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Situated on the treaty and traditional territory of the Mississauga (Michi Saagiig) Anishnaabeg, Trent University houses Canada’s first Indigenous Environmental Studies and Sciences program. Centered on the Otonabee River, it is the traditional “place at the end of the rapids” where peoples and ideas have come together since time immemorial. This provides a frame for this session which seeks to go beyond ‘Breaking Down Barriers between Statistics and Environmental Science' to break down barriers between western sciences and Indigenous sciences. Following the two-eyed seeing approach, this session will constellate and weave knowledge systems to meet the grand complexities of biodiversity loss, environmental, and climate change challenges that remain unmet through siloed scientific focal points.
Following the session talks, a sharing circle will be offered in lieu of a traditional panel of speakers to explore just protocols and avenues that action scientific knowledge.
(Invited Session) Environmental and ecological data sets are complex and, for statistical methods to be effective, the methods must account for the nature of the data. Two important areas are temporal-spatial modelling and functional data analysis. For statisticians, the questions considered are 1) how to account for surveys where yearly data are not collected uniformly at sites and extreme abundances occur (Rivest et al.); 2) the advantage of state-space models for population size and growth rates incorporating environmental effects (Hyman et al.); and 3) improved estimates of functional response with estimates of bias and variance (Di Batista et al.). The data sets are cod stocks, seagrass availability and blue crab populations, and Adriatic Sea warming and diversity profiles.
10:45 | PRESENTER: Tonio Di Battista ABSTRACT. In the ecological literature, there is broad consensus that the diversity profile is a useful tool for diversity evaluation. Since the diversity profile is a positive, decreasing, and convex curve, it is possible to cast the problem of its estimation into a constrained functional context. In this work, a functional design-based estimation of diversity profiles is considered by taking into account the constrained nature of the profile. Indeed, a naive direct application of the functional data analysis methodology can be misleading, both theoretically and practically. To tackle this issue, the constrained estimation problem is redefined into an unconstrained one by defining the diversity profile in terms of a differential equation. An approximation of the bias and the variance of the estimator is derived using the delta method. |
11:05 | Spatio-temporal Modeling of Fish Stocks in the Presence of Extreme Values PRESENTER: Louis-Paul Rivest ABSTRACT. The presentation focusses on the evolution of a cod stock (Gadus morhua L.) in the Gulf of St-Lawrence, Canada that has been monitored by trawl surveys for about 20 years. During that period, the survey area has not been covered uniformly by the sampled sites and one objective of this presentation is to investigate whether modern spatio-temporal statistical models can be used to correct the deficiencies of the sampling design thereby permitting a better understanding of the stock evolution over the period. The base model for abundance is a generalized Poisson regression with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process. Methods for fitting such a model to large samples will be discussed. The impact of large abundances, that cannot be accounted for by a standard Poisson-lognormal model, will also be investigated. Generalizations of the standard Poisson regression that account for such large values are proposed. The results of a simulation study comparing the prediction of the latent process at unobserved points for various specifications of the latent process are presented. |
11:25 | Modeling of Blue Crab Population Dynamics in the Chesapeake Bay: A State-Space Approach PRESENTER: A. Challen Hyman ABSTRACT. Nursery habitats are critical areas for the growth and survival of juvenile fish and invertebrates. These habitats provide conditions favorable for growth and survival of juveniles through abundant food resources and refugia, and can significantly enhance secondary production of an exploited population and fishery. The quality of nursery habitats therefore has a direct impact on the success of fisheries management and conservation efforts. However, although the importance of nursery habitats to marine and estuarine species has been documented widely, the quantitative value of these habitats in population dynamics at spatial and temporal scales relevant to management has only recently been emphasized and documented for a few species. Hence, a need exists to quantify the relative value of nursery habitats to population dynamics of exploited species. One particularly useful approach to population dynamics modeling is the use of state-space models in fisheries stock assessment where data can be noisy and incomplete. These models can provide more defensible estimates of population size and growth rates while also incorporating environmental effects, which can help inform management decisions and ensure the sustainability of fisheries resources. Using multiple sources of juvenile and adult indices of abundance, in concert with spatiotemporal data on seagrass (habitat) extent, we developed a 3-stage state-space model of the effects of seagrass habitat distribution on Chesapeake Bay blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) population dynamics. We found that seagrass availability positively influenced the carrying capacity of blue crab populations, and as a result the long-term maximum sustainable yields varied considerably with seagrass aerial extent. Taken together, our results indicate that management action should consider seagrass availability within blue crab population dynamics models to set more realistic harvest and seagrass conservation targets. |