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09:00 | Research of Students’ Performances in Higher Education through Sequence Analysis SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. The paper aims to prove how suitable the Sequence Analysis’ tools are for studying the complexity of Italian Higher Education System. Through longitudinal administrative data of a cohort (AY 2001-2002) of enrolled for the first time at Sapienza University of Roma, this approach permits to: (1) describe the phenomena of late graduate and late performance (retention); (2) identify different type of students’ dropping out (attrition); (3) evaluate others particular phenomena (that are frequent in Italy) that can delay the students’ career (as such as intra or extra faculty mobility). |
09:25 | The age of reproduction. The effect of university tuition fees on enrolment in Quebec and Ontario, 1946–2011 SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. We are interested in the role tuition fees play in social reproduction. We use retrospective biographical data from a series of surveys on family events, long series on tuition fees and methods from event history analysis to study the effect of the level of tuition fees on university enrolment in two Canadian provinces, Quebec and Ontar-io. We focus on the variation of their effect on enrolment according to social origin, province, language and immigration status. Not con-sidering age, the level of tuition fees increases enrolment for children of highly educated parents or immigrants, has no effect among the Quebec English-speaking, but decreases enrolment in all other groups. However, in most groups, the deterring effect increases with age. Among immigrants and their children, as well as among the Ontario English-speaking, the slope of the relation between the effect of tuition fees and age is markedly steep: In these groups, there seems to be a limited age window during which parents are willing to invest in their children’s education. |
09:50 | Tuition Fees and Social Segregation: Lessons from a Natural Experiment a the University of Paris 9-Dauphine SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. Using a natural experiment, a sharp rise in tuition fees in some of the programmes at the University of Paris 9-Dauphine, we study the impact of tuition fees on students’ pathways, and outcomes. We apply an optimal matching method to the national database of students’ registrations (SISE) to define a typology of pathways. We then use a non-ordered multinomial logit model to evaluate the impact of the rise in tuition fees on the types of pathways selected by the university. We show that there is a significant impact on these pathways. The increase in tuition fees reduces geographic and social mobility, thereby accentuating phenomena of social segregation. Furthermore, contrary to what some of the studies assert, the rise does not appear to encourage greater effort: we find no impact on the graduation success rate. |
10:15 | A Typology of Delayed Graduation: Using Sequence Analysis of Enrollment Data to Uncover Heterogeneous Paths to a Degree SPEAKER: Andrew Wallace ABSTRACT. Taking more than the “traditional” amount of time to graduate is an increasingly common path for undergraduate students at both the baccalaureate and associate levels. The expectation that these degrees can be earned in four and two years respectively is less likely to hold for students, especially those at public uni-versities. This study uses transcript data from a large, urban public university sys-tem to examine patterns of enrollment among delayed completers. For the purpos-es of the analysis, delayed graduation is defined as more than six years for a baccalaureate degree and four years for an associate degree. |
09:00 | Measuring sequence complexity - A conceptual and empirical comparison of two composite complexity indices SPEAKER: Georgios Papastefanou ABSTRACT. For a causality oriented analysis of sequences, namely by estimating their covariation with exogenous social variables like social-economic status, gender, age or attributes of family of origin, structural pattern, which characterizes a sequence, has to be represented by a quantifying indicator. One way is to capture a sequence’s complexity, by constructing an indicator with a specific quantitative range. Two prominent approaches, Gabadinho et al. (2011) and Elzinga (2010) propose each a different approach to incorporate crucial features of sequence patterning like variety (qualitative differentiation of states), variability (temporal differentiation of states as episodes) and regularity (repetition of subsequences) . As both indicators want to be named as complexity indices, we will label the Gabadinho et al. approach as complexity C and Elzinga’s definition as complexity T. In a detailed conceptual analysis we discuss the foundation and restrictions of their components like transition rate, normalized entropy, number of distinct successive states and normalized episode duration variability. Further we examine interchangeability of C and T as is stated by Gabadinho et al (2011). We find – based on comparing C and T for nine systematically varied sequences – that there is nearly no co-variation between C and T. A more extensive empirical analysis of 2000 sequences of leisure activities on Sunday, based on the German Time Use Survey of 2001/2002, we find seemingly support for the interchangeability thesis as it is reflected in a Pearson correlation score of .94 between C and T. But a multivariate modeling of T and C of leisure time sequences on Sunday as outcome of social determinants like gender, age, family status, net household income, household size, education status and occupational status reveal significant differences between the models. This points to the finding, that T and C might represent (at least partially) substantially different processes of sequence patterning. This assumption finds support in modeling the social effects on the components of C and T separately. In sum, we conclude that it might be more adequate to analyse the components of C and T separately instead of their joint incorporation into C and T, because the components especially like normalized entropy and number distinct successive subsequences seem to represent different processes of sequence differentiation like variety and regularity. |
