Tags:Alternative fuels, CO2 emissions, IMO target, International shipping and Shipping demand
Abstract:
International shipping contributes approximately 2% of global CO2 emissions. The IMO has established targets to reduce CO2 intensity by 40% in 2030 and overall GHG emissions by at least 50% by 2050. Achieving these targets requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between shipping demand, supply, and emissions and the interconnection with the global economy. This paper evaluates current studies on the future of international maritime shipping, focusing on demand, supply, and emissions predictions. Projections indicate a significant increase in seaborne trade demand by 2035 and 2050, ranging from 22% to 106% and 40% to 230%, respectively, compared to 2020. Fuels, such as biofuels, hydrogen, and ammonia, are expected to have varying adoption rates. CO2 emissions are estimated to range from 0.8 to 2.6 GtCO2/year by 2050, with some projections suggesting the possibility of achieving net-zero emissions. Among different methods, Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are considered suitable for evaluating the sector's future due to their ability to capture complex cross-sectoral interactions, although they have limitations. Future research should focus on refining techno-economic assessments to incorporate the latest developments in shipping technology, fuel options, and policy frameworks, encompassing diverse vessel types and fuels.
Future of International Shipping: a Review of Projections and Methodologies of Supply, Demand, and Emissions in the Maritime Shipping Sector