PROGRAM
Days: Wednesday, January 21st Thursday, January 22nd Friday, January 23rd
Wednesday, January 21st
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
14:00-14:30 Session 1: Welcome address
Chairs: Giuseppe Cavaliere and Giampiero M. Gallo
Location: Salone Genovesi
14:30-16:10 Session 2A: STOCK PRICES
Chair: Juri Marcucci
Location: Salone Genovesi
14:30 | Network Connectivity and Systematic Risk (abstract) |
14:55 | Index Stock Return Market Expectations Implied from Options (abstract) |
15:20 | Herd Behavior in Global Stock Markets During the Recent Crises: Are There More Asymmetries? (abstract) |
15:45 | Volatility risk premia and financial connectedness (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 2B: GLOBALIZATION AND SPILLOVERS
Chair: Camilla Mastromarco
Location: Globus
14:30 | An Estimate of the Degree of Interconnectedness between European Regions: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach (abstract) |
14:55 | Disentangling Spillovers from Correlated Confounders using GMM (abstract) |
15:20 | Inequality Accounting for a Large Cross-Section of Countries (abstract) |
15:45 | Global Dependence and Productivity Catching-up: A Conditional Nonparametric World Frontier Analysis (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 2C: CO-INTEGRATION
Chair: Massimo Franchi
Location: Auditorium
14:30 | IDENTIFICATION CONDITIONS IN SIMULTANEOUS SYSTEMS OF COINTEGRATING EQUATIONS OF HIGHER ORDER (abstract) |
14:55 | Can you do the wrong thing and still be right? Hypothesis Testing in I(2) and near-I(2) cointegrated VARs (abstract) |
15:20 | Determining the Co-integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models of Unknown Order (abstract) |
15:45 | A small simulation study on the robustness of cointegration methods against local to unity alternatives (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 2D: PANEL DATA
Chair: Giorgio Calzolari
Location: Sala Gatto
14:30 | PANICCA – PANIC on cross-section averages (abstract) |
14:55 | Multilateral Resistance and the Euro Effects on Trade Flows (abstract) |
15:20 | Testing for state dependence in binary panel data with individual covariates by a modified quadratic exponential model (abstract) |
15:45 | Improving GMM efficiency in dynamic models for panel data with mean stationarity (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 3A: VOLATILITY I
Chair: Gianluca Cubadda
Location: Salone Genovesi
16:40 | Multivariate Volatility Estimation by Markov Chain Methods (abstract) |
17:05 | Copula–based Specification of Vector MEMs (abstract) |
17:30 | Multi-jumps (abstract) |
17:55 | A Vector Heterogeneous Autoregressive Index Model for Realized Volatilities (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 3B: GEOGRAPHY AND SPATIAL ECONOMICS
Chair: Stefano Fachin
Location: Globus
16:40 | Green Cars Adoption and the Geography of Supply of Alternative Fuels (abstract) |
17:05 | The effect of local taxes on firm performance: evidence from geo referenced data (abstract) |
17:30 | Local government cooperation at work: A control function approach (abstract) |
17:55 | Industrial growth and spatial spillovers in 19th century Italy (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 3C: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Chair: Davide Raggi
Location: Capodorso
16:40 | Trilemma, not Dilemma: Financial Globalisation and Monetary Policy Effectiveness (abstract) |
17:05 | Risk Diversification, Financial Integration and Foreign Investors' Profile (abstract) |
17:30 | Judiciary efficiency and trade in tasks (abstract) |
17:55 | Higher order beliefs and the dynamics of exchange rates (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 3D: EXPERIMENTS AND POLICY EVALUATION
Chair: Tiziano Arduini
Location: Auditorium
16:40 | Female employment and pre-kindergarten: on the unintended effects of an Italian reform (abstract) |
