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![]() Title:Leveraging Exogenous Regressors in Demand Forecasting Conference:ITISE2025 Tags:ARIMA, Demand Forecasting, Exogenous Regressors, Forecasting at Scale and Multivariate Forecasting Abstract: Demand forecasting is different from traditional forecasting because it is a process of forecasting multiple time series collectively. It is challenging to implement models that can generalize and perform well with forecasting many time series altogether based on accuracy and scalability. Moreover, there can be external influences like holidays, disasters, promotions, etc. creating drifts and structural breaks, making accurate demand forecasting a challenge. Again, these external features used for multivariate forecasting often worsens the prediction accuracy because of having more unknowns into the forecasting process. This paper attempts to explore effective ways of leveraging the exogenous regressors to surpass the accuracy of univariate approach by creating synthetic scenarios to understand the model and regressors performances. The paper finds that the forecastability of the correlated external features plays a big role in determining if it would improve or worsen accuracy for models like ARIMA, yet even 100\% accurately forecasted extra regressors sometimes fail to surpass their univariate predictive accuracy. The findings are replicated in cases like forecasting weekly docked bike demand per station each hour where the multivariate approach outperformed the univariate by forecasting the regressors with Bi-LSTM and using predicted values for forecasting the target demand with ARIMA Leveraging Exogenous Regressors in Demand Forecasting ![]() Leveraging Exogenous Regressors in Demand Forecasting | ||||
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