ABSTRACT. This study examines the relationship between campaign donations and lobbying, utilizing a comprehensive dataset to track firms' economic and political engagements. I test the hypothesis that firms use electoral campaign financing as an insurance strategy using an event study framework. My results show that firms that did not finance the electoral campaign increased their lobbying expenditures by 47% following the unexpected election of Donald Trump in 2016, in contrast to the non-reactive behavior observed after Obama's 2012 election. Additional analyses confirm the central hypothesis, indicating that firms adjust their lobbying based on electoral outcomes. The study also incorporates a heterogeneity analysis using public procurement data to understand how firm revenue dependencies with the public sector affect the decision to increase lobbying expenditure.

ABSTRACT. Designations promoted by UNESCO programs and conventions have been increasingly recognized as tools for safeguarding and enhancing the cultural, environmental, identity, and creative value of territorial resources as local public goods and promote the coordination and collective action of local stakeholders. In this article, by highlighting how different types of UNESCO designations operate within distinct institutional frameworks, but share complementaries in their objectives and scope, we explore how cultural economic analytical tools can provide insights into the phenomenon of multiple UNESCO designations. First, drawing on a novel database at the European level, the paper explores for the first time regional patterns of multiple UNESCO designations and how these are associated to tourism-related characteristics. Second, we discuss how a cultural economic perspective, and in particular the notion of cultural district, can open new research paths to identify enabling factors and constraints at regional level for fostering synergies between different UNESCO designations for addressing local development.

ABSTRACT. The European Fiscal Framework is grounded in the concept of the cyclically adjusted budget balance, which aims to allow the activation of automatic stabilisers during times of crisis while ensuring the sustainability of public finances. The pro-cyclical bias embedded in this framework, stemming from the methodology used to calculate the cyclically adjusted balance, has been widely discussed in the economic literature. This paper provides a rigorous theoretical explanation of the mechanism behind this undesirable distortion and offers, for the first time, an exact empirical estimation of the magnitude of the pro-cyclical bias. It also anticipates the major challenges European policymakers will face in implementing the reformed version of the Stability and Growth Pact amid rising defence spending.

ABSTRACT. This paper contributes to the emerging field of empirical research on the interplay between corruption and disasters, focusing on the Italian case, due to its high exposure to seismic events, the significant heterogeneity in local administrative capacity, and the historical prevalence of corruption vulnerabilities in public procurement processes. The specific gap this paper addresses concerns the potential intensification of threshold manipulation behavior in the wake of disasters. The empirical analysis centers on a case study involving 239 municipalities, of which 75 were directly affected by the seismic events and 164 serve as matched controls. These municipalities differ in their exposure to the disaster but are otherwise comparable in terms of key demographic and fiscal characteristics. The earthquakes triggered an emergency procurement regime that raised the regulatory thresholds under which simplified procedures could be applied—specifically, up to €200,000. We leverage this regulatory change to examine whether treated municipalities adapted their procurement strategies by systematically allocating contracts just below the emergency threshold, a behavior that would be consistent with strategic circumvention of oversight requirements. By comparing treated and untreated municipalities across pre- and post-disaster periods, the analysis identifies potential shifts in procurement behavior attributable to institutional responses to the disaster.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the economic effects of the earthquakes that occurred in 2009 (L’Aquila), 2012 (Emilia-Romagna), and 2016 (Central Italy) on the labor markets in the affected municipalities, using a difference-in-differences with multiple periods approach. Findings show that the effects vary based on the level of destructiveness of the earthquake. Also, the coordination (failure) across administrative levels contributed decisively to the timely and efficient implementation of recovery measures.

ABSTRACT. This paper models theoretically, and tests empirically the hypothesis that the locational choice of a “public bad” within a multi-tiered structure of government (a facility providing widespread benefits throughout the federation but inflicting damage to the locality hosting it) can be driven by strategic electoral considerations exploiting the heterogeneous migration responses to the location of the public bad by voters of different ideologies - a sort of mobility-based “gerrymandering”. As long as the average utility loss from residing close to the public bad is larger for progressive voters than it is for conservative voters, conservative and progressive central governments will pursue opposite “cracking” strategies, the former locating the public bad in an electorally tight region to induce an exit of progressive voters and gain the region to the conservative party, the latter attempting to spread progressive voters out towards electorally tight regions. An application to waste treatment plant locations across Italian municipalities returns evidence in support of the model’s main hypothesis.

ABSTRACT. We analyse both theoretically and empirically the effect of hospital mergers on waiting times in healthcare markets where prices are fixed. Using a spatial modelling framework where patients choose provider based on travelling distance and waiting times, we show that the effect is theoretically ambiguous. In the presence of cost synergies, the scope for lower waiting times as a result of the merger is larger if the hospitals are more profit-oriented. This result is arguably confirmed by our empirical analysis, which is based on difference-in-difference estimations using a long panel of data on hospital merger in the English National Health Service (NHS). While we find that hospital mergers lead to higher waiting times on average, we also show that the effects of a merger on waiting times crucially rely on a legal status that can reasonably be linked to the degree of profit-orientation. Whereas hospital mergers involving Foundation Trusts tend to reduce waiting times, the corresponding effect of mergers involving hospitals without this legal status tends to go in the opposite direction.