09:25 | Measuring early employment insecurity and its effects SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. In this paper we investigate the early employment insecurity of young people’s career by applying the “index of complexity”. This index measures the entropy and the number of transitions within a sequence (Gabadinho et al 2010). The entropy indicates the distribution of different positions within a sequence, hence its higher of lower degree of predictability; the number of transitions reveals the instability of the trajectory. This index is used to described the quality of young people’s trajectories in the UK using the UKHLS, also known as Understanding Society. The index is calculated for the trajectories covering the first four waves (2009-2013). The index is then used to unveil the relationship between a young person’s past trajectory and their labour market position in the fifth wave (2013-2014). We expect that young people with unstable trajectories are more likely to be out of the labour market or in temporary employment. This will confirm the scarring effect of early employment precariousness. |
09:50 | Binary Sequence Dynamics applied to Career Success SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. In this paper we propose a measure to quantify successfulness in binary sequences that can be meaningfully interpreted as sequences of Successes and Failures. In order to operationalize the concept of successful and less successful sequences, we formulate some general properties that a measure of successfulness must adhere to, construct a measure that does fulfill these requirements and, finally, show that the measure can be modeled in a theoretically meaningful way. Furthermore, we show an application of our measure to model the successfulness of binary sequences on the labor market. |
10:15 | Turnover of individuals with similar career sequences as predictor of employer change SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. Occupational career patterns are conceptualized as sequences that consist of individuals’ occupational states and employer changes. These sequences are often similar, as many careers are path dependent and follow general patterns. Our hypothesis is that employee turnover can be predicted by employer changes of individuals with similar career trajectories. We derived 1,651 career sequences that incorporate 20 years of individuals’ occupational positions from a large national panel. The similarity of career sequences was assessed with the optimal matching method. We then used the resulting similarity measures as weights for a novel predictor of individuals’ employer changes. In support of our hypothesis, employer changes in similar career sequences predicted turnover. The method introduced in this study could help in reinforcing the use of prospective, longitudinal designs in career literature. |
Using Sequence Analysis to Understand the Family-Life Course: Developments and Future Perspectives
13:30 | Latent-transition approach to evolution of household debt possession patterns in Poland SPEAKER: Piotr Białowolski ABSTRACT. Based on latent transition approach we investigate evolution of debt possession patterns in Poland. We obtain interteporally comparable segments of debt holders and show highly significant role of auto-regressive and life-cycle factors in shaping transitions between the segments. With data from three waves (2011 – 2015) and over 36,000 responses from the biennial panel study Polish households – Social Diagnosis - we show that: (1) transition probabilities from any of the indebted states to any other indebted state are higher than transition probabilities to non-active state; (2) households located in a given segment are most likely to remain in the segment, if not for oth-er factors; (3) transitions between segments are shaped by socio-economic covariates - age of household head, income and number of household members; (4) their role differs very considerably be-tween the segments showing that different socio-economic traits shape the evolution of segments; (5) probabilities of mortgage debt, debt for durables or renovation are positively related to income and in line with life cycle predictions, which indicates the role of long term factors in their acquisition; (6) consumption debt is less age related and in some groups also inversely related to income, which shows its short term dependence. The results of the study indicate also that (1) relationship between debt and income depends on relative preva-lence of segments on the market and (2) that influence of life-cycle factors can be missing at the aggregate level if mortgage debt does not dominate. |
13:55 | Think Fast, Feel Fine, Live Long: A 29-Year Study of Cognition, Health, and Survival in Middle-Aged and Older Adults SPEAKER: unknown ABSTRACT. In a 29-year study of 6203 individuals with ages ranging 41–96 years at initial assessment, we evaluated the relative and combined influence of 65 mortality risk factors—which included socio-demographic variables, lifestyle attributes, medical indices, and multiple cognitive abilities. Analytical methods included multiple imputation (for missing data), longitudinal factor and latent growth models, random forest survival analysis (i.e., a data mining approach), and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis. Reductions in mortality risk were most associated with higher self-rated health, being female, fewer years smoking, and smaller life span decrements in processing speed. Thus, two psychological variables—subjective health status and processing speed—were among the top survival predictors. We suggest that these psychological attributes, unlike more narrowly defined risk factors, are indicative of (and influenced by) a broad range of health-related behaviors and characteristics. Information about these attributes can be obtained with relatively little effort or cost and—given the tractability of these measures in different cultural contexts—may prove expedient for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of conditions related to increased mortality risk in diverse human populations. |
14:20 | A phase-type model of cohabiting union duration SPEAKER: Jean-Marie Le Goff ABSTRACT. We propose a phase-type model to analyze the duration of non-conjugal cohabit-ing unions. This model is a compartment model with two competing events: the marriage with the partner and the separation of the couple. We suppose that a non-marital union can be characterized by two hidden phases. The first begins at the start of the union and at each moment, people have the possibility to move from this first phase to the second phase during which hazard rates of marriage and of separation differ from the first phase. Investigations on data from the Brit-ish 1958 National Child Study and the 1970 British National Study show that the proposed model fits well with data about the first cohabiting union of interviewed people. Results show that processes of marriage and separation differed between the two cohorts. |