17:05 | An evaluation of the policies on repayment of Government's trade debt in Italy (abstract) |
17:30 | The ban of Batasuna: effects on Local Government Spending (abstract) |
17:55 | Identication and Estimation of Outcome Response with Heterogeneous Treatment Externalities (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 3E: VAR MODELS
Chair: Riccardo Lucchetti
Location: Sala Gatto
16:40 | Granger-Causal Priority and Choice of Variables in Vector Autoregressions (abstract) |
17:05 | Marginal distribution and higher-order moments in Markov-switching VAR models (abstract) |
17:30 | Bayesian Sparse Graphical Multivariate Autoregressions (abstract) |
17:55 | Structure-based SVAR identification (abstract) |
Thursday, January 22nd
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
08:50-10:30 Session 4A: DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS
Chair: Gabriele Fiorentini
Location: Salone Genovesi
08:50 | EIGENVALUE RATIO ESTIMATORS FOR THE NUMBER OF DYNAMIC FACTORS (abstract) |
09:15 | A Dynamic Test of Conditional Factor Models (abstract) |
09:40 | A spectral EM algorithm for dynamic factor models (abstract) |
10:05 | A dynamic factor model of health and medical treatment (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 4B: HEAVY TAILS
Chair: Giuseppe Storti
Location: Globus
08:50 | Testing for (in)finite moments (abstract) |
09:15 | Sieve-Based Inference for Infinite-Variance Stationary Linear Processes (abstract) |
09:40 | Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails (abstract) |
10:05 | Least squares estimation for GARCH (1,1) model with heavy tailed errors (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 4C: INCENTIVES
Chair: Daniele Checchi
Location: Capodorso
08:50 | The Adverse Incentive Effects of Heterogeneity in Tournaments-Empirical Evidence from The German Bundesliga (abstract) |
09:15 | Should I Stay or Should I go? Sibling spillover effects in household formation (abstract) |
09:40 | Publish or Perish? Incentives and Careers in Italian Academia (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 4D: EMPIRICAL MACROECONOMICS 1
Chair: Piergiorgio Alessandri
Location: Sala Gatto
08:50 | Expectation-Driven Cycles: Time-varying Effects (abstract) |
09:15 | Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory (abstract) |
09:40 | Sentiments in the Times of Crisis (abstract) |
10:05 | Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 4E: TRADE AND EXPORT
Chair: Luigi Benfratello
Location: Auditorium
08:50 | Family Firms, Corporate Governance, and Export (abstract) |
09:15 | Trade Liberalization and Domestic Suppliers: Evidence from Chile (abstract) |
09:40 | Islands as 'Bad Geography' - Insularity, Connectedness, Trade Costs and Trade (abstract) |
10:05 | Innovative capacity and export performance: Exploring heterogeneity along the export intensity distribution (abstract) |
11:00-13:00 Session 5: PLENARY SESSION - ICEEE 6th KEYNOTE TALKS
Chair: Giuseppe Cavaliere
Location: Salone Genovesi
11:00 | Consumption Network Effects (abstract) |
12:00 | Should we care about unemployment risk? (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 6A: VOLATILITY II
Chair: Massimiliano Caporin
Location: Salone Genovesi
14:30 | Forecasting crude oil volatility by GARCH-MIDAS model (abstract) |
14:55 | Whittle estimation of multivariate exponential volatility models (abstract) |
15:20 | A Time-varying Mixture Memory Multiplicative Error Model (abstract) |
15:45 | Dynamic Principal Components: a New Class of Multivariate GARCH Models (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 6B: SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS
Chair: Federico Martellosio
Location: Globus
14:30 | Indirect Inference in Spatial Autoregression (abstract) |
14:55 | Reconciling ML and TSLS Estimators in Spatial Models (abstract) |
15:20 | A spatial econometric model for productivity and innovation in the manufacturing industry: the role played by geographical and sectorial distances between firms (abstract) |
