numérique et développement en Afrique : une trajectoire singulière. », Questions internationales, Dossier La Nouvelle Afrique, n°90, pp.44-52 Parnell, S., Robinson J., 2012. (Re)theorizing cities from the Global South: Looking beyond neoliberalism. Urban Geography, 33(4), p. 593-617. Parnell, S., Robinson J., 2012. (Re)theorizing cities from the Global South: Looking beyond neoliberalism. Urban Geography, 33(4), p. 593-617. Peyroux E., Ninot O., 2019, « De la « smart city » au numérique généralisé : la géographie urbaine au défi du tournant numérique », L’information géographique, vol.83, pp.40-57 Peyroux E.and Sanjuan T., “Stratégies de villes et « modèles » urbains : approche économique et géopolitique des relations entre villes ”, EchoGéo [Online], 36 | 2016, Online since 30 June 2016 Robinson J., 2006. Ordinary Cities: Between Modernity and Development. Abingdon, Routledge. Robinson, J., 2011a. Cities in a world of cities: The comparative gesture. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 35(1), p. 1-23. Tanikawa K., Coulaud L., Ninot O., 2022. Revolution des transports et transition numérique dans les villes du Sud : vers un modèle de mobilité intelligente ? in Peyroux E. et al. Développement, changement globaux et dynamiques des territoires. Theories, approaches et perspectives de recherche. ISTE editions. Pp 143-162. Timera M.B., Diongue M., Sakho P., Spooner D., 2020. Bus à haut niveau de service (BRT) à Dakar. Rapport de l’enquête d’évaluation de l’impact sur la main-d’oeuvre. 52 p. www.BRTLabourImpact.org Venter, C. 2016. Developing a Common Narrative on Urban Accessibility: A Transportation Perspective. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Venter, C., A. Mahendra, and D. Hidalgo. 2019. "From Mobility to Access for All: Expanding Urban Transportation Choices in the Global South." Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. Wood A., 2015. The politics of policy circulation: Unpacking the relationship between South African and South American cities in the adoption of Bus Rapid Transit. Antipode, 47, p. 1062-1079. Wood, A. (2022). Problematising concepts of transit-oriented development in South African cities. Urban Studies, 59(12), 2451–2467.

11:45
Investigating the Challenges Faced with the Implementation of the Sustainable Urban Transport Master Plan Within the City of Windhoek’s Public Transport Division

ABSTRACT. The city of Windhoek-Namibia aspires to be one of the leading cities in terms of urban excellence in Africa. This has been demonstrated by the adoption and implementation of the Sustainable Urban Transport Master Plan in 2014 that sought to improve mobility of its residence whilst achieving economic gains attached to such a plan. Ten years since its adoption, various reports have pointed out on problems faced under this plan such as depletion of bus services, route confusion and lack of infrastructure. However there seems to be a paucity of information on the main challenges faced by CoW hence this research sought to investigate in CoW’s context the challenges in the implementation processes which is hindering progress as well as offering strategies to mitigate these challenges in the present Namibian context. This study adopted a quantitative approach and a descriptive research design. Probability sampling method in the form of simple random sampling was used and a sample of 125 participants was chosen to take part in this study through a survey. Part of the findings showed that there is slow progress in terms of implementation of the master plan which is almost half way through its implementation period, lack of suitable infrastructure, lack of government support and lack of human resource capacity was also pointed out as some of the major challenges hindering the implementation progress.

12:10
An Initial Activity-Based Travel Demand Model for Nairobi’s Paratransit
PRESENTER: Obiora Nnene

ABSTRACT. Paratransit services within sub-Saharan cities continue to attract significant attention among transportation researchers due to thedistinctive challenges they present to policy makers, operators and planners including poor service reliability, aggressive driverbehaviour and competition with mode formal modes. Addressing these challenges call for rigorous research efforts and innovative solutions to inform sustainable urban mobility strategies and enhance the overall transportation ecosystem. In this work an initial attempt is made to develop an activity-based commuting scenario with indicative service pattern for Nairobi’s paratransit system. We utilize Nairobi’s 2013 travel survey data from to generate travel demand in the model. Using Iterative proportion fitting techniques and custom-made algorithms designed to address activity duration, we establish an indicative service pattern for the system. A workflow was created to efficiently handle the demand development process from start to finish. This pipeline, designed for demand synthesis, generated 970,000 individuals and nearly 2 million person-trips within 24 hours. The focus of this study is the Nairobi Metropolitan area, spanning an area of approximately 696.1 km2and inhabited by nearly 4.5 million residents. The proposed model will aid authorities in gaining insights into the system since the model can mimic the microscopic behaviour of commuters and operators of the service. Analysing such a model will yield beneficial insights that can improve the ability of the authorities to better plan and organise the services. Therefore the model can serve as a crucial tool in addressing paratransit challenges, particularly in terms of improving travel time, operational efficiency, and evaluating policy interventions.

12:35
Informalization of Transport and Efficiency of Governance of Sustainable and Inclusive Urban Transport in West Africa: the Need for Co-Production
PRESENTER: Vivien Meli Meli

ABSTRACT. Urbanization is one of the major phenomena facing Africa today. It is experiencing exponential urbanization, the figure of which reflects the lack of planning and management crisis. Urban sprawl is not accompanied by the establishment of the infrastructural and structural resources necessary to satisfy the diverse needs of a cosmopolitan population that amasses in the city. Under these conditions, beyond the slums, urban margins develop without exception, neither from the “city center” nor from the “urban periphery” and even tend to constitute the characteristic image of African cities. The object of this text is the analysis of the opportunity for inclusive mobility in the cities of Central and West Africa through the co-production model of transport governance. The proposal for this model comes from the domination of informal transport in cities and, conversely, from the considerations of urban disorder and violence that public authorities attach to them. This representation leads to always tense and antagonistic relations between informal transport actors and formal urban transport actors. The main cities of Central and West Africa, Douala and Abidjan, constituted the field of investigation, notably through direct observations, interviews and cartography. It emerges that co-production is a necessity to guarantee the inclusion of mobility in African cities. “Top-down” or “bottom-up” relationships do not seem to be operational in the dynamics of African urban transport governance. An approach that considers all operational stakeholders without prior prejudice is more sustainable and likely to reduce the risks linked to informal activity in the city. It can be noted that the working environment is favorable, since these different actors share the same urban living and working spaces on a daily basis and have “informal” agreements which make it possible to guarantee the operationality of transport.

13:00-14:00Lunch Break