ABSTRACT. This paper studies the impact of two policy interventions on scientific research productivity in a major private Italian hospital. The first is a performance-based monetary incentive program (a Management-By-Objectives, or MBO, bonus) introduced by the hospital management to reward non-academic physicians for publishing research. The second is the hospital’s recognition as an \textit{Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico} (IRCCS), which allowed its academic medical researchers to access dedicated public research funding. Using detailed panel data on physicians’ publications from 2012 to 2022, we employ several difference-in-differences strategies to evaluate each policy’s effect. We find that the introduction of monetary incentives did not lead to any significant impact on research output of the previously less research-active (non-academic) physicians, unless they were both treated by the MBO policy and had also access to IRCCS funding (``double-treated''). The IRCCS recognition caused instead a major boost in the publication rates of academic doctors and Medical Directors affected by both policies. We also assess the impact of such policies on the research quality of the hospital, by accounting for citations. We document increased cross-collaboration between the monetary-incentivized groups, indicating the emergence of knowledge spillovers; however, such increase was quite substantial for the non-academic doctors, whiled being modest for structured researchers in relative terms. Our findings might be able to inform the design of policies to incentivize research in healthcare organizations, highlighting the lower significance of performance-based incentives in absence of adequate research funding means.

ABSTRACT. The rapid evolution of medical technology and clinical practices has transformed healthcare systems worldwide, yet the impact of these advancements on healthcare demand remains unclear. Using detailed panel data on hospitalized patients in Denmark, we introduce the Hidden Markov Dropout Bivariate Poisson (HMDBPo) model to analyze how medical progress influences healthcare utilization and patient outcomes. Our model accounts for survival endogeneity through an informative dropout mechanism and captures unobserved time-varying heterogeneity. By leveraging variations in the timing of patients’ initial health shocks, we find that medical progress enhances survival and shifts hospital utilization toward outpatient care, reducing reliance on emergency visits. Additionally, our model uncovers latent patient groups based on frailty and healthcare usage patterns, offering valuable insights into optimizing resource allocation. These findings have important policy implications, highlighting the need for integrated outpatient care strategies and efficient healthcare resource management in an era of continuous medical innovation.

ABSTRACT. This paper examines the determinants of municipal-level allocations under Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) Mission 5, emphasizing the role of structural, demographic, socio-economic, and fiscal characteristics. Employing advanced spatial econometric methods—specifically a Spatial Autoregressive model with Autoregressive Disturbances (SARAR) incorporating provincial fixed effects—we find robust evidence that municipal vulnerabilities, particularly demographic imbalances and fiscal fragilities, significantly influence per capita funding allocations. The analysis further indicates that indicators related to social and socio-educational services consistently affect funding decisions, aligning with the NRRP’s stated redistributive objectives. Moreover, significant spatial spillovers are identified, demonstrating that municipalities tend to receive increased funding when neighboring jurisdictions also receive substantial support. These findings highlight the critical role of spatial interdependencies and suggest the necessity for incorporating both local structural factors and broader territorial dynamics into effective policy design aimed at fostering territorial equity.

ABSTRACT. Geopolitical tensions, which are historically high today, can produce relevant economic consequences through different channels, such as trade and industrial linkages, technology, and financial openness. This is particularly true in the European Union (EU), where most of countries are globally interconnected and play a central role in international trade, global value chains (GVCs) and financial markets. Although there has been a fast-growing interest in understanding the impact of geopolitical issues on the effectiveness of structural policies (Campos et al. 2023 a, b; Arbolino et al. 2025 a, b), the existing studies have mostly focused on the country dimension with few exemptions (Pinar et al. 2024; Poilly and Tripier 2025). This paper aims at filling this gap. We investigate how and to which extent global tensions, as measured by the Geopolitical Risk Index-GPR (Caldara and Iacoviello 2022), influence the impact of the cohesion policy in the EU regions (NUTS-2 level) over the years 1980-2024. Then, we disentangle the direct and indirect impact of GPR on cohesion policy, that is, we separate the effects arising in a single region from those deriving from the neighbours of it. In detail, we adopt a recent heterogeneous coefficient panel-time series model with spatial interactions and common factors (Chen et al. 2022) that is helpful to: calculate region-specific impact; distinguish between direct and indirect effects of GPR and cohesion policy. We also explore the main factors that can help understanding the uneven costs of GPR on the effectiveness of the EU funds for EU regions. Results, which are robust to several alternative specifications, are informative for policymaking and timely.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the role of religious mobilization in the emergence of early cooperative banking institutions in Italy. Using novel data on Franciscan preaching locations in the 15th century, we provide empirical evidence that preaching activity directly influenced the foundation of Monti di Piet`a, pioneering credit institutions designed to offer ethical lending alternatives. We also explore how religious mobilization interacted with external shocks, such as earthquakes, demonstrating that natural disasters acted as catalysts for collective action and institutional change. Furthermore, while preaching played a crucial role in the initial establishment of Monti, our findings suggest that the presence of local Franciscan Houses was the key driver of their long-term persistence. By shedding light on the intersection of religion, finance, and institutional development, our study offers fresh insights into the historical roots of cooperative finance and its lasting socio-economic impact.

ABSTRACT. We examine how voters decide to impose influence on others’ attitudes toward policies in the context of Pigouvian taxation. Data from a controlled laboratory experiment show that people in general are reluctant to stand up to persuade others. Among those who are willing, both tax supporters and objectors are equally likely to volunteer and are equally persuasive. As a result, the overall negative attitude against Pigouvian taxes persists. Additionally, more polarized views rather than information advantage increase the probability to stand up as first voters, irrespective of the direction of those views. These findings offer an explanation and suggestions to address the continuing low public support for social-welfare-enhancing tax policies.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the distributional effects of the Italian Superbonus pro- gram, a generous tax incentive that reimbursed up to 110% of household en- ergy retrofitting expenditures. Using data from the Italian Survey of Consumer Expectations, we analyze access to and utilization of the Superbonus across in- come groups. Our findings indicate that the program has been mildly regressive at the population level, with higher-income households more likely to undertake retrofitting and receive a greater share of public funds. However, among those who accessed public money to retrofit their homes, public support was distributed more evenly—suggesting a mildly progressive pattern among actual beneficiaries. This apparent paradox arises because lower-income households are both less likely to carry out retrofitting and, when they do, less likely to finance it through public subsidies. The analysis identifies key barriers that limit access for lower-income households, including lack of awareness, limited tax liability, and financing con- straints. These results have important implications for the design of future green transition policies, emphasizing the need for targeted support mechanisms to ensure equitable participation and maximize both environmental and social benefits.

