PROGRAM
Days: Tuesday, December 13th Wednesday, December 14th Thursday, December 15th Friday, December 16th
Tuesday, December 13th
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
14:45-16:30 Session 1: Sessão Especial REAP I
Education and Inequality
Chair:
Naercio Menezes-Filho (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 14:45 | Short and long-term effects of a child-labor ban ( abstract ) |
| 15:10 | Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth: How much can cross-country regressions really tell us? ( abstract ) |
| 15:35 | Ex-Post Inequality of Opportunities Comparisons ( abstract ) |
16:30-16:45Coffee Break
16:45-18:30 Session 2: Sessão Especial REAP II
Macro Labor
Chairs:
Location: Ipê I
| 16:45 | Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects ( abstract ) |
| 17:35 | Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil ( abstract ) |
19:00-19:45 Session 3: Solenidade de abertura do 38º Encontro Brasileiro de Econometria e do 44º Encontro Nacional de Economia.
Location: Ballroom Cataratas I
20:45-21:30 Session 5: Homenagem ao Professor Aloisio Araújo (FGV/EPGE e IMPA)
Location: Ballroom Cataratas I
Wednesday, December 14th
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
08:30-10:15 Session 6A: Sessão Especial International Panel on Social Progress
First draft of the report "Rethinking Society for the 21st Century"
Chair:
André Portela de Souza (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 08:30 | presenters ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 6B: Economics and Politics I
Chair:
Ana Beatriz Pousada (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Discussant:
Rafael Costa Lima (UFPE, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 08:30 | Can Entertainment Media Undermine Dictatorships? Evidence from Brazil's Novelas ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Party Registration and Mayoral Elections ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | A Positive Theory of Red Tape ( abstract ) |
| 09:45 | Social Networks and Government - The effects of contacts on the probability of assignment to commissioned jobs ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 6C: DSGE
Chair:
Carlos A. T. Haraguchi (BCB, Brazil)
Location: Cedro
| 08:30 | O Banco Central do Brasil reage aos preços dos ativos? Uma abordagem utilizando um modelo DSGE ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil: a Markov Switching DSGE Estimation for the Inflation Targeting Period (2000-2015) ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Estimation and Identification of a DSGE model: an Application of the Data Cloning Methodology ( abstract ) |
| 09:45 | Política Monetária e depósitos compulsórios em uma pequena economia aberta ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 6D: Labor I
Chair:
Vitor Pereira (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Ipê II
| 08:30 | Son-Daughter Differences in the Effects of Birth Order and Family Size on Educational Attainment ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Minimum Wages, Early Child Development and Human Capital Outcomes: Longitudinal Evidence from Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Paying Students to Graduate from High School: Evidence from Renda Melhor Jovem Program ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 6E: Time Series
Chair:
Alain Hecq (Maastricht University, Netherlands)
Location: Alecrim
| 08:30 | Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Consumption function under precautionary motive and habit formation for a general income process ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Detecting Co-Movements in Asymmetric Cycles: A Noncausal Time Series Approach ( abstract ) |
10:15-10:30Coffee Break
10:30-12:15 Session 7A: Sessão Especial Banco Mundial
Efficiency and Effectiveness of Public Spending in Brazil
Chair:
Antonio Nucifora (World Bank, USA)
Location: Araucária
| 10:30 | Efficiency of expenditures in education services in Brazil: An International and Intra-national assessment ( abstract ) |
| 11:05 | Efficiency of expenditures in health services in Brazil: An International and Intra-national assessment ( abstract ) |
| 11:25 | Can program design improve the effectiveness of worker retraining? An evaluation of Brazil's Pronatec-MDIC ( abstract ) |
| 11:45 | Design and effect of subsidized credit: An analysis of PSI ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 7B: Development I
Chair:
Cezar Santos (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 10:30 | Access to Technical & Vocational Education and Training and labour market outcomes: a theoretical approach based on job market signalling ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | Household Income Inequality and Educational Assortative Mating in Marriage Market in Brazil: an empirical study. ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | Risky Income, Risky Families: Marriage and Divorce in a Volatile Labor Market ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 7C: Sessão Especial Itaú: Money
Chair:
Caio Machado (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Cedro
