Friday, April 5th

View this program: with abstractssession overviewtalk overview

09:00-10:15 Session 1A: Unemployment Insurance
Mahsa Gholizadeh (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 2
Jeffrey Groen (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
The Success Rate of UI Applicants during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Variation Over Time and Across States (abstract)
Discussant: Michael Navarrete
Michael Navarrete (University of Maryland, United States)
COBOLing Together UI Benefits: How Delays in Fiscal Stabilizers Affect Aggregate Consumption (abstract)
Discussant: Julie Smith
Alexander Henke (Howard University, United States)
Linchi Hsu (Howard University, United States)
Restricting Unemployment Insurance and Crime: Evidence from states declining American Rescue Plan benefits (abstract)
PRESENTER: Alexander Henke
Discussant: Albina Khatiwoda
09:00-10:15 Session 1B: Jobs
Danielle Sandler (US Census Bureau, United States)
Location: YT16
Mike Zabek (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Katherine Lim (USDA: Ecnomic Research Service, United States)
What makes a job better? Survey evidence from job changers (abstract)
Discussant: Eliana Zeballos
Joseph Pickens (United States Naval Academy, United States)
Aaron Sojouner (W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, United States)
Just Cause Protection Under Manager Discrimination (abstract)
PRESENTER: Joseph Pickens
Discussant: Danielle Sandler
Sabrina Pabilonia (U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Victoria Vernon (SUNY Empire State University, United States)
Remote Work, Wages, and Hours Worked in the United States (abstract)
Discussant: Pamela Meyerhofer
09:00-10:15 Session 1C: BLS/BEA Updated Products
Susan Fleck (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 1
Kyle Hood (US Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Private Fixed Investment at the State Level (abstract)
Samuel Fincher (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisitics, United States)
Laurie Salmon (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisitics, United States)
Joseph Njuguna (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Tyra Fails (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisitics, United States)
Revising the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) System (abstract)
PRESENTER: Samuel Fincher
David Johnson (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, United States)
Timothy Smeeding (University of Wisconsin, Madison, United States)
Creating an Integrated System of Data and Statistics on Household Income, Consumption and Wealth: Time to Build (abstract)
PRESENTER: Timothy Smeeding
09:00-10:15 Session 1D: HBCU Environmental Justice Technical Team: Examining Economic and Environmental Disparities and Racial Equity
Catherine Doyle-Capitman (United States Department of Agriculture, United States)
Cari Harris (Morgan State University, United States)
Policy Analytics and an overview of our HBCU CEJST Project (abstract)
Linda Loubert (Morgan State University, United States)
An Overview of the White House's Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool and EPA's EJScreen Tool (abstract)
Linda Loubert (Morgan State University, United States)
The Relevance of economics and environmental justice for HBCUs (abstract)
09:00-10:15 Session 1E: Disability Research
Sharon Stern (US Census Bureau, United States)
Location: Y115
Samuel Tseng (US Department of Labor Office of Disability Employment Policy, United States)
Americans with Disabilities Act and the Six Disability Questions in the American Community Survey (abstract)
Discussant: Andrew Houtenville
Katie Jajtner (University of Wisconsin Madison, United States)
Keisha Solomon (Howard University, United States)
Yang Wang (University of Wisconsin La Follette School of Public Affairs, United States)
Can Social Safety Net Programs Reduce Work Disability? Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit (abstract)
PRESENTER: Keisha Solomon
Discussant: David Wittenburg
Lakshmi Raut (Social Security Administration, United States)
Machine learning imputation of race in statistical estimates of disability and mortality risks using Social Security administrative data (abstract)
Discussant: Loida Tamayo
10:30-12:00 Session 2A: Productivity and Growth
Peter Meyer (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 2
Dominic Smith (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