ABSTRACT. The mitigation of climate change is a major challenge of the 21st century. Emission trading systems (ETS) are a widely used carbon pricing instrument to reach emission reduction goals. Regulated emissions under ETS have sharply increased in recent years, but emission rights have been mostly given out for free to firms to ensure international competitiveness. Recently, directly selling allowances to firms became the default option in large ETS. This paper examines the effect of selling emission allowances to firms instead of giving them out for free. We quantify the effect of the allocation mechanism of allowances in the EU ETS and its impact on the effectiveness of emission reductions and economic performance. Our empirical analysis utilizes a difference-in-difference (DiD) strategy based on a reform in the EU ETS. We show that emissions decrease significantly. However, the reduction is driven by changes in economic output, and emission intensity remains unaffected.

ABSTRACT. This paper examines how femicides reshape local public spending in Italy. Treating femicides as plausibly exogenous shocks and employing modern staggered difference-in-differences methods, we find that they lead to a significant increase in municipal security expenditures, particularly for local police. The intensity and timing of these adjustments depend on the nationality of the victim and perpetrator: when either is a foreign national, the increase in police spending is both larger and more persistent. These patterns suggest that femicides involving foreign individuals are more likely to be politicized and perceived as broader threats to public security, prompting stronger local responses. Our findings underscore how migration-related anxieties, political pressures, and institutional constraints interact to shape local fiscal policy in the aftermath of extreme acts of gender-based violence.

ABSTRACT. This paper highlights that public policies aimed at increasing infrastructural endowment at the local level often rely — due to legal and political constraints — on administrative jurisdictions to determine the location of new public service facilities, such as hospitals, schools, or eldercare centers. This often leads to a misallocation of infrastructural initiatives, which, on the one hand, may fail to fully exploit economies of scale in public service provision, and on the other hand, may not ensure adequate access to public services for citizens, regardless of where they reside. In the absence of a prior identification of optimal functional areas during the design phase of public interventions, the mobility of public service users across administrative boundaries can, to some extent, help mitigate these inefficiencies. This issue is discussed here with specific reference to the infrastructure investment program for new nursery schools currently underway in Italy as part of the NRRP. It is shown that even after the completion of new nursery school construction, while the overall national provision of nursery services would exceed the target coverage rate of 33 per cent, more than 60 per cent of Italian municipalities — particularly the smaller ones — would still fall short of this target. The main finding of this paper is that if inter-municipal mobility of preschool-aged children — from municipalities with insufficient coverage to neighboring ones with surplus availability — were allowed, this distributional imbalance could be largely corrected.

ABSTRACT. The tourist tax as an occupancy tax is the most popular way of taxing the accommodation sector. Despite its popularity, an analysis of the distributive implications of this tax is still missing in the literature. Using a large cross-section of accommodation facilities spread across Italian municipalities, we compare the distributional profile of the statutory taxes, increasing with the accommodation ranking, with the distributional profile of the effective taxes, defined as the shares of the statutory taxes on prices. A clear regressive pattern of the effective taxes emerges, which is consistent across municipalities. We identify several factors that drive the different level of regressivity, which include the share of foreign tourists, geographical clustering, the different degree of correlation between prices and accommodation ranking.

ABSTRACT. In public investment, the choice between bundled and unbundled contracts in Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) is crucial. This study examines this decision by introducing a bank that finances the project, considering liquidity shocks typical in PPPs. The results show that bundled contracts are preferable when significant moral hazard is present, as they allow for lower-cost incentives. However, bundling can be harmful if risk contagion exists among consortium firms. The study finds that high output after the first period increases both the probability of project continuation and the effort in the second period. These findings highlight the bank’s role in influencing PPP outcomes and the importance of financial contributions from the consortium.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the long-term impact of the large human capital shock to local communities caused by World War I (WWI) soldier losses on innovation in Britain. Using a novel dataset that links parish-level WWI mortality with patent data from 1895 to 1979, we compare innovation output in areas with high and low mortality. Difference-in-differences results reveal that higher WWI mortality led to a persistent decline in patenting, with a 10% increase in deaths reducing the likelihood of innovation by 0.7 percentage points and the likelihood of top innovations by three times as much. Effects are amplified by losing high-skill individuals, such as graduates from elite institutions or engineer officers, while they are mitigated by the presence of an ecosystem that encourages innovation, measured by proximity to universities or connective infrastructures. Our results highlight how human capital losses can reshape innovation landscapes for generations.

ABSTRACT. This paper examines the interaction between market power, environmental quality, and economic performance in a dynamic Cournot framework with endogenous firm entry and environmentally conscious consumers. We assess how fiscal instruments—namely, investment subsidies, pollution taxes, and abatement subsidies—can mitigate the trade-off between growth and sustainability. In contestable markets, we unveil a novel trade-off: larger firms may abate more pollution without reducing output, but at the risk of reinforcing market power and lowering competition and efficiency. We find that when abatement technologies are sufficiently advanced (i.e., low marginal abatement costs), greater consumer environmental awareness can trigger a virtuous cycle of investment, output, and abatement. In such settings, fiscal policies can enhance these effects—even under free entry—though consumers may bear higher prices and firm profits. Conversely, when abatement costs are high, only targeted subsidies reliably reduce pollution while supporting output. Importantly, free entry expands the policy space: under contestable markets, both pollution taxes and abatement subsidies are effective, unlike in fixed-entry regimes, where only the latter works unambiguously. Overall, the effectiveness of environmental policy depends on technological progress and market structure. Well-calibrated instruments, aligned with consumer preferences and competition levels, are crucial for reconciling environmental and economic goals.