| 10:30 | A Paradox of Expansionary Policies ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | Rollover risk and the social value of credibility ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | Financial crises, coordination failures and disasters ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 7D: Prêmio SBE Micro Aplicada
Chair:
Cristiano Costa (Unisinos, Brazil)
Discussants:
Location: Ipê II
| 10:30 | Bright Minds, Big Rent: Gentrication and the Rising Returns to Skill ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | The Power of the State: National Borders and the Deforestation of the Amazon ( abstract ) |
12:15-13:45Lunch
13:45-15:30 Session 8A: Sessão Especial Itaú Social
A Importância da Gestão Escolar para o Aprendizado dos Alunos
Chair:
Naercio Menezes-Filho (Insper e FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 13:45 | presenters ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 8B: Finance I
Chair:
Rafael Azevedo (UFPE, Brazil)
Location: Alecrim
| 13:45 | High Frequency Tail Risk ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | A Note on the Estimation of Disaster Models with GEL Estimators ( abstract ) |
| 14:35 | Portfolio efficiency tests with conditioning information - Comparing GMM and GEL estimators ( abstract ) |
| 15:00 | Semi-Parametric Entropic Estimation of State Price Densities Implicit in Interest Rate Derivatives ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 8C: Macroeconomics I
Chair:
Andre Diniz (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Cedro
| 13:45 | Why Are Savings Rate so Low and Interest Rates so High in Brazil? The Role of Unfunded Social Security and Compulsory Savings ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Public Debt and Economic Growth: Tests of the Reinhart-Rogoff Hypothesis ( abstract ) |
| 14:35 | Effects of fiscal consolidations in Latin America ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 8D: International Economics
Chair:
Mirela Scarabel (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 13:45 | Accounting for the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Trade Liberalization and Third-Market Effects ( abstract ) |
| 14:35 | Sunk entry cost to export as source of competitiveness ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 8E: Sessão Especial Banco do Nordeste: Credit
Chair:
Christiano Coelho (Ibmec/RJ e UERJ, Brazil)
Location: Ipê II
| 13:45 | Impactos macroeconômicos da expansão do crédito no Brasil: o período 2001-2011 ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Earmarked Credit and Misallocation ( abstract ) |
| 14:35 | Credit Suply, Liquidity, and house prices - Evidence from a regulatory change in the Brazilian market ( abstract ) |
| 15:00 | A method for identifying aggregate credit supply and demand parameters using heteroskedasticity: an application for Brazil ( abstract ) |
15:30-15:45Break
15:45-17:30 Session 9: Conferência FGV/EPGE: Keynote Lecture, Giovanni Maggi
Chair:
Emanuel Ornelas (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 15:45 | Choked by Red Tape? The Political Economy of Wasteful Trade Barriers ( abstract ) |
17:30-17:45Coffee Break
17:45-19:30 Session 10A: Minicurso FIPE (aula 1)
Chair:
Dimitri Szerman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 17:45 | Introduction to Data Science for Economists: Harvesting data from the Web ( abstract ) |
17:45-19:30 Session 10B: Sessão Especial SBE
Chair:
Gabriel Ulyssea (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Ipê II
| 17:45 | Measuring Global Poverty ( abstract ) |
Thursday, December 15th
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08:30-10:15 Session 11A: Crime
Chair:
Breno Ramos Sampaio (UFPE, Brazil)
Location: Ipê II
| 08:30 | Internet diffusion: time online prevents crime? ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Local Labor Market Conditions and Crime: Evidence From The Brazilian Trade Liberalization ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Ambient Light and Homicides ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 11B: Sessão Especial Fundação Lemann
Uma análise sobre as medidas do Saeb: o que sabemos e o que não sabemos sobre a qualidade do sistema educacional a partir dos dados das avaliações?
Chair:
Ernesto Martins Faria (Fundação Lemann, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 08:30 | presenters ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 11C: Development II
Chair:
Enlinson Mattos (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 08:30 | Education quality and non-convergence ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Economic growth and complementarity between stages of human capital ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Heterogeneous Present-bias and Optimal Taxation of Health and Education ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 11D: Sessão Especial Opportunity: Prêmio SBE Finanças
Chair:
Marco Bonomo (Insper, Brazil)
Discussants:
Location: Cedro
| 08:30 | The Choice Channel of Financial Innovation ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Liquidity Runs ( abstract ) |
10:15-10:30Coffee Break
10:30-12:15 Session 12: Conferência SBE ANPEC: Keynote Lecture, Andrew F. Newman
.