G. Jacob Blackwood (Amherst College, United States)
Michael Giandrea (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Cheryl Grim (Census Bureau, United States)
Jay Stewart (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Zoltan Wolf (New Light Technologies, United States)
Productivity Dispersion and Structural Change in Retail Trade (abstract)
PRESENTER: Michael Giandrea
Discussant: Scott Ohlmacher
Andreea Rotarescu (Wake Forest University, United States)
Productivity slowdown and firm exit: The ins and outs of banking crises (abstract)
Discussant: Zoltan Wolf
Shotaro Nakamura (Federal Trade Commission, United States)
Rizki Siregar (Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia)
Distributional and Productivity Implications of Regulating Casual Labor: Evidence from Ridesharing in Indonesia (abstract)
PRESENTER: Shotaro Nakamura
Discussant: Michael Giandrea
10:30-12:00 Session 2B: Reality Checks on Conventional Economic Thought
Scott Wentland (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Ritt Keerati (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
The Unintended Consequences of Financial Sanctions (abstract)
Discussant: Patricia Schouker
Sushma Shukla (Piedmont Virginia Community College, United States)
Examining Social and Economic Dynamics: A Comparative Analysis of Varna and Ashrama Systems in Ancient India and Adam Smith's Division of Labor (abstract)
Discussant: Victor Agbar
Victor Agbar (University of Maryland, United States)
nraveling the Haiti Paradox: In-Depth Analysis of Economic Stagnation and the Roots of Corruption (abstract)
Discussant: Sushma Shukla
Steven Payson (University of Maryland, United States)
Scholarship Versus Truthfulness in Economics: How the Euphoria of Publication Recognition Has Obstructed Honesty in Economics (abstract)
Discussant: Sadhabi Thapa
10:30-12:00 Session 2C: Health and Healthcare
Loida Tamayo (Independent, United States)
Location: YT16
Hilary Waldron (US Department of the Treasury, United States)
Elizabeth Sawyer (US Department of the Treasury, United States)
Understanding the Intersection of U.S. COVID-19 Deaths with Age, Geography, Race and Ethnic, and Socioeconomic Factors (abstract)
PRESENTER: Hilary Waldron
Discussant: Andres Mira
Luis Quintero (Johns Hopkins University, United States)
Randall Akee (UCLA, United States)
Emilia Simeonova (Johns Hopkins, United States)
Elliot Charette (University of Minnesota, United States)
Social Mobility Restrictions on and off American Indian Reservations: Effects on Health Care Access and Utilization During COVID-19 (abstract)
PRESENTER: Luis Quintero
Discussant: Hilary Waldron
Jonathan Plante (Office of Advocacy, Small Business Administration, United States)
The Healthcare Industry After COVID-19: Entrepreneurship and Industry Composition (abstract)
Discussant: Brett Matsumoto
Matthew Zahn (Johns Hopkins, United States)
Entry and Competition in Insurance Markets: Evidence from Medicare Advantage (abstract)
Discussant: Brett Matsumoto
10:30-12:00 Session 2D: Mortgage and taxes
Chloe Gagin (IRS, United States)
Location: Y115
Young Jo (CFPB, United States)
Feng Liu (CFPB, United States)
Mortgage Seasonality, Capacity Constraints, and Lender Responses (abstract)
Discussant: Gray Kimbrough
Pau Belda (US Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Capital Gains Taxation and Asset Price Booms and Busts (abstract)
Discussant: Marco Pani
Marco Pani (IMF, United States)
Sergio Martinez Cotto (University of St Gallen, Switzerland)
Capital Flows, Income Inequality, and Housing Prices: A study on the impact of external financing, fiscal policies, and productivity shocks. (abstract)
Discussant: Pau Belda
Andrew McCallum (Federal Reserve, United States)
Michael Navarrete (Maryland, United States)
Why don't taxpayers bunch at kink points? (abstract)
PRESENTER: Andrew McCallum
10:30-12:00 Session 2E: Exploring Workforce System Data and Tools for Advancing Equity
Emily Thomas (Department of Labor, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 1
Ian Page (US Department of Labor, United States)
Equity in WIOA (abstract)
Jamar Cagle (US Department of Labor, United States)
Registered Apprenticeship Partners Information Data System (RAPIDS) (abstract)
Lucas Arbulu (Department of Labor, United States)
Leveraging Labor Market and Skills Information for Effective Sector Strategies (abstract)
Kyle DeMaria (US Department of Labor, United States)
Spatial Analysis in WIOA Programs (abstract)
12:30-13:15 Keynote Talk during Lunch

