Tags:Adaptive Metropolis, Bayesian computation, Bayesian Model Averaging, Hypotesis test construction, limb soft tissue sarcomas, metropolis adjusted, Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm, Omics data, posterior probability, prognostic accuracy, Shrinkage Prior in Survival Analysis, soft tissue sarcomas and Survival Analysis
Abstract:
The objective is to construct a prognostic index that incorporates radiomic information with the validated prognostic index (Sarculator) provided by the Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano. A Bayesian approach was employed, utilising a Weibull model. Vague prior distributions were elicited for the shape parameter, the intercept, and the Sarculator. A multivariate Gaussian prior was elicited for the 2,144 radiomic parameters, incorporating a penalty factor, λ. A total of 100 penalty values were considered. A new, ad hoc adaptive version of the pre-conditioned Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (A-MALA) was proposed for sampling. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to yield a composite of the 100 models. A Bayesian hypothesis test was constructed to evaluate the superiority of the BMA prognostic index relative to the Sarculator. The five-year AUC posterior mean was 0.809, with a 95% credible interval (CI) of (0.768, 0.851). The posterior mean of the C-index was 0.804 (95% CI, 0.764, 0.845) for the BMA, 0.743 (95% CI, 0.713, 0.771) for the best model log λ = 10.39 and 0.735 (95% CI, 0.674, 0.761) for the Sarculator. The results suggest that radiomic variables should be included in the model.
A-MALA: a New Adaptive Version of the Metropolis Adjusted Langevin Algorithm for Survival Prediction in a High-Dimensional Framework