Chair:
Ricardo Madeira (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Ballroom Cataratas I
| 10:30 | Loopholes and the Evolution of Organizations ( abstract ) |
12:15-13:45Lunch
13:45-15:30 Session 13A: Prêmio SBE Econometria
Chair:
Nathalie Gimenes (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Discussants:
Nathalie Gimenes (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro (UFRJ, Brazil)
Marcelo Sant'Anna (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro (UFRJ, Brazil)
Marcelo Sant'Anna (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Alecrim
| 13:45 | Measurement Errors in Quantile Regression Models ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 13B: Sessão Especial Instituto Ayrton Senna
Inaf 2015: As competências socioemocionais como um antídoto para a desigualdade de oportunidades
Chair:
Diana Coutinho (Instituto Ayrton Senna, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 13:45 | presenters ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 13C: Monetary Economics
Chair:
Marcel Ribeiro (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Cedro
| 13:45 | Monetary Management under Exogenous Changes in the Money Supply: Theory and Evidence ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Monetary policy shocks, the sacrifice ratio and fiscal rules ( abstract ) |
| 14:35 | Monetary policy credibility and the comovement between stock returns and inflation ( abstract ) |
| 15:00 | Inflation target expectations, transparency and effectiveness of monetary policy ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 13D: Economics and Politics II
Chair:
Bruno Ottoni (FGV/IBRE, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 13:45 | Compulsory Voting and TV News Consumption: Evidence from Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Education, Information Consumption and Strategic Voting:Evidence from Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 14:35 | A Recompensa nas Urnas Resultante do Controle da Violência: Evidência da Política de Pacificação ( abstract ) |
13:45-15:30 Session 13E: Sessão Especial Bradesco: Prêmio SBE Teoria
Chair:
Alexandre B. Cunha (UFRJ, Brazil)
Discussants:
Location: Ipê II
| 13:45 | Optimal Mirrleesian Taxation in Non-competitive Labor Markets ( abstract ) |
| 14:10 | Public versus Secret Voting in Committees ( abstract ) |
15:45-17:30 Session 14A: Prêmio SBE Macro Aplicada
Chair:
Mauro Rodrigues (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Discussants:
Location: Cedro
| 15:45 | FX Interventions in Brazil: A Synthetic Control Approach ( abstract ) |
| 16:10 | Trade Policy in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model ( abstract ) |
15:45-17:30 Session 14B: Sessão Especial FGV-CLEAR & OVE-IDB
Produtividade das Firmas Brasileiras: Avaliação de Programas e Perspectivas
Chair:
Lycia Lima (FGV/EESP, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 15:45 | presenters ( abstract ) |
15:45-17:30 Session 14C: Sessão Especial Instituto Unibanco
Pesquisa econômica translacional para o aprimoramento de políticas públicas educacionais
Chair:
Mirela de Carvalho (Instituto Unibanco, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 15:45 | presenters ( abstract ) |
15:45-17:30 Session 14D: Inference
Chair:
Nathalie Gimenes (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Alecrim
| 15:45 | Inference in Differences-in-Differences with Few Treated Groups and Heteroskedasticity ( abstract ) |
| 16:10 | Revisiting the Synthetic Control Estimator ( abstract ) |
| 16:35 | Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls ( abstract ) |
15:45-17:30 Session 14E: Applied Economics I
Chair:
Flávia Chein (UFJF, Brazil)
Location: Ipê II
| 15:45 | Local Socioeconomic Impacts of Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants ( abstract ) |
| 16:10 | Measurement of the regional economic impact of aid projects in Uganda using satellite data ( abstract ) |
| 16:35 | Roads, Urbanization and Development: some empirical evidences from Brazilian experience ( abstract ) |
17:30-17:45Coffee Break
17:45-19:30 Session 15A: Minicurso FIPE (aula 2)
Chair:
Dimitri Szerman (PUC-Rio, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 17:45 | Introduction to Data Science for Economists: Harvesting data from the Web ( abstract ) |
17:45-19:30 Session 15B: Sessão Especial IPEA
Gasto Tributário: Diagnóstico e Avaliação
Chair:
Daniel Da Mata (IPEA, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 17:45 | Gastos Tributários da União ( abstract ) |
| 18:10 | Gastos Tributários: Legislação e Evolução ( abstract ) |
| 19:55 | Gastos Tributários e Federalismo ( abstract ) |