ABSTRACT. In recent years, the growing support for far-right parties worldwide has highlighted how individuals increasingly respond to globalisation, migration flows, and technological insecurity with nationalist and exclusionary voting preferences. While voting behaviour is inherently individual, it is deeply influenced by context-specific conditions. This paper explores the relationship between migration flows and voting patterns. Specifically, it investigates the role of historical internal migration in shaping contemporary voting behaviour, using Italy as a case study. Italy’s significant internal migration from the South to the North during the Economic Boom provides a unique historical context for examining whether communities shaped by past integration experiences exhibit lower support for far-right, anti-immigration rhetoric. This research tests whether interpersonal contact under favourable conditions can reduce prejudice and foster intergroup cooperation. It hypothesises that communities with a history of internal migration have developed greater openness and adaptability, triggering a lower support for exclusionary political ideologies. By combining historical and contemporary data, this study aims to deepen our understanding of how past migration experiences influence current societal attitudes. It sheds light on the conditions that mitigate the appeal of extremist political ideologies, offering insights into fostering inclusivity in diverse communities.

ABSTRACT. This paper studies the relationship between economic inequality and political polarization in an electoral context where voters—classified as poor or rich, and cosmopolitan or nationalist—have preferences over redistributive and migration policies. Building on Besley and Persson (2021), I propose a different version of their theoretical model, in which the two parties competing to win the election do not employ symmetric strategies, and loyal voters of traditional left- and right-wing movements place different salience on migration. I then examine how an increase in economic inequality affects electoral competition: inequality leads both parties to cater more to nationalist voters; however, polarization between the two parties increases. The results reflect the outcomes of recent elections in Western democracies.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the impact of a salient environmental shock on populist electoral success by focusing on the so-called “Land of Fires”, a highly polluted area in Italy's Campania region known for its long-standing waste disposal crisis. We explore its connection to the rise of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), a widely recognized populist party that has incorporated environmental concerns into its platform since its inception, dedicating one of its five stars to the cause of ecological preservation. We build a novel and unique municipality-level panel dataset on Potentially Contaminated Sites (PCS) in Campania (2005-2013), and develop a measure of wind pollutant exposure at municipality level using high-frequency wind direction daily data from 47 monitoring stations (2001-2009). By leveraging plausibly exogenous variation in wind direction, we identify upwind PCS (i.e. sites that carry contamination towards the municipality administrative centroid, which serves as a proxy for the municipality’s electorate). We find a positive and highly significant effect of PCS exposure on M5S vote share at national elections, both in pooled specifications and in year-specific estimates for 2018 and 2022. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of exposure, and we examine buffer zones up to 50 km. We also show a long-run negative effect on voter turnout.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the effects of salary caps on top incomes in the Italian public administration, focusing on two major reforms introduced in 2011 and 2014 that progressively lowered the maximum allowable compensation for public managers. Using administrative data from INPS, including the Archivio Estratti Conto and Uniemens archives, the study constructs a sample of top earners—defined as those above the 99.5th percentile of the income distribution—and compares wage dynamics, retirement behaviour, sectoral transitions, and consultancy income across treated and control groups. The empirical strategy employs a difference-in-differences framework with individual fixed effects to estimate the causal impact of the salary caps. Results show that the 2014 reform significantly curbed wage growth among capped public employees, with evidence of increased early retirement and transitions to the private sector. The findings highlight the trade-offs involved in regulating executive compensation in the public sector and contribute to the broader literature on public sector pay and labour mobility.

ABSTRACT. According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.

ABSTRACT. In an incentivized survey with experimental elements involving 1,547 respondents across three Italian cities we exploit regional variation in background, language and diet to investigate the relationship between cultural identity, trust and cooperation. Respondents with relatives who originate in the north of Italy, and who share common cultural characteristics, contributed 15% more in a public goods game and displayed greater trust towards others, than respondents whose language and diet had cultural links to the south. However, self-reported identity, a mainstay of the survey literature, had no predictive power. This highlights the importance of identity, but only if measured appropriately.

ABSTRACT. Longer commuting times are known to have a detrimental effect on the subjective wellbeing and mental health of workers, but little is known about the impact longer commutes can have on their children. By exploiting exogenous shocks to commuting time and rich survey data from Understanding Society (UKHLS), a longitudinal study on a representative sample of households in the United Kingdom, this paper investigates the effect of changes in commuting time on the non-cognitive development of children. I find increases in maternal commuting have no effect on the non-cognitive development of children at age 3 and 5, but a negative impact on internalising behaviours at age 8; paternal commuting instead has no impact on the non-cognitive skills of children. I also offer some evidence on the potential mechanisms at play.

ABSTRACT. We document differences in late-life physical and mental health between individuals from advantaged or disadvantaged family backgrounds belonging to different birth cohorts and investigate whether and to what extent compulsory and post-compulsory education explain the health gap. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and apply an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method. We find that differences in private investments in education, measured as years of post-compulsory schooling, play a prominent role in explaining inequalities in late-life health differentials between individuals from advantaged and disadvantaged households for all the cohorts considered, whereas years of compulsory schooling do not appear to have a comparable effect.