15:45 | Adjusted MLE for the Spatial Autoregressive Parameter (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 6C: EMPIRICAL MACROECONOMICS II
Chair: Maria Elena Bontempi
Location: Sala Gatto
14:30 | The financial and macroeconomic effects of the OMT announcements (abstract) |
14:55 | ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics (abstract) |
15:20 | The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Evidence from a New Testing Approach (abstract) |
15:45 | The empirical assessment of debt ratio dynamics in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 6D: DISCRETE CHOICE
Chair: Valentina Corradi
Location: Capodorso
14:30 | Does the letter matter (and for everyone)? Quasi-experimental evidence on the effects of home invitation on mammography uptake (abstract) |
14:55 | Who should be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice (abstract) |
15:20 | Nonparametric Welfare Analysis for Discrete Choice (abstract) |
15:45 | Modelling Heaped Duration: An Application to Neonatal Mortality (abstract) |
14:30-16:10 Session 6E: LARGE DIMENSIONAL MODELS AND DATASETS
Chair: Anna Simoni
Location: Auditorium
14:30 | How to measure the quality of financial tweets (abstract) |
14:55 | Clustering complex time series databases by using periodical components (abstract) |
15:20 | Gaussian processes and Bayesian moment estimation (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 7A: HEALTH ECONOMICS
Chair: Giuseppe Moscelli
Location: Globus
16:40 | Free patient mobility is not a free lunch. Lessons from a decentralised NHS. (abstract) |
17:05 | War and Obesity: The Role of Eating Habits (abstract) |
17:30 | The Effects of Hospital Competition and Patient Choice on Mortality for AMI, Hip Fracture and Stroke Patients (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 7B: EDUCATION
Chair: Geert Mesters
Location: Capodorso
16:40 | Barriers to College Investment and Aggregate Productivity (abstract) |
17:05 | Is it What You Know or What you Do?The effect of teachers’ digital skills and practices on student achievement. (abstract) |
17:30 | Beyond the Average: Peer Heterogeneity and Intergenerational Transmission of Education (abstract) |
17:55 | Childhood Skills, Signals and Dynamic Contagion in Socioeconomic Adulthood Outcomes for Disadvantaged Youth (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 7C: UNIT ROOTS AND CO-INTEGRATED MODELS
Chair: Paolo Paruolo
Location: Sala Gatto
16:40 | Optimal hedging with the cointegrated vector autoregressive model (abstract) |
17:05 | Adaptive testing for a unit root with nonstationary volatility (abstract) |
17:30 | Monitoring Stationarity and Cointegration (abstract) |
17:55 | Inversion of analytic matrix functions by local rank factorization (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 7D: RISK MEASUREMENT
Chair: Walter Distaso
Location: Salone Genovesi
16:40 | Tail Risk and the Macroeconomy (abstract) |
17:05 | Fund Ratings: The method reconsidered (abstract) |
17:30 | The Impact of Uncertainty in the Oil and Gold Market on the Cross-Section of Stock Returns (abstract) |
17:55 | Tailing Tail Risk in the Hedge Fund Industry (abstract) |
16:40-18:20 Session 7E: LABOUR AND WAGES
Chair: Francesco Furlanetto
Location: Auditorium
16:40 | Voluntary work and wages (abstract) |
17:05 | The wage premiumto supervision: evidence from an international comparison (abstract) |
17:30 | Finite mixture modeling of unemployment duration (abstract) |
17:55 | Labor supply factors and economic fluctuations (abstract) |
Friday, January 23rd
View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview
08:50-10:30 Session 8A: FORECASTING METHODS
Chair: Barbara Rossi
Location: Globus
08:50 | Density forecasts with MIDAS models (abstract) |
09:15 | Testing and Selecting Local Proper Scoring Rules (abstract) |
09:40 | Short-term forecasting with mixed-frequency data: A MIDASSO approach (abstract) |