Tara Sinclair

Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics

U.S. Treasury Department

"Job Creation in the Short and Long Run"

Abstract: The strong recovery from the Covid recession resulted from unprecedented policy action that brought the United States from an unemployment rate that peaked at nearly 15 percent in April of 2020 to an over 50-year low of 3.4 percent by January of 2023.  But there is more work to do.  Our economy can continue to create more and better jobs with the right investments.  In this talk, Dr. Sinclair will discuss some of the economic thinking behind the policies used in a time of economic recovery.  She will then turn to longer-term macroeconomic policy, specifically focusing on policies from Treasury Secretary Yellen’s modern supply side economics framework that can create more and better jobs in the long run.

Biography: Tara M. Sinclair is Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics in the Office of Economic Policy at the Department of Treasury.  Sinclair is on detail from her position as a professor of economics and international affairs at the George Washington University and director of their H.O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting. Prior to joining the Treasury Department, Sinclair was a senior fellow and former chief economist at job search site Indeed.  Sinclair uses her research to connect economic principles with real-world concerns, developing data sources and tools that policymakers can use in their decision-making. She is a sought-after public speaker who regularly consults with public officials, business leaders, and the press on issues related to business cycles, labor market dynamics, forecasting, big data, and macroeconomic policy. Dr. Sinclair earned her PhD in economics from Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri in 2005.