ABSTRACT. The introduction of compulsory education (CE) reforms has been shown to improve both education and several economic outcomes, alongside the short-term health of cohorts exposed. However, the impact of CE on long-term inequality in key welfare measures remains unclear. Using data from 80 countries across birth cohorts from 1810 to 2000, this study investigates how these policies influence height inequality, a key marker of historical health and living conditions. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we document robust evidence that CE significantly reduces height inequality, with the effect size growing over time. Our preferred specification suggests that CE adoption influences height inequality, and the effect is driven by its effects on increasing average household income, the strength of democracy and higher birth rates. The findings underscore the broader role of education policies in addressing health disparities and promoting equity over the long term.

ABSTRACT. This paper leverages granular data on subnational economic ties between 18 main European donor countries and African administrative regions to test whether ownership ties determine aid flows. Using dyadic data at the donor country-ADM2 region level, we examine whether European aid is disproportionately allocated to ADM2 regions with stronger economic ties to the donor, proxied by Orbis firm ownership data. Controlling for need-based indicators and various fixed effects, we find that, on average, an additional ownership link in an ADM2 region corresponds to a 9% increase in aid allocation. The effect is robust when using a shift-share IV which instruments the number of affiliates in an aid-recipient region with a variable capturing the impact of credit availability on parent firms. We also explore donor-specific effects and sectoral heterogeneity, highlighting the critical influence of donor economic interests on development finance allocation.

ABSTRACT. The Italian Allowance for Corporate Equity (ACE) has been reinforced for the 2021 fiscal year as a temporary measure to support firms during the economic and health crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Its primary objective was to encourage investments and strengthen the equity base of companies, promoting an increase in share capital and enhancing financial resilience in a context of significant economic uncertainty. This paper aims to verify whether the reinforcement of the Italian ACE system played a significant role in enhancing the stability of Italian firms during the post-COVID period. Specifically, using the alternative Difference in Differences estimator proposed by de Chaisemartin and d’Haultfoeuille on a matched sample, this research seeks to assess the achievement of the primary objective of the policy: reducing corporate debt levels to make firms more robust and less vulnerable to financial distress in case of exogenous shocks. Furthermore, this work aims to evaluate whether the policy has had indirect effects on firms, encouraging them to increase investment levels as a result of their strengthened financial structures. Results show that on average firms that benefitted from the Innovative ACE reduced their debt levels and increase their investment levels. Furthermore, the analysis of the dynamic effects of the policy reveals that the impact of the Innovative ACE persisted over time, despite the enhanced benefits being applicable only for the 2021 fiscal year.

ABSTRACT. We evaluate the impact of Italy’s "Resto al Sud" program on local employment, firm structure, and sectoral dynamics across Southern labour markets. Using a Synthetic Difference-in-Differences framework combined with Principal Component Analysis, we construct a high-dimensional counterfactual to isolate causal effects. Results show positive employment gains and a marked shift toward micro-enterprise formation. However, new firms predominantly emerge in low-innovation sectors, suggesting limited progress toward structural transformation. While the policy stimulates entry and mitigates regional disparities, it risks reinforcing existing weaknesses absent complementary measures to support firm upgrading and innovation ecosystems.

ABSTRACT. This paper explores how the structure and content of information sources influence public support for different environmental policy instruments. Using a large-scale representative dataset from the Italian “Multiscopo” survey (2016–2022) and non-linear regression methods, it examines individual preferences toward fines, economic incentives, and technical improvements aimed at enhancing waste sorting behaviour. Results show that information sources matter: individuals informed via the web or interpersonal channels such as parents tend to support incentives and technological solutions, while those exposed to politicized sources express greater skepticism, especially toward innovations. Environmental concern emerges as a robust and consistent predictor of support, whereas satisfaction with local services and environmental conditions reduces perceived need for policy interventions. Findings suggest that policy design must consider the informational architecture in which citizens operate. Communication is not merely a delivery mechanism, it is a cognitive filter that influences legitimacy, engagement, and ultimately, policy effectiveness.

ABSTRACT. This paper explores Italian households’ environmental attitudes and awareness, with a focus on the role of demographic and socioeconomic factors. Using data from the October 2024 wave of the Italian Survey of Consumer Expectations (ISCE), we find that awareness of energy efficiency policies is unevenly distributed among the population, and access to financial incentives, such as the Superbonus and Ecobonus schemes, favours higher-income households in Northern Italy and is enhanced by public information campaigns. Economic motives largely drive renovation decisions, while environmental considerations remain secondary. The results highlight the need for more targeted outreach, equitable policy design, and stronger links between climate awareness and behaviour.

ABSTRACT. Recent scientific research suggests that the environment represents an important pathway for the spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This paper is the first to provide causal estimates of the impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on AMR diffusion. I focus on EU countries and the period 2002 to 2019. To pin down causal effects, I use an instrumental variable approach that exploits temperature inversions as a source of exogenous shocks to air pollution. I find that a 1% increase in PM2.5 leads to about a 0.7% increase in average antibiotic resistance, but there is significant heterogeneity across pathogen-antibiotic combinations in their responsiveness to changes in pollution. I then separately estimate the direct impact of pollution on resistance, as well as the impact of an indirect channel via antibiotic consumption. When antibiotic use is accounted for, the direct influence of air pollution on AMR remains sizable and significant. Finally, I provide a counterfactual analysis assessing the impact of alternative air pollution control policies on resistance and compare their effectiveness vis-à-vis interventions aimed at reducing antibiotic use in humans. Findings imply that air pollution policies can be fruitfully leveraged in the fight against AMR propagation.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates visitors’ evaluations of Italian archaeological sites by analysing TripAdvisor reviews. Drawing on a unique dataset that includes the 98 most visited sites and 3,190 online reviews from 2022 and 2023, the study combines subjective data derived from content analysis of the reviews with objective data from the ISTAT census. Econometric modelling is then employed to assess how various site attributes - both observable and perceived - affect visitor satisfaction, as measured by the five-star rating. Overall, the results underscore the importance of guided tours, site conservation, and management outsourcing in shaping positive visitor experiences, with notable differences between Italian and foreign visitors. The findings provide practical insights for improving site management and informing cultural heritage policy.

