Tags:Atmospheric Icing, Climate change, Disaster Management, Power Line, Risk Assessment and Uncertainty
Abstract:
Climate change will provide a lot of new challenges for infrastructure management where they need to deal with different sources of uncertainties. Most of the decisions regarding the operation, maintenance and safety analysis of infrastructures are based on historical data such as failure rate, repair rate etc. Climate change can affect the quality of historical data significantly. Even, some researchers point out, due to the associated uncertainties, the historical data cannot be used anymore in some cases. In practice, the historical data style has great value but needs to be analyzed considering all associated uncertainties. These uncertainties in broad categories can be grouped as Epistemic uncertainties, Ontological uncertainties, Aleatoric uncertainties, and Stochastic uncertainties. Icing and hazards can affect the infrastructure dramatically, especially in the cold region. Ice disaster management (IDM) has been developed to provide a systematic approach to IDM in the Arctic. It includes preparedness, response, recovery, learning, risk assessment, and prevention. Using a systematic literature review this paper analyzes the relevant research on a different part of the disaster management (DM) cycle regarding ice disasters and investigates gaps in uncertainties analysis in each of the different steps of IDM. Finally, the paper provides a guideline to handle different uncertainties in practice.
Uncertainty Management at Atmospheric Icing Management in Power Lines