Location: Grossman Hall 2
13:30-15:00 Session 3A: Racial Disparities
Sarah Atkinson (United States Department of Agriculture, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 2
Benjamin Kay (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Albina Khatiwoda (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Diversity at the Divide: Challenging Border County Representativeness in State Policy Studies (abstract)
PRESENTER: Albina Khatiwoda
Discussant: Thomas Hertz
Brianna Felegi (Virginia Tech, United States)
Sergio Barrera (Virginia Tech, United States)
Sarina Heron (Virginia Tech, United States)
Labor Market Shocks and Immigration Enforcement (abstract)
PRESENTER: Brianna Felegi
Discussant: Ritt Keerati
Mingli Zhong (Urban Institute, United States)
Jennifer Andre (Urban Institute, United States)
Racial Differences in Debt Delinquencies and Implications for Retirement Preparedness (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mingli Zhong
Discussant: Young Jo
Kassandra Martinchek (The George Washington University and the Urban Institute, United States)
Young Adults’ Use of Debt and Credit Post-Recession: Racial Disparities and the Effectiveness of State Initiatives to Protect Young Adults Living in Communities of Color (abstract)
Discussant: Abigail Okrent
13:30-15:00 Session 3B: Intellectual Property Research
Michael Giandrea (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Carsten Fink (WIPO, Switzerland)
Christian Helmers (Santa Clara University, United States)
Julian Kolev (USPTO, United States)
Andrew Toole (USPTO, United States)
On your marks! Trademark races and their impact on product introductions (abstract)
PRESENTER: Julian Kolev
Discussant: Mike Andrews
Walter Park (US Patent and Trademark Office, United States)
Gerard Torres (US Patent and Trademark Office, United States)
Andrew Toole (US Patent and Trademark Office, United States)
Ryan Hughes (ADDX and US Patent and Trademark Office, United States)
Real Options in Patenting: Role of Secondary Patent Markets (abstract)
PRESENTER: Gerard Torres
Discussant: Mike Andrews
Mike Andrews (University of Maryland Baltimore County, United States)
Rajkamal Vasu (University of Wisconsin, United States)
Inverting Akerlof: Quantifying Private Information in Markets for Patents (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mike Andrews
Discussant: Walter Park
Peter Meyer (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Aeronautics patentees and their strategies, 1880-1918 (abstract)
Discussant: Ryan Safner
13:30-15:00 Session 3C: Housing Prices, Measurement, and Policy
Gary Cornwall (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Location: YT16
Joaquin Garcia-Cabo (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Eva de Francisco (BEA, United States)
Homeownership and job separations: a surprising mix (abstract)
Discussant: Carter Bryson
Scott Wentland (US Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
When the Price is Right: Home Value Misperception and Measurement of Wealth Disparities (abstract)
Discussant: Luis Quintero
Justin Contat (Federal Housing Finance Administration, United States)
The Time-On-The-Market Gradient (abstract)
Discussant: Kyle Hood
Jeremy Moulton (University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill, United States)
Monetary Policy and the Housing Market (abstract)
Discussant: Eva de Francisco
13:30-15:00 Session 3D: Pay
Jay Stewart (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Location: Y115
Julie Smith (Lafayette College, United States)
Who gains from a tight labor market? (abstract)
Discussant: Mahsa Gholizadeh
Matthew Thomas (Federal Trade Commission, United States)
Regulation of Wages and Hours (abstract)
Discussant: David Byrne
Ariel Binder (U.S. Census Bureau, United States)
Amanda Eng (U.S. Census Bureau, United States)
Kendall Houghton (U.S. Census Bureau, United States)
Andrew Foote (U.S. Census Bureau, United States)
The Gender Pay Gap and Its Determinants across the Human Capital Distribution (abstract)
PRESENTER: Ariel Binder
Discussant: Jeffrey Groen
Pamela Meyerhofer (Federal Trade Commission, United States)
Wendy Stock (Montana State University, United States)
Equality Pays: Equal Pay Laws and Women’s Life Choices (abstract)
Discussant: Danielle Sandler
13:30-15:00 Session 3E: Issues with Disability Data Collection
Daniel Davis (Administration for Community Living, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 1
Andrew Houtenville (University of New Hampshire, United States)
Proposed Revisions to the American Community Survey (ACS) Disability (abstract)
Daniel Mont (Center for Inclusive Policy, United States)
Washington Group Disability Question Sets (abstract)
Sharon Stern (US Census Bureau, United States)
Disability Content of the Survey of Income and Program Statistics (SIPP) (abstract)
Purvi Sevak (Mathematica, United States)
David Wittenburg (Mathematica, United States)
Use of Administrative Records in Disability Research (abstract)
PRESENTER: David Wittenburg
15:15-16:45 Session 4A: Climate Change and Economic Growth
Melvyn Sacks (Society of Government Economists, United States)
Location: YT16
Alice Tianbo Zhang (International Monetary Fund, United States)
Heterogeneous Global Impact of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence from a Panel of 172 Countries over Three Decades (abstract)
Discussant: Julie Smith
Michael Kiley (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Growth at Risk From Climate Change (abstract)
Discussant: Alice Tianbo Zhang
Marina Requena-Mora (ICTA-UAB and IFPRI, United States)
Pau Belda (US Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Economic cycles and material footprints: challenging the environmental kuznets curve (abstract)
Discussant: Michael Kiley
15:15-16:45 Session 4B: Housing
Gray Kimbrough (Federal Housing Finance Agency, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 2
Juan Tomas Sayago Gomez (University of Iowa, United States)
Jhon James Mora (Universidad Icesi, Colombia)
The impact of protest and police controls on housing prices (abstract)
Discussant: Matthew Zahn
Hannah Huihan Zhang (Boston University, United States)
Price Discrimination and Adverse Selection in the U.S. Mortgage Market (abstract)
Discussant: Justin Contat
Prakash Loungani (Johns Hopkins University, United States)
Karan Bhasin (University at Albany, United States)
How Well Do Forecasters Predict U.S. Housing Starts? A First Inspection (abstract)