ABSTRACT. Despite the expectation that UNESCO World Heritage List (WHL) would boost tourism, researchers have produced mixed and sometimes contradictory results. The present paper evaluates at the site level the impact of signaling a place through UNESCO WHL on tourism flows and visitors’ perception. To this aim, we consider cultural heritage sites located in Italy and inscribed between 2011 and 2021. This study is innovative in more than one aspect. First, it is an investigation of the effects of the WHL where the presence of a counterfactual allows a causal interpretation of the results. To identify the counterfactual, we extract the potential UNESCO sites from the Baedeker's guidebooks’ index entries. In this way, we build a sample of culturally relevant places that we also geo-localize at the municipality level. Additionally, text analysis on Baedeker guidebooks also allows us to control the site's cultural endowment, an essential yet often neglected aspect. Secondly, exploiting big data from TripAdvisor, we analyze site-specific unconventional measures of tourism. TripAdvisor reviews provide measures of both tourism visits to a geographical area and tourists' perceptions via the platform's rating system. The effects of the WHL are measured quantitatively using a staggered difference-in-difference setup allowing for the treatment to be in multiple time periods. Preliminary results on 2,416 Italian historical cultural sites show a positive impact of the WHL on tourism visits, but negative impacts on tourists’ perception.

ABSTRACT. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Venice’s recently implemented fiscal measure, namely “contributo d’accesso” - a daily access fee for daily visitors - on mitigating overtourism. We use 24 months mobile phone data that collects the number of visitors, both daily visitors and overnight tourists and their provenance, comparing Venice to Florence, another Italian city facing similar tourism pressures but without entry fees. Additionally, we examine a possible consequence of the daily access fee, such as a potential shift in daily visitors’ patterns to other days in which the fee is not required. Our results aim to provide policy insights for cities dealing with the global issue of overtourism

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy within the original group of countries that first joined the European Monetary Union (EMU), over the period 1995–2019. Using a Time-Varying Coefficient (TVC) model, we estimate the degree of fiscal cyclicality on an annual and country-specific basis under both ex-post and real-time frameworks. This distinction proves to be essential, as the ex-post approach appears to obscure the actual cyclical stance of fiscal policy. Within this context, we construct a specific index to quantify the progressive tightening of European fiscal rules and assess its potential impact on the cyclical pattern of the cyclically-adjusted primary balance. A panel analysis, conducted using Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and Generalised Least Squares (GLS) estimators, reveals that fiscal rules have likely exacerbated the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy – particularly when assessed (more accurately) in real-time terms. Given the recent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact, which continues to rely on problematic concepts such as the NAWRU and the output gap, these findings are of critical importance for the future evaluation of fiscal dynamics in the euro area.

ABSTRACT. The allocation of intergovernmental transfers represents a critical intersection between fiscal federalism and electoral politics. While normative theories of fiscal federalism suggest that transfers should address vertical fiscal imbalances and promote horizontal equity the political economy literature has increasingly recognized that these transfers often serve strategic electoral purposes. This paper examines how central governments strategically allocate transfers to subnational jurisdictions to maximize electoral gains, drawing on both theoretical frameworks and empirical evidence in the Italian framework. The novelty lies in applying mixture models combined with concomitant variables specifically in the public finance domain

ABSTRACT. The Covid-19 pandemic caused a global economic crisis, leading governments to provide substantial State Aid to support firms. This paper examines the effectiveness of COVID-related financial support in Spain and Italy, focusing on its impact on firm recovery. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach combined with propensity score weighting, it compares outcomes of similar firms receiving aid to those without. The results show significant benefits for micro-firms, including mitigated turnover declines and increased investments in both tangible and intangible assets. The findings highlight the critical role of government support in business survival and recovery, especially for SMEs, during the pandemic.

ABSTRACT. This paper develops a formal model of electoral competition in which parties first choose their platforms and then allocate campaign resources that serve both persuasive and mobilizational purposes. Voters, in turn, endogenously sort into ideological and impressionable types. We characterize a unique subgame perfect equilibrium and derive comparative statics that illustrate how the returns to mobilization and persuasion shape equilibrium platforms, campaign spending, and turnout. Among other results, we show that while campaign spending and polarization do not necessarily move in the same direction, turnout consistently increases with polarization.

ABSTRACT. We study a legislative-bargaining divide-the-pie game in which some legislators have the ability to affect the amount of resources to be distributed (positively or negatively). If included in the winning coalition, these legislators cooperate and increase the size of the pie. If excluded, they sabotage and decrease it. Cooperation and sabotage produce significant changes in the equilibrium allocation relative to Baron and Ferejohn (1989): The bargaining position of cooperating and sabotaging legislators improves, and thus they are more likely to be included in the winning coalition—which may be larger-than-minimum. Some of these legislators may be excluded from the winning coalition, creating inefficient output losses. Moreover, output losses increase with legislators’ patience.

ABSTRACT. This study explores the potential for AI-powered chatbots to strengthen democracy by boosting political knowledge and engagement through better access to political information. We develop and evaluate BallotBot, an AI chatbot with access to official voter guide information from the November 2024 referendums in California. In a pre-registered three-wave survey experiment in the weeks around election day, participants (California voters) were randomly assigned to use either BallotBot or a traditional digital voter guide to answer questions about ballot initiatives. BallotBot access improved participants’ ability to answer in-depth questions, reduced overconfidence, lowered the perceived cost of acquiring information for less-informed participants, and fostered greater engagement with political information. However, it had no clear effect on self-reported turnout or the direction of voting.