10:05 | Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 8B: TOPICS IN MICROECONOMICS
Chair: Mario Padula
Location: Salone Genovesi
08:50 | When the baby cries at night. Inelastic buyers in non-competitive markets (abstract) |
09:15 | Financial Risk Taste, Business Cycles and Perceived Risk Exposure (abstract) |
09:40 | The relationship between panel and synthetic control estimators of the effect of civil war. (abstract) |
10:05 | The Consumption and Wealth Effects of an Unanticipated Change in Lifetime Resources (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 8C: STRUCTURAL VAR
Chair: Emanuele Bacchiocchi
Location: Sala Gatto
08:50 | Identifying Noise Shocks: a VAR with Data Revisions (abstract) |
09:15 | Misspecification and Quasi-Rational Expectations in DSGE models (abstract) |
09:40 | Bayesian Graphical Models for Structural Vector Autoregressive Processes (abstract) |
10:05 | Identification in Structural Vector Autoregressive models with structural changes, with an application to U.S. monetary policy (abstract) |
08:50-10:30 Session 8D: CREDIT MARKETS
Chair: Claudia Pigini
Location: Auditorium
08:50 | Spillover effects of credit demand and supply shocks in the EU countries: Evidence from a structural GVAR (abstract) |
09:15 | State dependence in access to credit (abstract) |
09:40 | Does credit crunch investment down? New evidence on the real effects of the bank-lending channel. (abstract) |
11:00-12:40 Session 9A: DIFF-IN-DIFF
Chair: Sergio Destefanis
Location: Sala Gatto
11:00 | Shake me the money! (abstract) |
11:25 | Does housing tenure affect the response of claimants to stricter job search requirements? Evidence from the UK Jobseeker's Allowance (abstract) |
11:50 | The Impact of Markup Regulation on Prices (abstract) |
12:15 | Regulation and the Crisis: Assessing Bank Efficiency through a Difference-in-Difference Approach (abstract) |
11:00-12:40 Session 9B: TOPICS IN TIME SERIES
Chair: Fabrizio Iacone
Location: Globus
11:00 | Neglected serial correlation tests in UCARIMA models (abstract) |
11:25 | A General Theory of Rank Testing (abstract) |
11:50 | Generalised Linear Cepstral Models for the Spectrum of a Time Series (abstract) |
12:15 | Autocorrelation robust inference using the Daniell kernel with
fixed bandwidth (abstract) |
11:00-12:40 Session 9C: MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS
Chair: Roberto Golinelli
Location: Salone Genovesi
11:00 | Modeling and Forecasting Corporate Default Counts with Poisson Intensity AR-X (PARX) Models (abstract) |
11:25 | Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations (abstract) |
11:50 | Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models (abstract) |
12:15 | Inflation Expectations and the Two Forms of Inattentiveness (abstract) |
11:00-12:40 Session 9D: MIGRATION
Chair: Cristian Bartolucci
Location: Capodorso
11:00 | Mr. Rossi, Mr. Hu and Politics: The Role of Immigration in Shaping Natives’ Political Preferences (abstract) |
11:25 | Average partial effects in multivariate probit models with an application to immigrants' ethnic identity and economic performance (abstract) |
11:50 | Length of stay in the host country and educational achievement of immigrant students: the Italian case (abstract) |
12:15 | “Who Migrates and Why? Evidence from Italian Administrative Data.” (abstract) |
11:00-12:40 Session 9E: QUANTILE METHODS AND APPLICATIONS
Chair: Fabio Busetti
Location: Auditorium
11:00 | Distributional vs. quantile regression (abstract) |
11:25 | Dynamic Model Averaging for Quantile Regression (abstract) |
11:50 | Lifetime Income Inequality: quantile treatment effect of retirement on the distribution of lifetime income. (abstract) |
12:15 | Quantile aggregation of density forecasts (abstract) |
12:40-13:00 Session 10: Award ceremony of Carlo Giannini Prize and Labour Prize
Chairs: Giuseppe Cavaliere and Giampiero M. Gallo
Location: Salone Genovesi