PRESENTER: Prakash Loungani
Discussant: Gary Cornwall
Sadhabi Thapa (Johns Hopkins University, United States)
Housing Affordability and It's Impact on Income Inequality, Worldwide (abstract)
15:15-16:45 Session 4C: Issues in Tax Administration
Alan Plumley (IRS, United States)
Location: Y115
Jess Grana (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Alan Plumley (Internal Revenue Service, United States)
Alexander McGlothlin (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Daniel Rodriguez (Internal Revenue Service, United States)
Income Visibility and the Compliance Response to Declining Audit Coverage (abstract)
Discussant: Miguel Sarzosa
Thomas Hertz (IRS, United States)
Differences in audit rates by race (abstract)
Discussant: Miguel Sarzosa
Brian Galle (Georgetown University, United States)
Transparency and Tax Compliance: The Case of the UBIT (abstract)
Discussant: Alexander Luttmann
India Lindsay (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Alexander McGlothlin (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Jess Grana (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Alan Plumley (IRS, United States)
The Long-Term Impact of Audits on Nonfiling Taxpayers (abstract)
Discussant: Alexander Luttmann
15:15-16:45 Session 4D: Measurement Challenges
Thesia Garner (Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
David Byrne (Federal Reserve Board of Governors, United States)
Isabel Leigh (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, United States)
Recency Bias and Technical Change: The Case of Cell Phones (abstract)
PRESENTER: Isabel Leigh
Abigail Okrent (USDA ERS, United States)
Megan Sweitzer (USDA ERS, United States)
Chen Zhen (University of Georgia, United States)
Anne Byrne (USDA ERS, United States)
Mary Muth (RTI International, United States)
Validating price indexes constructed using retail scanner data (abstract)
PRESENTER: Abigail Okrent
Discussant: Susan Fleck
Michael Palmedo (U.S. Copyright Office, United States)
Brent Lutes (U.S. Copyright Office, United States)
Ryan Safner (U.S. Copyright Office, United States)
The Geography and Demographics of Copyright Registrations (abstract)
PRESENTER: Michael Palmedo
Discussant: Richard Schwinn
15:15-16:45 Session 4E: Perspectives on Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity on Government Surveys
Christina Dragon (National Institutes of Health, United States)
Location: Grossman Hall 1
Michael Martell (Bard College, United States)
Perspectives on Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity on Government Surveys (abstract)
Mary Eschelbach Hansen (American University, United States)
Perspectives on Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity on Government Surveys (abstract)
Benjamin Harrell (Trinity University, United States)
Perspectives on Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity on Government Surveys (abstract)
Samuel Mann (Rand Corporation, United States)
Perspectives on Collecting Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity on Government Surveys (abstract)
17:00-18:30 Session 5: Poster Session/Reception
Adela Luque (U.S. Census Bureau, United States)
Can It Work for Employers? Evaluating the Expansion of Administrative Records Use beyond Nonemployer Demographic Statistics (NES-D) (abstract)
Maria Tito (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Chris Kurz (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Geng Li (Federal Reserve Board, United States)
Jack Dunbar (University of Pennsylvania, United States)
In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles (abstract)
Emily Thomas (US DOL - Employment and Training Administration, United States)
Kevin Cooksey (DOL Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States)
Childcare employment—before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic (abstract)
PRESENTER: Emily Thomas
Alexander Luttmann (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Thomas Groesbeck (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
The Global Commercial Market for Small Satellite Orbital Launch Services: Determinants of Customers’ Choice of Launch Provider (abstract)
Sarah Atkinson (USDA, United States)
Evaluating USDA Farm Service Agency’s mission to serve credit-constrained farmers and ranchers (abstract)
Sohini Mahapatra (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Rob Lieberthal (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Douglas Amirault (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Juliette Spitaels (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Xingyu Zhang (The MITRE Corporation, United States)
Using Mobility Data to Analyze Healthcare Markets (abstract)
Robert Press (Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, United States)
Unpacking the Declining Receipts Share of Small Firms: Why are They not Keeping Pace? (abstract)
Brian Sloboda (UMGC, United States)
Yaya Sissoko (Indiana University of Pennsylvania, United States)
The External Debt and Its Impact on Economic Growth and Investment in ECOWAS Countries Using Spatial Methods (abstract)
PRESENTER: Brian Sloboda
Pranjali Maneriker (University of Maryland, College Park, United States)
Peru’s Success in Improving Child Nutrition Outcomes (abstract)
Mahsa Gholizadeh (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Kyle Hood (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Steven Zemanek (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Christian Awuku-Budu (Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States)
Experimental Quarterly PCE by State Statistics (abstract)
PRESENTER: Mahsa Gholizadeh
Julie Do (University of Maryland, Baltimore County, United States)
Cristina Miller (USDA Rural Development, United States)
Spatiotemporal Variations in Ethnic and Racial Disparities of U.S. Heart Disease Mortality (abstract)
Ran Bi (SAS Institute, United States)
Yijie Wang (School of Business and Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia)
Utilizing Text Mining AI approaches in US Healthcare patents to Inform Strategic Policy Guidance for the U.S. Government (abstract)
Eliana Zeballos (ERS - USDA, United States)
Wilson Sinclair (ERS - USDA, United States)
A Structural Decomposition Analysis of U.S. Food Expenditures at the State Level (abstract)
PRESENTER: Eliana Zeballos
Jeffrey Kuo (George Washington University, United States)
How Bilateral Trade Agreement Reshape the Political Landscape - In the Case of Taiwan and ECFA (abstract)