ABSTRACT. People with different attitudes to risk have different views on the extent to which society should invest in certain (risky) projects. This paper presents a theory of optimal provision of a (risky) public good when individuals have heterogeneous preferences for risk. The public good has an insurance purpose as it allows individuals to shift risk from private to public consumption. On the one hand, private provision of the public good is inefficient because people do not internalise the insurance gains of the other agents. On the other, public provision might fail to achieve the (ex-ante) first best outcome if agents cannot be targeted and compensated when the optimal policy does not reflect their specific risk preferences. When the government has full information, this paper argues that distorting intertemporal decisions by taxing safe capital income, on top of nonlinear labour earnings taxation, might be welfare-improving as it allows to increase insurance by changing individual savings behaviour while reducing labour-supply distortions.

ABSTRACT. The paper evaluates the impact of the reform of the judicial map on the functioning of Italian civil justice. Between 2013 and 2014, several small first-instance courts and all branch offices were abolished and merged, resulting in a significant increase in the size of the courts and the scale of civil justice provision. The findings suggest that the reform caused a reduction in the demand for justice, likely due to the higher costs associated with the increased distance to the courts. This effect was concentrated in matters where the claimant has more discretion in initiating the case or can reasonably access to alternative dispute resolution procedures. On the supply side, the reform increased the number of resolved cases and shortened their length. These improvements are concentrated on more complex matters and initially less efficient courts, which benefited the most from increased scale and specialization.

ABSTRACT. We present a theoretical model that integrates strategic interaction, stochas- tic and heterogeneous returns, and social preferences to analyze individ- ual contributions to public goods at both local and national levels. Our framework captures the complex trade-offs individuals face when allocat- ing resources across nested collective action problems, where returns are not only uncertain, but also vary across (groups of) individuals. A cen- tral result of the analysis is the endogenous shift from inequality aversion to risk aversion: as the variance in marginal per capita returns increases, individuals perceive higher risk and lower expected utility, leading to a reduction in their willingness to contribute. This transformation reveals how inequality and uncertainty jointly undermine cooperation, highlight- ing the behavioral mechanisms through which structural features of pub- lic goods provision can weaken collective investment.

ABSTRACT. This study examines how accessibility to public healthcare affects the uptake of medical loans. We first combine administrative data on Italian healthcare services with a large dataset of securitized consumer loans from 2017 to 2022. We find that a decline in the availability of public-sector doctors significantly increases the likelihood of individuals taking out medical loans, relative to other types of consumer credit. We then present novel experimental evidence showing that longer waiting times for public healthcare causally increase demand for medical loans. This effect is driven by a shift in demand from public to private healthcare, with lower-income individuals in particular relying on medical loans to finance private treatment. These findings underscore the financial burden imposed by deficiencies in public healthcare systems.

ABSTRACT. We study the drivers of regional-level public healthcare expenditure (HCE) in Italy, focusing on ageing. After analysing the time-series properties of HCE, we estimate an Error Correction Model to disentangle the short- from the long-run effects of ageing on HCE. We find that an ageing population puts upward pressure on the long-term levels of HCE as the share of individuals aged between 65 and 85 years increases; conversely, the share of individuals aged 85 years or older does not impact HCE. In contrast, political economy factors (the proximity to the following regional government election) significantly affect expenditure in the short run. Consistently with this finding, we show that, in the Regions with high levels of social capital, the share of votes to centre-left coalitions - which traditionally propose platforms characterized by higher levels of public social expenditures than other coalitions - increases with the share of the elderly. Hence, analysis of HCE should also account for the role of the elderly as voters and not only as consumers of services.

ABSTRACT. We develop a general equilibrium model to examine how alternative public instruments - taxation, transfers, and productivity-enhancing spending - shape the allocation of resources between hospital and territorial healthcare services. The model explicitly incorporates the co-production of long-term care, combining direct (family) and professional caregiving. While elderly individuals consume both types of care, modeled as imperfect substitutes, the young contribute either by providing care or by financing professional services. A CES aggregator reflects how public intervention affects the efficiency of caregiving provision. The analysis highlights how the choice and calibration of fiscal tools influence the mix of care modes and affect welfare distribution across population groups.

ABSTRACT. The integration of functional and spatial data in clustering methods is an increasingly explored topic in regional and urban economics. In the analysis of regional patterns, it is often essential to identify clusters of production units that are not only similar in terms of their temporal evolution, but also geographically coherent. In this paper, we introduce a novel spatial algorithm, validated through both simulated and real-world data, aimed at achieving regional segmentation based on territorial behavior over time. The real-world data, focusing on health tax detractions at the municipal level in Italy, uncovers distinct geographical clusters, within which the level and trend of detractions display significant similarity.

ABSTRACT. We study the effect of corporate tax cuts on business activity using the population of firms in Sweden. For identification, we exploit the abolishment of the municipal corporate income tax in Sweden in 1985, which created variation in corporate tax changes faced by different municipalities. We find that corporate tax cuts lead to expansion of business activity (number of establishments) and increase employment in large firms. However, we find no significant impact of the reform on this outcomes for small firms.