| 20:20 | Do Lower Taxes Reduce Informality? Evidence from Brazil ( abstract ) |
19:30-20:00 Session 16: Cerimônia de entrega dos prêmios SBE 2016
Location: Araucária
20:00-21:30 Session 17: Assembleia Geral Ordinária (2ª convocação)
Location: Araucária
Friday, December 16th
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08:30-10:15 Session 18A: Industrial Organization
Chair:
Marcelo Sant'Anna (FGV/EPGE, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 08:30 | Elasticidade Preço da Demanda Industrial de Energia Elétrica no Brasil ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Quantile regression methods for fi
rst-price auction: a signal approach ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Empirical Analysis of Scoring Auctions for Oil and Gas Leases ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 18B: Labor II
Chair:
Andrea Lepine (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 08:30 | Efeitos adversos da legislação do seguro-desemprego: Evidência sobre o Brasil. ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Social Promotion in Primary School: Immediate and Cumulated Effects on Attainment ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Impacto do Programa Mais Educação em indicadores educacionais. ( abstract ) |
| 09:45 | Teacher Incentives and Student Performance: Evidence from Brazil ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 18C: Applied Economics II
Chair:
Guilherme Amorim (UFPE, Brazil)
Location: Alecrim
| 08:30 | Measuring Spillovers in a Decentralized Health System ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge in Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Sleep Deprivation and Diabetes: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach ( abstract ) |
08:30-10:15 Session 18D: Macroeconomic Theory
Chair:
Rodrigo Raad (UFMG, Brazil)
Location: Cedro
| 08:30 | Bargained Haircuts and Debt Policy Implications ( abstract ) |
| 08:55 | Capital Taxation in a Many-Sector Economy ( abstract ) |
| 09:20 | Recursive Equilibrium and Optimal Taxation ( abstract ) |
10:15-10:30Coffee Break
10:30-12:15 Session 19A: Sessão Especial Instituto Escolhas
Economia e Meio Ambiente
Chair:
Rudi Rocha (UFRJ, Brazil)
Location: Ipê II
| 10:30 | Lançamento do Programa de bolsas da Cátedra Economia e Meio Ambiente ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | To Mitigate or Not to Mitigate: The Price Elasticity of Pro-Environmental Behavior ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | Measuring the Effects of Priority Status on Deforestation in the Amazon ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 19B: Education
Chair:
Ana Ribeiro (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Ipê I
| 10:30 | Efeito do Ensino Técnico Profissionalizante nos salários: uma avaliação com controle das habilidades cognitivas dos trabalhadores ao final do ensino médio ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | Peer Effects and Academic Performance in Higher Education: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | Affirmative Action Outcomes: Evidence from a Law School in Brazil ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 19C: Macroeconomics II
Chair:
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia (University of Warwick, United Kingdom)
Location: Cedro
| 10:30 | Judicial indicators and business cycles in Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | Germany 7-1 Brazil: A Political Shock ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | State-controlled companies and political risk: Evidence from the 2014 Brazilian election ( abstract ) |
| 11:45 | News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 19D: Finance II
Chair:
Elias Cavalcante Filho (FEA/USP, Brazil)
Location: Araucária
| 10:30 | Payout decisions and families: a study of Brazilian listed firms ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | The Role of Taxes and the Interdependence Among Corporate Financial Policies: Evidence from a Natural Experiment ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | Risk premia estimation in Brazil: wait until 2041 ( abstract ) |
10:30-12:15 Session 19E: Estimation and Forecasting
Chair:
Márcio Laurini (FEA-RP/USP, Brazil)
Location: Alecrim
| 10:30 | Economically motivated forecast combinations ( abstract ) |
| 10:55 | Real-time inflation forecasting with high-dimensional models: The case of Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 11:20 | The Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Ethanol/Gasoline Price Ratio in Brazil ( abstract ) |
| 11:45 | Full Bayesian inference for Asymmetric GARCH models with Student-t Innovations ( abstract ) |
12:15-13:45Lunch