ABSTRACT. Climate change poses significant risks to Italian Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). While climate risks are often presumed to incentivize adaptation, misaligned risk perceptions can impede effective responses. This paper investigates the gap between actual and perceived climate risk and its effect on adaptation strategies, using primary data from a representative sample of 1,500 Italian SMEs. Our findings show that firms located in high-risk areas are not more likely to adapt. However, companies that perceive themselves as highly vulnerable are more likely to adapt. Regarding the make-or-buy crossroad for adaptation, we find that firms are most likely to pursue internal upgrade strategies at moderate levels of perceived vulnerability. We recommend targeted policies to enhance risk awareness through tailored communication campaigns, the promotion of vulnerability assessments, and financial support for internal adaptation efforts.

ABSTRACT. This study examines the impact of Climate Change Policy shocks on labor market dynamics in Italian regions from 2013 to 2019. With the European Central Bank’s policy rate at the effective lower bound, these shocks had an overall expansionary effect on employment.Analysing online job postings, we find that demand for "green" jobs outpaced demand for "brown" jobs, driving significant labor market reallocation, which varies across sectors, and increasing the need for green skills. This shift reflects a broader transition toward energy-efficient production, aligning with theoretical expectations of labor market responses to climate policies.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the impact of energy efficiency on energy poverty and examines the mitigating effect of the rebound effect within the Italian residential energy sector. Using a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) model, the study overcomes limitations in existing models that assume a zero-rebound effect. The analysis aims to provide policymakers with improved insights into how energy efficiency influences energy poverty.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates the testable implications of revealed preference analysis for aggregate object allocations. Without an access to individual preferences, we explore whether there exists a profile of type-based preferences—where individuals of the same type share identical preferences—that can make the observed allocation as either (i) Individually Rational and Pareto Efficient or (ii) Weak-core Stable and Pareto Efficient. For each equilibrium concept, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions under which the observed allocation can be rationalized as consistent with the corresponding optimality criteria.

ABSTRACT. This paper investigates how individual ideologies shape expert opinions over policy trade-offs among economic stability, saving as many lives as possible, and social outcomes during crises. Using survey data from over 7,400 scientists across 55 disciplines collected during the first wave of COVID-19, we examine how conservatism, belief in individual responsibility, and tolerance for inequality lead to favor economic stability over health and social concerns. The findings highlight the importance of underlying value orientations - even among experts - in shaping policy choices under uncertainty, contributing to our understanding of decision-making in high-stakes political and economic contexts.

ABSTRACT. Understanding individuals’ beliefs, preferences, and motivations is essential in social sciences. Recent technological advancements—notably, large language models (LLMs) for analyzing open-ended responses and the diffusion of voice messaging— have the potential to significantly enhance our ability to elicit these dimensions. This study investigates the differences between oral and written responses to openended survey questions. Through a series of randomized controlled trials across three surveys (focused on AI, public policy, and international relations), we assigned respondents to answer either by audio or text. Respondents who provided audio answers gave longer, though lexically simpler, responses compared to those who typed. By leveraging LLMs, we evaluated answer informativeness and found that oral responses differ in both quantity and quality, offering more information and containing more personal experiences than written responses. These findings suggest that oral responses to open-ended questions can capture richer, more personal insights, presenting a valuable method for understanding individual reasoning.

ABSTRACT. The present study examined the impact of risk and ambiguity on environmental donations. Using a dictator game, the research investigated the behavior of student donors in a laboratory experiment in which the recipient was an environmental agency financing sustainable projects. The findings showed that participants used objective risk as a justification to avoid donating, particularly when the risks associated with the donation’s outcome were explicit. Risk- and ambiguity-averse participants tended to place greater weight on the potential benefits of pro-environmental actions over their uncertain drawbacks. Additionally, participants’ perceived level of ambiguity—and the general difficulty they faced in assessing objective probabilities—tended to increase selfish behavior, suggesting a link between cognitive abilities, generosity, and pro-environmental decision-making. Finally, regarding the timing of decisions, contributions seemed to be driven by instantaneous and intuitive decisions.

ABSTRACT. The private provision of environmental public goods is the objective of many payment schemes for ecosystem services. However, voluntary market-based mechanisms will not ensure an efficient supply unless production is fully subsidized through public resources. Faced with this limitation, the literature on payment schemes for ecosystem services has not paid sufficient attention to the theory of impure public goods and, with it, to a class of green products with joint private and public characteristics that offer various escape routes from the dilemmas of public goods provision. Most significantly, there is little empirical or experimental research addressing whether policies to support markets for green goods should emphasize their public or private benefits. In this paper we report a field experiment based on a reward crowdfunding campaign. Social media users were randomly exposed to advertisement messages that framed the same impure public good with selective emphasis on either its private or public characteristics. Results indicate that the two framings may have drastically different effects on the early stages of consumer engagement with the advertisement campaign. While framing the good in terms of its private characteristics proved far more effective in this experiment, more broadly the findings suggest that messages concerning specific characteristics of green goods can be counterproductive.

ABSTRACT. Commuting to university is a puzzling topic when living at a short distance from college. Whereas pro-ecological attitudes might call for unimodal cycling to connect to college sites, concerns about road safety may impede shifts to low-impact habits and favour motorized vehicles, resulting in dissonance habits. In this study, we assess the link between motivational mechanisms drawn from the self-determination theory and the propensity to unimodal cycling commuting to college by exploring the role of safety-driven perceptions in urban contexts. Using primary data from an Italian national survey featuring university students living in college cities, we rely on structural equation modelling to test potential mediating effects of road safety on pro-environmental attitudes and cycling commuting habits. Whereas autonomous motivations have a direct effect, not mediated by safety claims, instead controlled motivations, seen as a social rewarding, might need for safe infrastructure and quality of bike paths to effectively foster active commuting at college. From a policy perspective, this study implies that tailored campaigns should be issued to promote safe cycling behaviours targeted to college users living in university cities.